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I don't think any of this is incompatible with the argument I made in the essay. This paragraph speaks to it: The same holds for art. AI can, right now, produc
by AaronRossPowell 2y ago
I don't think any of this is incompatible with the argument I made in the essay. This paragraph speaks to it:
The same holds for art. AI can, right now, produce pretty passable mediocre art. Which is a threat to plenty of artists, writers, etc., because plenty of artists, writers, etc., produce mediocre art. I’m pretty confident existing frontier LLM models could come up with an episode of the ABC drama 9-1-1 indistinguishable from the output of that show’s writing room. But, again, “almost all cognitive tasks a human can do” aims a bit higher than 9-1-1.
So the claim I'm making isn't "AI can't generate art that satisfies many or most people." Rather it's that Roose is wrong to believe it is capable, or will become capable, of "almost all cognitive tasks a human can do," which is a different standard. That lots of people are happy to accept less than the best doesn't mean that something that is capable only of achieving that less-than-the-best level is actually capable of achieving the best. It just means that lots of people are happy to accept less than the best.
- techpineapple 2y agoMaybe this will bifurcate business strategies. Maybe "almost all human cognitive tasks" describes breadth not depth, that it can only do 20% of the things that humans as a whole are capable of, but humans as a whole spend 80% of their time on the easiest 20%, and that you can re-engineer your business without it. We kinda see that with outsourcing and other strategies that have downsides in terms of maybe longevity of employees that can lead to brain drain. But really, I'd much rather be wrong :-) So, thanks for your submission!