6 ms·

If you do business in the US as ASML does then it's a good idea to comply with sanctions. Otherwise they'll sanction you too. Would be interesting to see how t

If you do business in the US as ASML does then it's a good idea to comply with sanctions. Otherwise they'll sanction you too. Would be interesting to see how that would work out for ASML specifically since US obviously wants their products. But I think it would be catastrophic for both sides if the US sanctioned ASML. Less catastrophic for ASML to comply. The US has successfully fined many EU companies for OFAC violations, for example. This is especially ridiculous because the EU actually required European companies NOT to comply with US sanctions on Iran. (Note that I don't think this specific restriction on selling fab equipment to comes comes from OFAC)

throwaway5752 2y ago
If you do business in the US as ASML does then it's a good idea to comply with sanctions. Otherwise they'll sanction you too. It only works until it does not, and it works less well if one does not abuse it. Maybe this administration will just make it more profitable and safer to ally with China at this rate. A number of countries will be making this decision in the next four years, and Americans very well may be disappointed.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  For what it's worth, Trump isn't unique in being sanctions happy. His drug of choice is tariffs, and those are more simply statutorily remedied by making IEEPA [1] actions subject to (a) a mandatory delay and (b) the CRA [2]. [1] https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45618 https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45618 [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressional_Review_Act https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressional_Review_Act
  - fancyfredbot 2y ago
    The Biden administration imposed the export controls which prevent ASML from shipping their EUV machines to China.
- tonyhart7 2y ago
  "safer to ally with China at this rate" until china decide to conquer you politically,economically etc, well its same with US honestly but US atleast have functional democracy
  - groby_b 2y ago
    I think you underestimate how much the US has severed bridges in the last two months.
    - tonyhart7 2y ago
      Trump literally want the war to end unlike previous administration where the objective is fight to the last ukrainian
      - rat87 2y ago
        Spoken like someone who has never talked to a Ukrainian and doesn't know anything about the conflict If Trump really wanted to end the war he'd send more weapons and support Ukraine. Instead https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-administration-halts-program-track-abducted-ukrainian-children-lawmakers-2025-03-18/ https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-administration-halts-... I also hate China's dictatorship but its hard to say we are so much better when President wants to emulate them. Trump doesn't think the US is better then China just richer. And not in a soul searching way, Trump doesn't believe in being better. He's an amoral authoritarian who's literally praise Tianamen square massacre as a strong response. So we might still be better but not for long if we dont fight back. And its not surprising if our allies dont trust us when we are backstabbing Ukraine and threatening to annex Canada.
        hakfoo 2y ago
        The problem is that there's no realistic options in Ukraine. If the only acceptable answer is 1991 borders, that's going to be an incredibly expensive proposition. The "economic isolation/sanctions will work any day now" strategy doesn't seem to be delivering, and any amount of defensive armament we could supply will be just chewed up for several years to come. Maybe if you give it another five years, Putin will finally lose interest or exhaust his resources, but in the interim tens of thousands more will die. This war is expensive for Russia too, but for them it's a matter of national face-- this was a pretty blatant response to their sphere of influence being swallowed by NATO/EU expansion. So trying to get them to fold, especially when they have the stronger military position right now, is a hard sell. I'm not sure even resumption of trade/readmission to institutions is that big of a prize to offer, considering that their brand is pretty much sunk-- who's queuing up to buy Russian goods now? We could lean into the idea this is about national face-- figure out the smallest concession Ukraine has to offer so Putin can declare a "victory" and de-escalate. But we're so adamant about 'we cannot reward the bully', or convinced that he'll keep trying for expansionism that we don't treat this option seriously. There's a lot of belief that if Putin is allowed to keep a square millimetre of Ukraine, he will treat it as a license to keep pushing the border west. I'm not sure. We've proven that territorial conquest will be expensive and time-consuming, and I'm sure this has forced them to re-price all their assumptions. He has to finish what he started in Ukraine, but there's far less shame if he simply drops a hypothetical mission in Moldova or Georgia from unformalized future plans..

throwaway5752 2y ago

If you do business in the US as ASML does then it's a good idea to comply with sanctions. Otherwise they'll sanction you too. It only works until it does not, and it works less well if one does not abuse it. Maybe this administration will just make it more profitable and safer to ally with China at this rate. A number of countries will be making this decision in the next four years, and Americans very well may be disappointed.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
For what it's worth, Trump isn't unique in being sanctions happy. His drug of choice is tariffs, and those are more simply statutorily remedied by making IEEPA [1] actions subject to (a) a mandatory delay and (b) the CRA [2]. [1] https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45618 https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45618 [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressional_Review_Act https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressional_Review_Act
- fancyfredbot 2y ago
  The Biden administration imposed the export controls which prevent ASML from shipping their EUV machines to China.
tonyhart7 2y ago
"safer to ally with China at this rate" until china decide to conquer you politically,economically etc, well its same with US honestly but US atleast have functional democracy
- groby_b 2y ago
  I think you underestimate how much the US has severed bridges in the last two months.
  - tonyhart7 2y ago
    Trump literally want the war to end unlike previous administration where the objective is fight to the last ukrainian
    - rat87 2y ago
      Spoken like someone who has never talked to a Ukrainian and doesn't know anything about the conflict If Trump really wanted to end the war he'd send more weapons and support Ukraine. Instead https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-administration-halts-program-track-abducted-ukrainian-children-lawmakers-2025-03-18/ https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-administration-halts-... I also hate China's dictatorship but its hard to say we are so much better when President wants to emulate them. Trump doesn't think the US is better then China just richer. And not in a soul searching way, Trump doesn't believe in being better. He's an amoral authoritarian who's literally praise Tianamen square massacre as a strong response. So we might still be better but not for long if we dont fight back. And its not surprising if our allies dont trust us when we are backstabbing Ukraine and threatening to annex Canada.
      - hakfoo 2y ago
        The problem is that there's no realistic options in Ukraine. If the only acceptable answer is 1991 borders, that's going to be an incredibly expensive proposition. The "economic isolation/sanctions will work any day now" strategy doesn't seem to be delivering, and any amount of defensive armament we could supply will be just chewed up for several years to come. Maybe if you give it another five years, Putin will finally lose interest or exhaust his resources, but in the interim tens of thousands more will die. This war is expensive for Russia too, but for them it's a matter of national face-- this was a pretty blatant response to their sphere of influence being swallowed by NATO/EU expansion. So trying to get them to fold, especially when they have the stronger military position right now, is a hard sell. I'm not sure even resumption of trade/readmission to institutions is that big of a prize to offer, considering that their brand is pretty much sunk-- who's queuing up to buy Russian goods now? We could lean into the idea this is about national face-- figure out the smallest concession Ukraine has to offer so Putin can declare a "victory" and de-escalate. But we're so adamant about 'we cannot reward the bully', or convinced that he'll keep trying for expansionism that we don't treat this option seriously. There's a lot of belief that if Putin is allowed to keep a square millimetre of Ukraine, he will treat it as a license to keep pushing the border west. I'm not sure. We've proven that territorial conquest will be expensive and time-consuming, and I'm sure this has forced them to re-price all their assumptions. He has to finish what he started in Ukraine, but there's far less shame if he simply drops a hypothetical mission in Moldova or Georgia from unformalized future plans..