6 ms·

It really isn't smart to do this kind of thing. Once an organization actually attacks you, it's very easy to decide that any legitimacy they view themselves as

It really isn't smart to do this kind of thing. Once an organization actually attacks you, it's very easy to decide that any legitimacy they view themselves as having is irrelevant and to come back next Monday with mortars and machine guns.

captainkrtek 2y ago
Reminds me of the escalation seen in the Ukrainian Maidan, went from some heavy handed policing to non-lethal rounds (eg: teargas / beanbags) to BBs to snipers and live firing on crowds.
- impossiblefork 2y ago
  Yes, although that was exceptionally irrational, to the point where I don't really feel I understand the events.
  - tpm 2y ago
    It would be rational if you would think killing a few (or a lot of) protesters will intimidate the rest of the country into submission. It didn't, but it could have.
    - impossiblefork 2y ago
      But nobody thinks that way. If they can kill your friends, they can round you up afterwards and kill you. Once it gets to that point, there's no reason not to immediately organize a military response.
      - giraffe_lady 2y ago
        Hold on to that thought we're going to need it this summer.
        impossiblefork 2y ago
        Ah, I'm Swedish, so I can't really help you.
      - nkmnz 2y ago
        Almost every single authoritarian thinks that way. That’s how they stay in power. Please google Volksaufstand (1953), Hungarian Uprising (1956), Prague Spring (1968), Tiananmen (1989), Vilnius Massacre (1991)…
      - PaulDavisThe1st 2y ago
        >But nobody thinks that way. And yet history shows many (dozens?) of instance where that's exactly what most people thought.
      - pjc50 2y ago
        Military responses are very hard to organize if you're not already the military. Having a bunch of demonstrators killed is usually the final step in consolidation of power. Especially if the rest of the public isn't 100% behind the demonstrators.
    - hayst4ck 2y ago
      Timothy Snyder put his history of Ukraine class on YouTube. The lesson on the Maidan was done by a guest speaker. The presentation is mostly dry and the person isn't the best speaker, but the content was quality and very worth watching, especially if you have any beliefs in "color revolutions" or American imperialism: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gg_CLI3xY58&list=PLh9mgdi4rNewfxO7LhBoz_1Mx1MaO6sw_&index=20 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gg_CLI3xY58&list=PLh9mgdi4rN... It was now a revolt against произвол, an idea of arbitrariness tinged with tyranny, helplessness in the face of power, the feeling that the powers that be can do whatever they want to you, and you are helpless, that you are being treated as a plaything, as a thing and not as a human being, as an object and not as a subject, and the Maidan became a revolt against произвол, it became an insistence on being treated as a person and not as a thing, as a subject not as an object, and they began to call themselves on the Maidan the revolution of dignity. It seems that Yanukovych (Ukraine's corrupt Russian puppet leader) was counted on the fact that if you shock people this way (brutally beating up protestors), not enough to kill people, but enough to terrify them, the parents will freak out and they will pull their kids off the streets... (after many people's children were beaten) Suddenly you have parents joining their children on the streets, and that is the moment that creates the revolution...
      - h2zizzle 2y ago
        >it became an insistence on being treated as a person and not as a thing, as a subject not as an object At the risk of inflammation: sounds like Black Lives Matter.
        h2zizzle 2y ago
        Wishing the person who downvoted this an ironic encounter with their ignorance.
  - timeon 2y ago
    Unfortunately, it worked in Belarus.
    - martin-t 2y ago
      I knew those protests were going to fail as soon as I heard on the news that police were throwing down their weapons and joining the protesters. The way to defeat a dictator is not by painting yourself as a defenseless victim. (That is only useful as the first step to gain support.) The way is to show him you have a greater potential for violence than him and if he doesn't flee, he will be punished (usually killed, sometimes tortured first). They had huge numbers and if at least some police were on their side they were on the right track to escalating the threat of violence. At some point the dictator would have either broken or the violence would have materialized. But that requires the good people to keep their weapons and use them.
  - captainkrtek 2y ago
    “Winter on Fire” on Netflix is a pretty thorough documentary of events day-by-day, though many scenes are difficult to watch.
crooked-v 2y ago
Estimates are that something like 300,000+ people were out actively protesting just in Belgrade... in a country of 6.6 million people.
- impossiblefork 2y ago
  Yes, but polarization is a possibility. You can't know you're the majority, so until violence is used against you, you don't necessarily have a reason to turn the thing into a civil war.
  - Tadpole9181 2y ago
    Something like 1.6 million people across Serbia were protesting across the country, last I heard. They're the majority.
    - impossiblefork 2y ago
      That seems reasonable, but my comment was intended as a continuation of my general 'if an organization attacks you...'.
  - cantrecallmypwd 2y ago
    You're using whataboutism to conflate the Serbian government with an imaginary counter faction. Civil war requires 2+ factions that cannot or will not express their grievances through political means. This simply isn't the case.
    - impossiblefork 2y ago
      No, I'm actually not really talking about Serbia at all, but about the general situation, i.e. about violence and how one should react to it. Basically, I'm saying that if one is attacked, the one can do as one likes, but if one is not attacked, then one can leave things to democracy; and it is difficult to know whether ones position, in the absence of an election, has popular support.
tbrownaw 2y ago
> any legitimacy they view themselves as having I'm pretty sure that's not actually how power or legitimacy work anyway.
- impossiblefork 2y ago
  Once they're shooting at you, or going after you in some other way, that legitimacy etc. is irrelevant, simply because they're going after you. The solution is then always an organized military response. This applies whether it's your government or somebody else's.
