5 ms·

I don't think this is strictly true. Rather it seems that the problem is that we, at some point, invariably assume the truth of something that is false, which t

I don't think this is strictly true. Rather it seems that the problem is that we, at some point, invariably assume the truth of something that is false, which then makes it really difficult to move beyond that because we're working off false premises, and relatively few people are going out of there way to go back in time and challenge/rework every single assumption, especially when those assumptions are supported by decades (if not centuries) of 'progress.' An obvious example of this is the assumption of the geocentric universe. That rapidly leads to ever more mind-boggling complex phenomena like multitudes of epicycles, planets suddenly turning around mid-orbit, and much more. It turns out the actual physics are far more simple, but you have to get passed that flawed assumption. In more modern times relativity was similar. Once it became clear that the luminiferous aether was wrong, and that the universe was really friggin weird, all sorts of new doors opened for easy access. The rapid decline in progress in modern times would seem most likely to suggest that something we are taking as a fundamental assumption is probably wrong, rather than that the next door is just unimaginably difficult to open. This is probably even more true given the vast numbers of open questions for which we have defacto answers, but yet they seem to defy every single test of their correctness. --- All that said, I don't disagree that technology may be on an s curve, but simply because I think the constraints on 'things' will be far greater than the constraints on knowledge. The most sophisticated naval vessel of modern times would look impressive but otherwise familiar to a seaman of hundreds or perhaps even thousands of years ago. Even things like the engines wouldn't be particularly hard to explain because they would have known full well that a boiling pot of water can push off its top, which is basically 90% of the way to understanding how an engine works.

zmgsabst 2y ago
> The rapid decline in progress in modern times would seem most likely to suggest that something we are taking as a fundamental assumption is probably wrong, rather than that the next door is just unimaginably difficult to open. We actually know we have: Bell’s inequality tells us that the universe is non-local or non-real. We originally preferred to retain locality (ie, Copenhagen interpretation) but were later forced to accept non-locality. But now we have a pedagogy and machinery built on this (incorrect) assumption — which people don’t personally benefit from re-writing. Science appears trapped in something all too familiar to SDEs: A technical design choice turned out to be wrong, but a re-write is too costly and risky for your career, so everyone just piles on more tech debt — or modern epicycles. And perhaps that’s not a bad thing, in and of itself. Eg, geons were initially discarded because the math doesn’t work out — but with the huge asterisk that they might still be topologically stabilized. But the math there is hard and so it makes sense to continue piling onto the current model until enough advances in modeling (eg, 4D anyons) allow for exploring that idea again. Similar to putting off moving tech stacks until someone else demonstrates it solves their problems. But at least topological geons would explain one question: why does space look like geometry but particles look like algebra? Because topological surgery looks like both! - - - - > clear that the luminiferous aether was wrong Another interpretation is that the aether exists, but we’re also made of aether stuff — so we squish when we move, rather than rigidly moving through it (as per the theory tested by Michelson-Morley). That squishing cancels out the expected measurement in MM. LIGO (a scaled MM experiment) then works because waves in the aether squish and stretch us in a detectable way. Modern theories are effectively this: everything is fields, which we believe to be low-energy parts of some unified field.
simpaticoder 2y ago
It's true that Ptolemaic cosmology stuck thinkers in a rut for a very long time; but what got us out of that rut was observation (and simplification). Copernicus saw that heliocentrism led to a simpler model that fit observation better (ironically he wanted to recover Ptolemy's perfectly circular orbits!). In turn, Kepler's perfectionism led him to ditch the circular orbit idea to yield the first accurate description of orbits as ellipses. Yes, transgression against long-held belief was necessary to move forward, but in every case the transgression explained observation. Transgression itself is undesirable. In fact, transgression unmotivated by observation is what powers the dark soul of the "crank", who is at best a time-waster and at worst a spreader of mental illness. Even Einstein did not produce (e.g. special relativity) out of whole cloth. He provided a consistent conceptualization of Lorentz contraction, itself the result of observing descrepencies in the motion of Jupiter's moons. The same could be said of the photoelectric effect, the ultraviolet catastrophe, and QM. All this to say that your statement "The rapid decline in progress in modern times would seem most likely to suggest that something we are taking as a fundamental assumption is probably wrong" is unsupported. Nothing could be more popular than questioning fundamental assumptions in science today! It could very well be that, as Sean Carroll puts it, we really know how everything larger than the diameter of a nuetron works! Moreover, we know that even if we find strangeness at tiny scales, our current theories WILL remain valid approximations, just like Newtonian mechanics are valid approximations of special and general relativity. The path to progress will not happen because a rogue genius finds something everyone missed and boldly questions assumptions long-held. Scientific revolution first requires an observation inconsistent with known models, but even the LHC hasn't given us even one of those. There is reason to think that GR, QM, and the standard model are all there is...until we do some experiments near a black hole!
- somenameforme 2y ago
  Heliocentrism from its earliest formulation was pretty bad for many reasons, including as you mentioned the desire to maintain circular orbits, as well as uniform velocities, epicycles, and more. You could easily pick a million holes in heliocentrism to 'disprove' it. And the geocentric view, as convoluted as it was, was observably accurate and predictive with 'holes' being plugged by simply having the entire dysfunctional model absorb them - e.g. by simply assuming retrograde motion as a natural phenomena, and otherwise - just add more epicycles. Heliocentrism was most fundamentally driven by somebody, with extremely poor interpersonal skills (which is much more the reason he was left living his final days in house imprisonment, rather than his theory itself), moving forward on his own somewhat obsessive bias. Similarly, with relativity. I have no idea what you mean by a 'consistent conceptualization' of Lorentz contraction, but length contraction was a completely ad hoc explanation for the Michelson Morley experiment. It's correctness was/is more incidental than anything else. Einstein did not cite Lorentz (or anybody for that matter), and I do not think that was unfair or egotistical of him. -- I'm also unsure of what you're referencing with Sean Carroll, but I'd offer a quote from Michelson of the Michelson-Morley experiment saying essentially the same, "The more important fundamental laws and facts of physical science have all been discovered, and these are now so firmly established that the possibility of their ever being supplanted in consequence of new discoveries is exceedingly remote.... Our future discoveries must be looked for in the sixth place of decimals." So convinced was Michelson that the 'failure' of his experiment was just a measurement issue that he made that comment in 1894, near to a decade after his experiment and shortly before physics and our understanding of the universe was about to revolutionary explode thanks to a low ranking patent inspector.

