4 ms·

China replaced a one-child policy with a two-child policy in 2015, which was replaced by a three-child policy in 2021. So, far from getting rid of rules for how

China replaced a one-child policy with a two-child policy in 2015, which was replaced by a three-child policy in 2021. So, far from getting rid of rules for how many children you can have a long time ago, they relaxed rules for how many children you can have a short while ago. Also, China isn't rural Alaska, it is a centralized authoritarian surveillance state and not the kind of place one can go off the grid and raise a family. Not that a non-vanishingly-small number of people is doing that anywhere, other than by happenstance in the poorest countries where "off the grid" is the default.

lelandfe 2y ago
The three-child policy was lifted just months later after some outcry: https://fortune.com/2021/07/21/china-three-child-policy-declining-birth-rate-fines/ https://fortune.com/2021/07/21/china-three-child-policy-decl...
RegnisGnaw 2y ago
Its actually not that uncommon. China is not a monolithic entity. Rules are flexible and always have work around. In some cases, rural families that have a girl as a first kid will try again for a boy. They just don't register the girl for hukou.
- PaulHoule 2y ago
  If you study Chinese history you see that central governments have never had as good control over people in the hinterlands as they wished they did and it’s probably not that different now.
wodenokoto 2y ago
It’s been just over a decade since I lived in China in a tier-1 city, but back then it was common to hear things like rural people would have multiple children, with only one registered.
hinkley 2y ago
When we are speaking of children, time is on another scale. An 18 year period creates whole adults from nothing. 2015 means there are legal 10 years olds that would have not been legal before. And I expect some grey area 11 and 12 year olds that are surprisingly mature for their age.
- mapt 2y ago
  To what extent were they retroactively legalized? How difficult did they make registering the births of teens or adults? In the US we like to do things like throw people in prison for dealing marijuana for 20 years, then legalize it, but keep them in because when they did it it was illegal.
bobthepanda 2y ago
As the saying goes in China "the mountains are high and the emperor is far away." China is certainly an impressive surveillance state but the reality is that the geography is so large that it is possible to miss things like human trafficking: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/05/world/asia/xuzhou-china-chained-woman-incident-activists.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/05/world/asia/xu...
alwa 2y ago
TFA sure looks like a huge number of its samples—which correspond to regions that had a ground-truth kind of count due to dam construction—were drawn from China…
makeitdouble 2y ago
> it is a centralized authoritarian surveillance state and not the kind of place one can go off the grid and raise a family. The logistics of centrally surveilling a massive area of land are pretty tough, much more tougher than we imagine I think. Historically independency seeking people learn how to flee from aggressive governments and move to places that make it harder to track them. Including cutting down on written documents that could expose their org., adopting social structures that decentralize leadership etc. It was fascinating to me, I highly recommend checking the Zomia region. e.g.: https://medium.com/@matthijsbijl/welcome-to-zomia-the-anarchist-country-youve-never-heard-of-6d2172da8ef3 https://medium.com/@matthijsbijl/welcome-to-zomia-the-anarch...
lolinder 2y ago
> Also, China isn't rural Alaska, it is a centralized authoritarian surveillance state and not the kind of place one can go off the grid and raise a family. Through some combination of state propaganda (their own and China's) and dystopian fiction like 1984, Westerners drastically overestimate the capabilities of the Chinese state. It would be more accurate to say that China wants to be perceived as a centralized authoritarian surveillance state, because that perception is valuable both domestically and abroad. They absolutely do have a broad surveillance apparatus, but they also have millions of square miles and more than a billion people to surveil and control. Don't forget that we're talking about the government that has been unable to pull together either the political will or the state power to enforce health codes that would be considered table stakes for any developed democracy, ignoring or tolerating disease-spreading wet markets. They appear to pick and choose their authoritarian battles, and if you're not a battle they've chosen you can probably go ignored for a lifetime.
csomar 2y ago
This is hyperbole. It took China until a few years ago to be able to fully control crypto mining which was happening at industrial scale in China. My guess is that the Chinese accepted the draconian one child policy because the famine collectively affected them. They do not accept a lot of other things and the state is not as powerful as you think it is. Another case is covid. The state tried to maintain the lockdown (which was partially supported by some of the population) but at a certain point they can no longer maintain the dissatisfaction and had to fully open back up.
- leidenfrost 2y ago
  There's a good video from CGP Grey about this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rStL7niR7gs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rStL7niR7gs Even the most tyrannical, draconian, egotistical ruler has someone to answer to. And the people second and third in power MUST be happy with the regime, or else everything goes bust.

lelandfe 2y ago

The three-child policy was lifted just months later after some outcry: https://fortune.com/2021/07/21/china-three-child-policy-declining-birth-rate-fines/ https://fortune.com/2021/07/21/china-three-child-policy-decl...

