4 ms·

It's not AI: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IH

by belter 2y ago

It's not AI: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXDETPSOFTDEVE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXDETPSOFTDEVE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXAUTPSOFTDEVE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXAUTPSOFTDEVE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPITOPHE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPITOPHE Companies and VC's with unrealistic valuations will spin it as such.

rbultje 2y ago
There's also section-174, which big corporations don't care about but kills smaller businesses left and right.
- jordanb 2y ago
  I hear a lot of static about this on hacker news and nowhere else. I work for a large company and we were already capitalizing the time we spent developing software. From an accounting perspective it makes sense that software development effort produces a semi-durable asset that a company can use, sell, etc. For smaller companies, the math is the same. For startups very specifically, who expect to go to the moon or go bust in 5 years, I can believe that having a lower initial burn rate (because they could represent all developer salaries as opex and deduct in the immediate calendar year) was beneficial. Also, the tax law changes actually disincentivize offshoring software development by requiring an absurdly long amortization schedule for foreign-developed software. Yet offshoring is currently as intense as it has ever been since the early 2000s. (If we expect the tax law changes to have a big effect on developer hiring, we would expect a decrease in offshoring given the disincentives).
- belter 2y ago
  Yeah 174 is crazy: https://youtu.be/1ecu0YsCGxg https://youtu.be/1ecu0YsCGxg
  - dizlexic 2y ago
    Never listen to theo.
    - belter 2y ago
      Maybe... :-) Where is he wrong?
- hhh 2y ago
  I mean, section 174 was a big deal to the large corp I'm in when it was getting started. We had to clarify R&D time separately.
kfk 2y ago
I wonder how much of this drop can be simply explained as having reached a certain industry maturity. I assume at some point most of the fundamentals are in place, so we need less people?
- AlchemistCamp 2y ago
  Programming isn't an industry, per se. It's a skill, like accounting, sales, communications or law. There are definitely many businesses for which it's a core strength, but any large company has some need for it.
- jordanb 2y ago
  Maturity is definitely an issue. If you listen to what the industry is selling these days it's pretty much just AI. Before that it was DeFi and VR. There hasn't been a new smartphone since.. the smartphone. I have more thoughts here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41495082 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41495082
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
brianwawok 2y ago
I think programmer is the last job I would replace with AI.
- fancyfredbot 2y ago
  That sounds like something a programmer would say.
  - JKCalhoun 2y ago
    That's funny, but I also don't doubt that the industry, should it pursue this path, is going to be on a hiring spree to get engineers back to fix the mess they've wrought a few years from now.
    - deletedie 2y ago
      "Pursuing this path" kicked-off 2 years ago when the tech industry collectively conducted the first round of unprecedented-in-scale (until the following year) 'right-sizing'.
    - fancyfredbot 2y ago
      It's the idea programmers should be last which is kind of arrogant/funny. First we replace judges, doctors, police, generals, state officials, politicians, etc etc, and only then the programmer, the true foundation of our society! (It shouldn't need stating that replacing any of these professionals with AI systems as they exist today is a terrible idea. Yes, even the politicians)
      - surgical_fire 2y ago
        I probably wouldn't replace any of those with a system that excels in generating plausibly sounding bullshit. LLMs are good at processing natural language. I think only a few human tasks are suitable to be fully replaced with AI. Things like translation might be a good candidate, with some proofreading.
somenameforme 2y ago
FRED enables combining (and tweaking/scaling/etc) charts pretty easily on their site. Check out the 'edit graph' button. You can use the ID's of the individual charts (like IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE) when searching for a table to add. Here are those 4 tables combined: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1EDHP https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1EDHP
- belter 2y ago
  Nice tip. Thanks.

by belter 2y ago

rbultje 2y ago

There's also section-174, which big corporations don't care about but kills smaller businesses left and right.

jordanb 2y ago
I hear a lot of static about this on hacker news and nowhere else. I work for a large company and we were already capitalizing the time we spent developing software. From an accounting perspective it makes sense that software development effort produces a semi-durable asset that a company can use, sell, etc. For smaller companies, the math is the same. For startups very specifically, who expect to go to the moon or go bust in 5 years, I can believe that having a lower initial burn rate (because they could represent all developer salaries as opex and deduct in the immediate calendar year) was beneficial. Also, the tax law changes actually disincentivize offshoring software development by requiring an absurdly long amortization schedule for foreign-developed software. Yet offshoring is currently as intense as it has ever been since the early 2000s. (If we expect the tax law changes to have a big effect on developer hiring, we would expect a decrease in offshoring given the disincentives).
belter 2y ago
Yeah 174 is crazy: https://youtu.be/1ecu0YsCGxg https://youtu.be/1ecu0YsCGxg
- dizlexic 2y ago
  Never listen to theo.
  - belter 2y ago
    Maybe... :-) Where is he wrong?
hhh 2y ago
I mean, section 174 was a big deal to the large corp I'm in when it was getting started. We had to clarify R&D time separately.

kfk 2y ago

I wonder how much of this drop can be simply explained as having reached a certain industry maturity. I assume at some point most of the fundamentals are in place, so we need less people?

AlchemistCamp 2y ago
Programming isn't an industry, per se. It's a skill, like accounting, sales, communications or law. There are definitely many businesses for which it's a core strength, but any large company has some need for it.
jordanb 2y ago
Maturity is definitely an issue. If you listen to what the industry is selling these days it's pretty much just AI. Before that it was DeFi and VR. There hasn't been a new smartphone since.. the smartphone. I have more thoughts here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41495082 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41495082
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]

brianwawok 2y ago

I think programmer is the last job I would replace with AI.

fancyfredbot 2y ago
That sounds like something a programmer would say.
- JKCalhoun 2y ago
  That's funny, but I also don't doubt that the industry, should it pursue this path, is going to be on a hiring spree to get engineers back to fix the mess they've wrought a few years from now.
  - deletedie 2y ago
    "Pursuing this path" kicked-off 2 years ago when the tech industry collectively conducted the first round of unprecedented-in-scale (until the following year) 'right-sizing'.
  - fancyfredbot 2y ago
    It's the idea programmers should be last which is kind of arrogant/funny. First we replace judges, doctors, police, generals, state officials, politicians, etc etc, and only then the programmer, the true foundation of our society! (It shouldn't need stating that replacing any of these professionals with AI systems as they exist today is a terrible idea. Yes, even the politicians)
    - surgical_fire 2y ago
      I probably wouldn't replace any of those with a system that excels in generating plausibly sounding bullshit. LLMs are good at processing natural language. I think only a few human tasks are suitable to be fully replaced with AI. Things like translation might be a good candidate, with some proofreading.

somenameforme 2y ago

FRED enables combining (and tweaking/scaling/etc) charts pretty easily on their site. Check out the 'edit graph' button. You can use the ID's of the individual charts (like IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE) when searching for a table to add. Here are those 4 tables combined: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1EDHP https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1EDHP

belter 2y ago
Nice tip. Thanks.