zmgsabst 2y ago

> The rapid decline in progress in modern times would seem most likely to suggest that something we are taking as a fundamental assumption is probably wrong, rather than that the next door is just unimaginably difficult to open. We actually know we have: Bell’s inequality tells us that the universe is non-local or non-real. We originally preferred to retain locality (ie, Copenhagen interpretation) but were later forced to accept non-locality. But now we have a pedagogy and machinery built on this (incorrect) assumption — which people don’t personally benefit from re-writing. Science appears trapped in something all too familiar to SDEs: A technical design choice turned out to be wrong, but a re-write is too costly and risky for your career, so everyone just piles on more tech debt — or modern epicycles. And perhaps that’s not a bad thing, in and of itself. Eg, geons were initially discarded because the math doesn’t work out — but with the huge asterisk that they might still be topologically stabilized. But the math there is hard and so it makes sense to continue piling onto the current model until enough advances in modeling (eg, 4D anyons) allow for exploring that idea again. Similar to putting off moving tech stacks until someone else demonstrates it solves their problems. But at least topological geons would explain one question: why does space look like geometry but particles look like algebra? Because topological surgery looks like both! - - - - > clear that the luminiferous aether was wrong Another interpretation is that the aether exists, but we’re also made of aether stuff — so we squish when we move, rather than rigidly moving through it (as per the theory tested by Michelson-Morley). That squishing cancels out the expected measurement in MM. LIGO (a scaled MM experiment) then works because waves in the aether squish and stretch us in a detectable way. Modern theories are effectively this: everything is fields, which we believe to be low-energy parts of some unified field.

simpaticoder 2y ago

It's true that Ptolemaic cosmology stuck thinkers in a rut for a very long time; but what got us out of that rut was observation (and simplification). Copernicus saw that heliocentrism led to a simpler model that fit observation better (ironically he wanted to recover Ptolemy's perfectly circular orbits!). In turn, Kepler's perfectionism led him to ditch the circular orbit idea to yield the first accurate description of orbits as ellipses. Yes, transgression against long-held belief was necessary to move forward, but in every case the transgression explained observation. Transgression itself is undesirable. In fact, transgression unmotivated by observation is what powers the dark soul of the "crank", who is at best a time-waster and at worst a spreader of mental illness. Even Einstein did not produce (e.g. special relativity) out of whole cloth. He provided a consistent conceptualization of Lorentz contraction, itself the result of observing descrepencies in the motion of Jupiter's moons. The same could be said of the photoelectric effect, the ultraviolet catastrophe, and QM. All this to say that your statement "The rapid decline in progress in modern times would seem most likely to suggest that something we are taking as a fundamental assumption is probably wrong" is unsupported. Nothing could be more popular than questioning fundamental assumptions in science today! It could very well be that, as Sean Carroll puts it, we really know how everything larger than the diameter of a nuetron works! Moreover, we know that even if we find strangeness at tiny scales, our current theories WILL remain valid approximations, just like Newtonian mechanics are valid approximations of special and general relativity. The path to progress will not happen because a rogue genius finds something everyone missed and boldly questions assumptions long-held. Scientific revolution first requires an observation inconsistent with known models, but even the LHC hasn't given us even one of those. There is reason to think that GR, QM, and the standard model are all there is...until we do some experiments near a black hole!

somenameforme 2y ago
Heliocentrism from its earliest formulation was pretty bad for many reasons, including as you mentioned the desire to maintain circular orbits, as well as uniform velocities, epicycles, and more. You could easily pick a million holes in heliocentrism to 'disprove' it. And the geocentric view, as convoluted as it was, was observably accurate and predictive with 'holes' being plugged by simply having the entire dysfunctional model absorb them - e.g. by simply assuming retrograde motion as a natural phenomena, and otherwise - just add more epicycles. Heliocentrism was most fundamentally driven by somebody, with extremely poor interpersonal skills (which is much more the reason he was left living his final days in house imprisonment, rather than his theory itself), moving forward on his own somewhat obsessive bias. Similarly, with relativity. I have no idea what you mean by a 'consistent conceptualization' of Lorentz contraction, but length contraction was a completely ad hoc explanation for the Michelson Morley experiment. It's correctness was/is more incidental than anything else. Einstein did not cite Lorentz (or anybody for that matter), and I do not think that was unfair or egotistical of him. -- I'm also unsure of what you're referencing with Sean Carroll, but I'd offer a quote from Michelson of the Michelson-Morley experiment saying essentially the same, "The more important fundamental laws and facts of physical science have all been discovered, and these are now so firmly established that the possibility of their ever being supplanted in consequence of new discoveries is exceedingly remote.... Our future discoveries must be looked for in the sixth place of decimals." So convinced was Michelson that the 'failure' of his experiment was just a measurement issue that he made that comment in 1894, near to a decade after his experiment and shortly before physics and our understanding of the universe was about to revolutionary explode thanks to a low ranking patent inspector.