RegnisGnaw 2y ago

Its actually not that uncommon. China is not a monolithic entity. Rules are flexible and always have work around. In some cases, rural families that have a girl as a first kid will try again for a boy. They just don't register the girl for hukou.

PaulHoule 2y ago
If you study Chinese history you see that central governments have never had as good control over people in the hinterlands as they wished they did and it’s probably not that different now.

wodenokoto 2y ago

It’s been just over a decade since I lived in China in a tier-1 city, but back then it was common to hear things like rural people would have multiple children, with only one registered.

hinkley 2y ago

When we are speaking of children, time is on another scale. An 18 year period creates whole adults from nothing. 2015 means there are legal 10 years olds that would have not been legal before. And I expect some grey area 11 and 12 year olds that are surprisingly mature for their age.

mapt 2y ago
To what extent were they retroactively legalized? How difficult did they make registering the births of teens or adults? In the US we like to do things like throw people in prison for dealing marijuana for 20 years, then legalize it, but keep them in because when they did it it was illegal.

bobthepanda 2y ago

As the saying goes in China "the mountains are high and the emperor is far away." China is certainly an impressive surveillance state but the reality is that the geography is so large that it is possible to miss things like human trafficking: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/05/world/asia/xuzhou-china-chained-woman-incident-activists.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/05/world/asia/xu...

alwa 2y ago

TFA sure looks like a huge number of its samples—which correspond to regions that had a ground-truth kind of count due to dam construction—were drawn from China…

makeitdouble 2y ago

> it is a centralized authoritarian surveillance state and not the kind of place one can go off the grid and raise a family. The logistics of centrally surveilling a massive area of land are pretty tough, much more tougher than we imagine I think. Historically independency seeking people learn how to flee from aggressive governments and move to places that make it harder to track them. Including cutting down on written documents that could expose their org., adopting social structures that decentralize leadership etc. It was fascinating to me, I highly recommend checking the Zomia region. e.g.: https://medium.com/@matthijsbijl/welcome-to-zomia-the-anarchist-country-youve-never-heard-of-6d2172da8ef3 https://medium.com/@matthijsbijl/welcome-to-zomia-the-anarch...

lolinder 2y ago

> Also, China isn't rural Alaska, it is a centralized authoritarian surveillance state and not the kind of place one can go off the grid and raise a family. Through some combination of state propaganda (their own and China's) and dystopian fiction like 1984, Westerners drastically overestimate the capabilities of the Chinese state. It would be more accurate to say that China wants to be perceived as a centralized authoritarian surveillance state, because that perception is valuable both domestically and abroad. They absolutely do have a broad surveillance apparatus, but they also have millions of square miles and more than a billion people to surveil and control. Don't forget that we're talking about the government that has been unable to pull together either the political will or the state power to enforce health codes that would be considered table stakes for any developed democracy, ignoring or tolerating disease-spreading wet markets. They appear to pick and choose their authoritarian battles, and if you're not a battle they've chosen you can probably go ignored for a lifetime.

csomar 2y ago

This is hyperbole. It took China until a few years ago to be able to fully control crypto mining which was happening at industrial scale in China. My guess is that the Chinese accepted the draconian one child policy because the famine collectively affected them. They do not accept a lot of other things and the state is not as powerful as you think it is. Another case is covid. The state tried to maintain the lockdown (which was partially supported by some of the population) but at a certain point they can no longer maintain the dissatisfaction and had to fully open back up.

leidenfrost 2y ago
There's a good video from CGP Grey about this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rStL7niR7gs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rStL7niR7gs Even the most tyrannical, draconian, egotistical ruler has someone to answer to. And the people second and third in power MUST be happy with the regime, or else everything goes bust.