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> Just show me the pathway to at least 60g/kWh CO2 footprint for Germany. I'm not asking for too much. The limiting factor right now is the fact that we have a

> Just show me the pathway to at least 60g/kWh CO2 footprint for Germany. I'm not asking for too much. The limiting factor right now is the fact that we have about 6GW of coal (and I think about 2GW of gas) production that's always on (those plants primarily provide heat, electricity is a by-product) We decreased coal by 25% since pre-pandemic [0] and coal is responsible for 70-80% of the total emissions [1] (I'd rather use ourworldindata but they only have data up to 2023), which corresponds closely to the 25% reduction of CO2 intensity of electricity generation. So for the 60g/kWh we are 30% of the way there (starting at 400g/kWh). We are currently _not producing_ enough renewables to do significantly more than putting coal (and gas) temporarily to 0. > German electricity imports rose by stunning 23% compared to 2023 That's correct but also irrelevant, as we always had the generation capacity to produce the shortfall ourselves. And yes, we absolutely will need to have some fossil backup capacity. As long as we don't need it often it produces not much CO2 (it's just expensive, hence the capacity market will be required). But that is fine, that is what regulators are there for. > The last year, the maximum price rose to almost $1000 per MWh It was for exactly one hour. And yes, that might still be a problem, if you are on a spot-market rate. But it's also only one of 8440 hours. > The proof is in the pudding. The German "green energy" transition has reached its practical limits. Again: We haven't even reached the point of renewable overproduction (which is the least one would need for any storage solution to even be an option!). This year might be the first one where we will have significant amounts of time where we will have "solar+wind > load" conditions. And this year is, coincidentally, also the one when we will have significant amounts of grid-level batteries installed. And even a one-hour capacity would move your 1000EUR/MWh to 700EUR/MWh. Beyond that it's much harder to estimate, but I would be shocked if 6 hours wouldn't be enough to push that whole day below 500. Still not sure how valuable that is, it's one of 365 days. [0] https://www.energy-charts.info/charts/energy/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&year=-1&timeslider=1&legendItems=4x01u70&interval=year&min=0&max=22 https://www.energy-charts.info/charts/energy/chart.htm?l=en&... [1] https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/DE/all/monthly https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/DE/all/monthly

cyberax 2y ago
> That's correct but also irrelevant, as we always had the generation capacity to produce the shortfall ourselves. Just barely. Germany is now dependent on France and Denmark during Dunkelflaute. It doesn't have enough generating capacity to cover for itself. The last year it happened in November: https://energy-charts.info/charts/power/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&year=2024&interval=month&source=sw&month=11 https://energy-charts.info/charts/power/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&... and Germany got bailed out by its neighbors: https://energy-charts.info/charts/power/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&year=2024&interval=month&source=cbpf_saldo&month=11&stacking=stacked_absolute https://energy-charts.info/charts/power/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&... Germany probably could have managed the last year's Dunkelflaute with the existing coal generation, barely, but it _needs_ those natgas power plants because there's NOTHING renewable that can replace coal. > It was for exactly one hour. And yes, that might still be a problem, if you are on a spot-market rate. But it's also only one of 8440 hours. It was not for just one hour... And even outside of these spikes, the energy is just getting crazy: https://energy-charts.info/charts/price_spot_market/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&year=2024&interval=month&month=12 https://energy-charts.info/charts/price_spot_market/chart.ht... or https://energy-charts.info/charts/price_spot_market/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&year=2025&interval=month&month=01 https://energy-charts.info/charts/price_spot_market/chart.ht... . Compare it to 2019 to be amazed. > Again: We haven't even reached the point of renewable overproduction (which is the least one would need for any storage solution to even be an option!). My prediction for Germany: 1. It will phase out coal and replace it 1-for-1 with natgas. 2. The emission decreases will happen almost exclusively due to coal->natgas transition. My napkin math tells me that it can't go a lot lower than 230g. 3. Germany will not be able to perform the EV or heatpump transition. It'll be quietly sabotaged by the government, because there's no way to provide enough generation.
- tfourb 2y ago
  >3. Germany will not be able to perform the EV or heatpump transition. It'll be quietly sabotaged by the government, because there's no way to provide enough generation. Here are a couple of studies from 2012 and 2013, charting a way to 100% renewable energy for Germany by 2050: https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/de/veroeffentlichungen/studien/studie-energiesystem-deutschland-2050.html https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/de/veroeffentlichungen/studien... This is a study from 2024, showing 4 different scenarios to reach 100% renewable energy by 2045 (!): https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/de/veroeffentlichungen/studien/wege-zu-einem-klimaneutralen-energiesystem.html https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/de/veroeffentlichungen/studien... There are dozens of similar studies from academics and think tanks across the political spectrum. Everyone who actually does more than "napkin math" and doesn't have a vested interest in fossil fuels making money comes to the same conclusion: 100% renewable energy is inherently possible for a country like Germany, especially embedded into a European grid. Is it expensive? Yes. More expensive than using increasingly expensive fossil fuels (the infrastructure for which also has to be renewed periodically) and the consequences of climate change? No, if you believe any serious study on the subject.

