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I am reading a great book right now. The Tao of Deception: Unorthodox Warfare in Historic and Modern China by Ralph Sawyer. I am not sure I would listen to an

I am reading a great book right now. The Tao of Deception: Unorthodox Warfare in Historic and Modern China by Ralph Sawyer. I am not sure I would listen to anyone but Ralph Sawyer at this point in English on the subject. China is not going to invade Taiwan the way the US would invade Hawaii in the same situation. That is just not how China conducts warfare. Taiwan is another level with all this. What matters is the PLA views it as reclaiming. They have to win by soft power and not "win" like the US going in and blowing the shit out of Iraq. Disturb the water and catch a fish. In that context, something like DeepSeek is a much bigger deal as far as the objectives. 1000X more than this decoy.

suraci 2y ago
what you said is how China planed before 2019, reality's development makes it impossible to act as previously planned, now, there's 0 chance that the CCP can take back Taiwan without bombs however, it really depends on the definitions of 'reclaim' and 'win' China's purpose is not only to take the land, but also to 'reunite' taiwanese people, so you're right about they are going to need to use soft power to achieve this, so yes, it will not be like what the US did to Hawaii and Iraq btw, I briefly looked through the book you mentioned and was surprised to find that, compared to other Westerners, the author has a very good understanding of China's war history and philosophy. Although it is somewhat one-sided, Chinese military philosophy is very different before and after the Han Dynasty
- neonsunset 2y ago
  The soft power should read here as Uyghur concentration camps.
  - cempaka 2y ago
    It's pretty funny that Westerners are still going on about this largely invented issue after underwriting a brutal genocide in Gaza for almost 18 months. Won't someone please think of the oppressed Muslims!
    - Ruthalas 2y ago
      This seems like quintessential whataboutism. I think expanding on how that concern is "largely invented" would serve your point better. I, at least, would be interested.
      - fspeech 2y ago
        It shows up so naturally that one may think it is not whataboutism at work, even though the reasoning is often not well argued. We could choose to see it not as a moral judgement, but as questioning the justification of efforts pushing for conflicts with China.
  - suraci 2y ago
    you are right this is the real soft power this is the power makes you believe there're genocide in xinjiang without any solid evidence this is the power makes every discussion about gaza were flagged here the real power, it's soft, but it's so strong wonderful, isn't it?
    - neonsunset 2y ago
      100 RMB army will be the first to be turned into landfill when China gets a bit more ambitious. Much like what is currently happening to their North Korean counterparts in the north of my country.
      - suraci 2y ago
        funny, because it seems like the president of south korea is more dangerous than DPRK to the country...
red-iron-pine 2y ago
nah. China built several -- several, like 8+ -- landing ships designed to support an amphibious assault. if soft power was their goal and primary method they wouldn't have spent the resources. while they may not ever do it, a very direct, very violent invasion is absolutely on the table. Taiwan may only even be a secondary objective, since #1 would be sinking the US Navy and shifting the hegemonic balance; they'll get to Taiwan when they can after that.
- jvanderbot 2y ago
  Having a large military capability and not using it is ... Soft power? Is that fair?
  - mc32 2y ago
    Soft power is economic and cultural levers. Hardware is actual military power.
    - mesofile 2y ago
      One term that's specific to this concept of wielding a real but unused military capability is "fleet in being" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fleet_in_being https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fleet_in_being

suraci 2y ago

what you said is how China planed before 2019, reality's development makes it impossible to act as previously planned, now, there's 0 chance that the CCP can take back Taiwan without bombs however, it really depends on the definitions of 'reclaim' and 'win' China's purpose is not only to take the land, but also to 'reunite' taiwanese people, so you're right about they are going to need to use soft power to achieve this, so yes, it will not be like what the US did to Hawaii and Iraq btw, I briefly looked through the book you mentioned and was surprised to find that, compared to other Westerners, the author has a very good understanding of China's war history and philosophy. Although it is somewhat one-sided, Chinese military philosophy is very different before and after the Han Dynasty

neonsunset 2y ago
The soft power should read here as Uyghur concentration camps.
- cempaka 2y ago
  It's pretty funny that Westerners are still going on about this largely invented issue after underwriting a brutal genocide in Gaza for almost 18 months. Won't someone please think of the oppressed Muslims!
  - Ruthalas 2y ago
    This seems like quintessential whataboutism. I think expanding on how that concern is "largely invented" would serve your point better. I, at least, would be interested.
    - fspeech 2y ago
      It shows up so naturally that one may think it is not whataboutism at work, even though the reasoning is often not well argued. We could choose to see it not as a moral judgement, but as questioning the justification of efforts pushing for conflicts with China.
- suraci 2y ago
  you are right this is the real soft power this is the power makes you believe there're genocide in xinjiang without any solid evidence this is the power makes every discussion about gaza were flagged here the real power, it's soft, but it's so strong wonderful, isn't it?
  - neonsunset 2y ago
    100 RMB army will be the first to be turned into landfill when China gets a bit more ambitious. Much like what is currently happening to their North Korean counterparts in the north of my country.
    - suraci 2y ago
      funny, because it seems like the president of south korea is more dangerous than DPRK to the country...

red-iron-pine 2y ago

nah. China built several -- several, like 8+ -- landing ships designed to support an amphibious assault. if soft power was their goal and primary method they wouldn't have spent the resources. while they may not ever do it, a very direct, very violent invasion is absolutely on the table. Taiwan may only even be a secondary objective, since #1 would be sinking the US Navy and shifting the hegemonic balance; they'll get to Taiwan when they can after that.

jvanderbot 2y ago
Having a large military capability and not using it is ... Soft power? Is that fair?
- mc32 2y ago
  Soft power is economic and cultural levers. Hardware is actual military power.
  - mesofile 2y ago
    One term that's specific to this concept of wielding a real but unused military capability is "fleet in being" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fleet_in_being https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fleet_in_being