3 ms·
For small probabilities it works :) 1-(1-p1)(1-p2) = p1+p2-p1p2 and a similar formula holds for more terms. so neglecting terms of order p^2 gives the form in
by tempfile 2y ago
For small probabilities it works :)
1-(1-p1)(1-p2) = p1+p2-p1p2
and a similar formula holds for more terms. so neglecting terms of order p^2 gives the form in the article
- sebastiennight 2y agoFor probabilities (much) smaller than 10%, sure. But adding 10%, 20%, and 35%, is already a pretty bad start. The error rate becomes huge. (in the article example, the 10% estimate of chances of being on time is ~3.5 smaller than the actual 35% correct result). Being wrong by half an order of magnitude, is being quite wrong :)
- tempfile 2y agoI'm not disagreeing with you!