6 ms·

I wonder what the input/output tokens will be priced at for AGI.

stavros 2y ago
They won't. Your use cases won't be something the AI can't do itself, so why would they sell it to you instead of replace you with it? AGI means the value of a human is the same as an LLM, but the energy requirements of a human are higher than those of an LLM, so humans won't be economical any more.
- dnadler 2y ago
  Actually, I think humans require much less energy than LLMs. Even raising a human to adulthood would be cheaper from a calorie perspective than running an AGI algorithm (probably). Its the whole reason why the premise of the Matrix was ridiculous :) Some quick back of the envelope says that it would take around 35 MWh to get to 40 years old (2000 kcal per day)
  - 12345ieee 2y ago
    You need to consider all the energy spent to bring those calories to you, easily multiplying your budget by 10 or 100.
  - kadushka 2y ago
    A human runs on ~100W, even when not doing anything useful. It's entirely plausible that 100W will be enough to run a future AGI level model.
  - gcanyon 2y ago
    I read an article once that claimed an early draft/version that was cut for time or narrative complexity had the human brains being used as raw compute for the machines, with the Matrix being the idle process to keep the minds sane and functional for their ultimate purpose.
    - ben_w 2y ago
      I've read a file that claimed to be that script; it made more sense for the machines to use human brains to control fusion reactors than for humans to be directly used as batteries. (And way more sense than how the power of love was supposed to be a nearly magical power source in #4. Boo. Some of the ideas in that film were interesting, but that bit was exceptionally cliché.)
      - gcanyon 2y ago
        I'd love to read that file. Of course, we're close (really close?) to being able to just ask an LLM to give us a personalized version of the script to do away with whatever set of flaws bother us the most.
        ben_w 2y ago
        One of the ways I experiment with LLMs is to get them to write short stories. Two axies: Quality and length. They're good quality. Not award winning, but significantly better than e.g. even good Reddit fiction. But they still struggle with length, despite what the specs say about context length. You might manage the script length needed for a kid's cartoon, but not yet a film. I'll see if I can find another copy of the script; what I saw was long enough ago my computer had a PPC chip in it.
        gcanyon 2y ago
        > PPC chip Pizza box? I loved the 6100.
        ben_w 2y ago
        Beige proto-iMac. I had a 5200 as a teen and upgraded to either a 5300 or a 5400 at university for a few years — the latter broke while at university and I upgraded again to an eMac, but I think this was before then. Looks like there's many different old scripts, no idea which, if any, was what I read back in the day: https://old.reddit.com/r/matrix/comments/rb4x93/early_draft_of_the_matrix_script/ https://old.reddit.com/r/matrix/comments/rb4x93/early_draft_... I miss those days. Even software development back then was more fun with REALbasic than today with SwiftUI.
- rlt 2y ago
  OpenAI doesn’t have the pre-existing business, relationships, domain knowledge, etc to just throw AGI at every possible use case. They will sell AGI for some fraction of what an equivalent human behind a computer screen would cost. “AGI” is also an under-specified term. It will start (maybe is already there) equivalent to, say, a human in an overseas call center, but over time improve to the equivalent of a Fortune 500 CEO or Nobel prize winner. “ASI”, on the other hand, will just recreate entire businesses from scratch.
- jasfi 2y ago
  There's could be something to what you wrote. If AGI were to be achieved by a model, why would they give access to it via an API? Why not just sell what it can do? E.g. business services. That would be far more of a moat.

They won't. Your use cases won't be something the AI can't do itself, so why would they sell it to you instead of replace you with it? AGI means the value of a human is the same as an LLM, but the energy requirements of a human are higher than those of an LLM, so humans won't be economical any more.

dnadler 2y ago
Actually, I think humans require much less energy than LLMs. Even raising a human to adulthood would be cheaper from a calorie perspective than running an AGI algorithm (probably). Its the whole reason why the premise of the Matrix was ridiculous :) Some quick back of the envelope says that it would take around 35 MWh to get to 40 years old (2000 kcal per day)
- 12345ieee 2y ago
  You need to consider all the energy spent to bring those calories to you, easily multiplying your budget by 10 or 100.
- kadushka 2y ago
  A human runs on ~100W, even when not doing anything useful. It's entirely plausible that 100W will be enough to run a future AGI level model.
- gcanyon 2y ago
  I read an article once that claimed an early draft/version that was cut for time or narrative complexity had the human brains being used as raw compute for the machines, with the Matrix being the idle process to keep the minds sane and functional for their ultimate purpose.
  - ben_w 2y ago
    I've read a file that claimed to be that script; it made more sense for the machines to use human brains to control fusion reactors than for humans to be directly used as batteries. (And way more sense than how the power of love was supposed to be a nearly magical power source in #4. Boo. Some of the ideas in that film were interesting, but that bit was exceptionally cliché.)
    - gcanyon 2y ago
      I'd love to read that file. Of course, we're close (really close?) to being able to just ask an LLM to give us a personalized version of the script to do away with whatever set of flaws bother us the most.
      - ben_w 2y ago
        One of the ways I experiment with LLMs is to get them to write short stories. Two axies: Quality and length. They're good quality. Not award winning, but significantly better than e.g. even good Reddit fiction. But they still struggle with length, despite what the specs say about context length. You might manage the script length needed for a kid's cartoon, but not yet a film. I'll see if I can find another copy of the script; what I saw was long enough ago my computer had a PPC chip in it.
        gcanyon 2y ago
        > PPC chip Pizza box? I loved the 6100.
        ben_w 2y ago
        Beige proto-iMac. I had a 5200 as a teen and upgraded to either a 5300 or a 5400 at university for a few years — the latter broke while at university and I upgraded again to an eMac, but I think this was before then. Looks like there's many different old scripts, no idea which, if any, was what I read back in the day: https://old.reddit.com/r/matrix/comments/rb4x93/early_draft_of_the_matrix_script/ https://old.reddit.com/r/matrix/comments/rb4x93/early_draft_... I miss those days. Even software development back then was more fun with REALbasic than today with SwiftUI.
rlt 2y ago
OpenAI doesn’t have the pre-existing business, relationships, domain knowledge, etc to just throw AGI at every possible use case. They will sell AGI for some fraction of what an equivalent human behind a computer screen would cost. “AGI” is also an under-specified term. It will start (maybe is already there) equivalent to, say, a human in an overseas call center, but over time improve to the equivalent of a Fortune 500 CEO or Nobel prize winner. “ASI”, on the other hand, will just recreate entire businesses from scratch.
jasfi 2y ago
There's could be something to what you wrote. If AGI were to be achieved by a model, why would they give access to it via an API? Why not just sell what it can do? E.g. business services. That would be far more of a moat.