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My opinion is that Tesla is on the precipice of a disaster. Nothing to do with their vehicles themselves but just the market cycles. Apparently, a Tesla/EV Arma

My opinion is that Tesla is on the precipice of a disaster. Nothing to do with their vehicles themselves but just the market cycles. Apparently, a Tesla/EV Armageddon is coming in 2026 where returning EV leases are supposed to skyrocket by over 230%. Many Car Channels were talking about this last year saying to hold off on buying a used EV because the market is about to be saturated in 2026. I found an article from Nov 24 that discusses the situation. https://www.autobodynews.com/news/returning-ev-lease-volume-set-to-spike-230-by-2026 https://www.autobodynews.com/news/returning-ev-lease-volume-...

mytailorisrich 2y ago
Here in the UK my understanding is that the majority of EVs are leased, especially because more and more employers offer salary sacrifice schemes. I.e. the monthly lease payment is deducted from salary pre-tax, which means an effective discount of 40+% as people avoid income tax on those payments. There are growing warnings that the market is heading for a crash because of the incoming glut of returned vehicles hitting the used market combined with the low resale value EVs have to begin with.
SonOfKyuss 2y ago
And Tesla seems to be underperforming the overall EV market in terms of growth and market share lately. It will be interesting to see how that trend continues
etempleton 2y ago
I agree, Tesla was in a precarious position before Elon Musk decided to sabotage the company by being, to put it mildly, derisive. It would be hard to find a way to sabotage the company more effectively. Globally, BYD and other Chinese-made electric cars are getting very close to Tesla in terms of price / quality as is Hyundai/Kia and other traditional auto makers. There are also premium upstarts like Lucid and Rivian that are cutting into the high-end not to mention BMW, Audi, Mercedes and every other car manufacturer. Tesla is getting squeezed and their development of new car models is not nearly fast enough to keep consumers interested. A lot of right-leaning people won't buy an electric car out principle of it being seen as "green" and now a lot of left-leaning people won't buy a Tesla out of principle because they dislike Elon. And even if you ignore all of that or don't care you have to deal with the fact that if you drive a Tesla lot of people will automatically think you are a jerk. Add all this to a still wildly inflated stock price and you have a potential nightmare scenario for Tesla as a company.
- tim333 2y ago
  Musk say they are going to sell many robots.
tim333 2y ago
It's kind of the case with any fancy car though that you sell a bunch to wealthy people for $70k each, then three years later they are sold to average people for $30k and then eight years later to the hard up for $5k. It's business as usual. I bought my thing around the $5k end.

mytailorisrich 2y ago

Here in the UK my understanding is that the majority of EVs are leased, especially because more and more employers offer salary sacrifice schemes. I.e. the monthly lease payment is deducted from salary pre-tax, which means an effective discount of 40+% as people avoid income tax on those payments. There are growing warnings that the market is heading for a crash because of the incoming glut of returned vehicles hitting the used market combined with the low resale value EVs have to begin with.

SonOfKyuss 2y ago

And Tesla seems to be underperforming the overall EV market in terms of growth and market share lately. It will be interesting to see how that trend continues

etempleton 2y ago

I agree, Tesla was in a precarious position before Elon Musk decided to sabotage the company by being, to put it mildly, derisive. It would be hard to find a way to sabotage the company more effectively. Globally, BYD and other Chinese-made electric cars are getting very close to Tesla in terms of price / quality as is Hyundai/Kia and other traditional auto makers. There are also premium upstarts like Lucid and Rivian that are cutting into the high-end not to mention BMW, Audi, Mercedes and every other car manufacturer. Tesla is getting squeezed and their development of new car models is not nearly fast enough to keep consumers interested. A lot of right-leaning people won't buy an electric car out principle of it being seen as "green" and now a lot of left-leaning people won't buy a Tesla out of principle because they dislike Elon. And even if you ignore all of that or don't care you have to deal with the fact that if you drive a Tesla lot of people will automatically think you are a jerk. Add all this to a still wildly inflated stock price and you have a potential nightmare scenario for Tesla as a company.

tim333 2y ago
Musk say they are going to sell many robots.

tim333 2y ago

It's kind of the case with any fancy car though that you sell a bunch to wealthy people for $70k each, then three years later they are sold to average people for $30k and then eight years later to the hard up for $5k. It's business as usual. I bought my thing around the $5k end.