cyberax 2y ago

> That's correct but also irrelevant, as we always had the generation capacity to produce the shortfall ourselves. Just barely. Germany is now dependent on France and Denmark during Dunkelflaute. It doesn't have enough generating capacity to cover for itself. The last year it happened in November: https://energy-charts.info/charts/power/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&year=2024&interval=month&source=sw&month=11 https://energy-charts.info/charts/power/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&... and Germany got bailed out by its neighbors: https://energy-charts.info/charts/power/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&year=2024&interval=month&source=cbpf_saldo&month=11&stacking=stacked_absolute https://energy-charts.info/charts/power/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&... Germany probably could have managed the last year's Dunkelflaute with the existing coal generation, barely, but it _needs_ those natgas power plants because there's NOTHING renewable that can replace coal. > It was for exactly one hour. And yes, that might still be a problem, if you are on a spot-market rate. But it's also only one of 8440 hours. It was not for just one hour... And even outside of these spikes, the energy is just getting crazy: https://energy-charts.info/charts/price_spot_market/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&year=2024&interval=month&month=12 https://energy-charts.info/charts/price_spot_market/chart.ht... or https://energy-charts.info/charts/price_spot_market/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&year=2025&interval=month&month=01 https://energy-charts.info/charts/price_spot_market/chart.ht... . Compare it to 2019 to be amazed. > Again: We haven't even reached the point of renewable overproduction (which is the least one would need for any storage solution to even be an option!). My prediction for Germany: 1. It will phase out coal and replace it 1-for-1 with natgas. 2. The emission decreases will happen almost exclusively due to coal->natgas transition. My napkin math tells me that it can't go a lot lower than 230g. 3. Germany will not be able to perform the EV or heatpump transition. It'll be quietly sabotaged by the government, because there's no way to provide enough generation.

tfourb 2y ago
>3. Germany will not be able to perform the EV or heatpump transition. It'll be quietly sabotaged by the government, because there's no way to provide enough generation. Here are a couple of studies from 2012 and 2013, charting a way to 100% renewable energy for Germany by 2050: https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/de/veroeffentlichungen/studien/studie-energiesystem-deutschland-2050.html https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/de/veroeffentlichungen/studien... This is a study from 2024, showing 4 different scenarios to reach 100% renewable energy by 2045 (!): https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/de/veroeffentlichungen/studien/wege-zu-einem-klimaneutralen-energiesystem.html https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/de/veroeffentlichungen/studien... There are dozens of similar studies from academics and think tanks across the political spectrum. Everyone who actually does more than "napkin math" and doesn't have a vested interest in fossil fuels making money comes to the same conclusion: 100% renewable energy is inherently possible for a country like Germany, especially embedded into a European grid. Is it expensive? Yes. More expensive than using increasingly expensive fossil fuels (the infrastructure for which also has to be renewed periodically) and the consequences of climate change? No, if you believe any serious study on the subject.