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Regardless of what you think of Elon Musk, the simple fact is that Tesla no longer has the market to themselves. Even in the US where they've enjoyed a home adv

Regardless of what you think of Elon Musk, the simple fact is that Tesla no longer has the market to themselves. Even in the US where they've enjoyed a home advantage (and import tariffs) that's becoming true. It's not just the Chinese. There is a lot of competition. Korean manufacturers are very successful. In Europe, Stellantis has flooded the market with cars in price segments ranging from ~22K euros and up. And VW just announced a 20K ID.1. The cheapest Tesla in Europe is 44K or so. So, there's a rather large segment of EVs priced a lot cheaper than anything Tesla has on sale that is of course selling pretty well. And you see the same in the luxury segment where there are a lot of EVs on sale that are more expensive than what Tesla has to offer. And let's be realistic, the model S plaid is nice. But it's nothing special in terms of luxury compared to some of the more expensive models from other manufacturers. So the EV market is a lot larger than Tesla's corner of it. Which is basically the 44K - ~100K segment. And that segment is very crowded now as well. And it's no longer a given that Tesla is the best value deal at the prices they are selling. Even if you ignore the Elon Musk negative effect on the brand. Tesla could lower prices, announce cheaper models, etc. of course. But the fact is that the EV market is simply becoming the car market. In a few years, most new cars will be EVs with a sprinkle of hybrids for the range nervous and dwindling number of ICE cars where they are still allowed. So, the EV market is becoming a low margin, high volume, commodity market. There's nothing Tesla can do to change that. From 2026 and on-wards, every price segment will have EV options. Cost won't be an excuse anymore. Autonomous seems to be the wild card here. It will be a while for other manufacturers to build that themselves. Though some of the Chinese manufacturers are getting pretty good at that. This is a divisive topic of course. But it seems like a bet that could pay off if they get it to work. I have my doubts that they will have that market to themselves for very long though. Same with robotics. Or grid storage. Or electric trucks. Or solar roofs. Tesla is doing cool stuff for these things but they are hardly the only ones.

rapsey 2y ago
> So the EV market is a lot larger than Tesla's corner of it. Which is basically the 44K - ~100K segment. And that segment is very crowded now as well. Sure but Tesla competes very well in that market. Ioniq 5 for instance is in their price range, which by all accounts is an amazing car, but there are hardly any of them on the road. Whereas Model Y is literally one of the best selling cars in the world.
- jillesvangurp 2y ago
  Sure Tesla still has the scale. But not the sales. They've been postponing new factories, reducing production, etc. A few years ago they had no demand issues. Now they do. BYD has a few models that compare well with Tesla's Model 3 and Model y. They are the biggest of several Chinese manufacturers with hundreds of thousands of EVs built per year. BYD is actually on track to challenge Toyota as the largest vehicle manufacturer in the world in a few years. Not all of those cars will be electric of course. But still. The Koreans are getting there as well. Kia is looking to produce some 200K EVs this year. VW is not doing well financially, but they are producing a lot of EVs at this point and are close to catching up with Tesla even in terms of EVs produced per year (for the total VW group). The EV market is growing (~20%/y world wide), Tesla's share of it is declining. And by volume it actually stagnated last year and declined somwehat even. While others are obviously growing at its expense. The big question is if they can resume growth and what will drive that. I'd say, it's not going to get easier for them with that many competitors out there. And who knows Toyota might actually join the party at some point. Better late than never.

rapsey 2y ago

> So the EV market is a lot larger than Tesla's corner of it. Which is basically the 44K - ~100K segment. And that segment is very crowded now as well. Sure but Tesla competes very well in that market. Ioniq 5 for instance is in their price range, which by all accounts is an amazing car, but there are hardly any of them on the road. Whereas Model Y is literally one of the best selling cars in the world.

jillesvangurp 2y ago
Sure Tesla still has the scale. But not the sales. They've been postponing new factories, reducing production, etc. A few years ago they had no demand issues. Now they do. BYD has a few models that compare well with Tesla's Model 3 and Model y. They are the biggest of several Chinese manufacturers with hundreds of thousands of EVs built per year. BYD is actually on track to challenge Toyota as the largest vehicle manufacturer in the world in a few years. Not all of those cars will be electric of course. But still. The Koreans are getting there as well. Kia is looking to produce some 200K EVs this year. VW is not doing well financially, but they are producing a lot of EVs at this point and are close to catching up with Tesla even in terms of EVs produced per year (for the total VW group). The EV market is growing (~20%/y world wide), Tesla's share of it is declining. And by volume it actually stagnated last year and declined somwehat even. While others are obviously growing at its expense. The big question is if they can resume growth and what will drive that. I'd say, it's not going to get easier for them with that many competitors out there. And who knows Toyota might actually join the party at some point. Better late than never.