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I think the naive answer is that physics doesn't change when the climate does, just the initial conditions for the day's simulation of the next week's weather.
by jvanderbot 2y ago
I think the naive answer is that physics doesn't change when the climate does, just the initial conditions for the day's simulation of the next week's weather.
And every year over year change is within error bars of the prior years results, once you account for those initial conditions.
- danaris 2y agoAnd if your model is based on physics, then that's fine. But if your model is an LLM (or close cousin) purely based on previous weather patterns, then it may struggle to accurately predict once the underlying conditions change.
- geysersam 2y agoThe less naive answer is that a typical weather model has hundreds of parameters that have been tuned manually over decades of use.