3 ms·
There is a meta-problem: one that I don't have a solution for, but keeps coming up. We are in an era where there is simply more capital to invest than ever bef
by shadowgovt 2y ago
There is a meta-problem: one that I don't have a solution for, but keeps coming up.
We are in an era where there is simply more capital to invest than ever before. Countries that were historically "third world" have developed into their own capital sources, with more resources than ever looking for investment. The NPR show Planet Money called this "The Giant Pool of Money" in their reporting on the housing bubble, and they tracked how it acted as an accelerant to push the housing market into subprime mortgages and eventual collapse, but the underlying cause is the same: where the bubbles are the sauce, the money is the stove.
So why does the money keep creating bubbles instead of giving a sort of, if you will, "even heat?"
* There's more of it than there are safe investments with guaranteed low-yield returns
* A lot of it is sovereign wealth, so it must be invested: at a certain level, that money loses value if it just sits in a treasury (it's also the case that at a certain scale, investment becomes security; keeping all your money in a sack jeopardizes everything if the sack gets stolen, and there are analogies for this that operate at the scale of major corporations and nation states).
* When the investments are less safe, the money chases itself: a fund manager can get fired if they invest in cars when everyone else is investing in dotcoms and the cars don't grow as fast. It's safer for individual actors to stick with the crowd, so as a result, the crowd comes in and pumps huge amounts of resources into one sector until that sector fails to perform and the money evaporates.
It is a problem with no obvious solution. Hypothetically, Norway may be on the right track: they maintain a diverse portfolio with a lot of long-term bets (sustainable energy) and reinvestment bets (domestic housing and development).