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AI becoming useful doesn’t mean that it will become immensely profitable: the lesson of DeepSeek was that nobody has a moat.
by acdha 2y ago
AI becoming useful doesn’t mean that it will become immensely profitable: the lesson of DeepSeek was that nobody has a moat.
- aurareturn 2y agoThere is clearly a moat. The moat is in data, training algorithms, compute capacity, and UX. The LLM labs can't all keep up. Most of them will fail. Some of them will merge. In the end, there will be a few dominant players.
- acdha 2y ago> The moat is in data, training algorithms, compute capacity, and UX. That’s a very shallow moat, then. I mentioned DeepSeek because everyone insisted the American giants had huge leads over the rest of the world until the day they got a big reminder that three of the things you mentioned are commodities and UX isn’t a moat.
- aurareturn 2y agoThere used to be a ton of chip manufacturers. Now there's only one dominant player left: TSMC. Eventually, the winner outpaces everyone and the cost to compete is so astronomically high, only 1-2 will be left. Not everyone can give away their models for free forever - especially when the cost to train a new model is exponentially more expensive.