  - defrost 2y ago
    > The solution is then always an organized military response. In actual history, not always, and not that often. Case in point, for example, the Peterloo Massacre: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peterloo_Massacre https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peterloo_Massacre took place at St Peter's Field, Manchester, Lancashire, England, on Monday 16 August 1819. Eighteen people died and 400–700 were injured when cavalry charged into a crowd of around 60,000 people who had gathered to demand the reform of parliamentary representation. the response to that, from the general public, was general outrage, mocking of government, but no "organized military response". The immediate effect of Peterloo was a crackdown on reform. The government instructed the police and courts to go after the journalists, presses and publication of the Manchester Observer. For a few months following Peterloo it seemed to the authorities that the country was heading towards an armed rebellion. Encouraging them in that belief were two abortive uprisings, [..], and the discovery and foiling of [..] conspiracy to blow up the cabinet that winter. By the end of the year, the government had introduced legislation, later known as the Six Acts, to suppress radical meetings and publications, and by the end of 1820 every significant working-class radical reformer was in jail; civil liberties had declined to an even lower level than they were before Peterloo. The urge for reform increased, resolve stiffened, and eventually (after some time) change came about. Events such as [ ..these.. ] all serve to indicate the breadth, diversity and widespread geographical scale of the demand for economic and political reform at the time. Peterloo had no effect on the speed of reform, but in due course all but one of the reformers' demands, annual parliaments, were met. Following the Great Reform Act 1832 [ ... ]
vpribish 2y ago
you are stating this with confidence but it doesn't sound at all convincing - where are you getting this from? aggressive crowd control measures have been used very often and they almost never result in an armed rebellion. that's just nonsense. There are many MANY levels of escalation left for both sides - as well as the real expectation of behind the scenes diplomacy and within-the-system politics. like really, are you just fantasizing about a balkan civil war because it's exciting? or are you trying to get more people to think that civil disagreement may as well be considered warfare? just what are you on about, mate?
pjc50 2y ago
> come back next Monday with mortars and machine guns Where the heck are they going to get those in Serbia? Weren't they rounded up after the war, especially mortars? Also that sort of thing tends not to last very long against the regular army, who have a much larger supply of materiel and are better trained. It only really works if the army flips politically against the regime (think Ceaucescu, or less violently the Carnation Revolution).
- cue_the_strings 2y ago
  There's a huge amount of weapons hidden away in attics, even after several campaigns to get rid of illegal weapons, no questions asked. There's also a huge amount of it in the region (Montenegro, Bosnia). I used to live first in Serbia, then Montenegro. I've personally been to weddings in both Serbia and Montenegro, in the early-mid 2000s, where they fired full auto weapons with live rounds into the air. AK variants and such. I remember us kids collecting shell casings and stripper clips. I'd say that it's mostly handguns and hand grenades, some AK and SKS variants, obsolete 40s-50s SMGs given out to territorial defense decades ago, some bolt action rifles and some Zoljas (anti tank rocket) and AP mines from the war. I remember a guy in Podgorica, Montenegro (local football hooligan and drug dealer) firing a Zolja at a department store at night. He had obtained it for 200 euros in Belgrade, Serbia and "had to try it out". [1] I also remember them catching a 15 year old with an AK in 2017 in Podgorica, Montenegro. [2] I loved frequenting the local flea market and you could regularly see stuff like helmets for sale, also some magazines (I remember seeing one for an MP40 or similar SMG). I also witnessed a transaction, a guy buying a small pistol from another guy at the flea market. The gun quickly changed hands and dissapeared in his jacket, but I saw it beyond doubt. Anything else I could write would just bring into question my credibility, so I'll keep these stories for us who lived through it. It recently happened to me that I started quesioning my childhood memories (age 8 or so), like "did that really happen or did I imagine it", so I asked people I remembered were there with me, and yep it sure as hell did. I even forgot some details and people involved. But I'd have a hard time beleiving it if I heard it. Also bear in mind that a lot of the people who have these weapons actually support the government and loved Vučić's old party from the 90s. For example, one of the people firing an AK at his son's wedding was a policeman, and his grandson is now a policeman and Vučić sympathiser in Belgrade. [1] https://www.b92.net/o/info/vesti/index?nav_id=211841 https://www.b92.net/o/info/vesti/index?nav_id=211841 [2] https://volimpodgoricu.me/novosti/podgorica-uhapsen-petnaestogodisnjak-sa-automatskom-puskom https://volimpodgoricu.me/novosti/podgorica-uhapsen-petnaest...
nickfromseattle 2y ago
Serbia has the 5th highest amount of civilian guns per capita. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimated_number_of_civilian_guns_per_capita_by_country https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimated_number_of_civilian_g...

captainkrtek 2y ago

Reminds me of the escalation seen in the Ukrainian Maidan, went from some heavy handed policing to non-lethal rounds (eg: teargas / beanbags) to BBs to snipers and live firing on crowds.

impossiblefork 2y ago
Yes, although that was exceptionally irrational, to the point where I don't really feel I understand the events.
- tpm 2y ago
  It would be rational if you would think killing a few (or a lot of) protesters will intimidate the rest of the country into submission. It didn't, but it could have.
  - impossiblefork 2y ago
    But nobody thinks that way. If they can kill your friends, they can round you up afterwards and kill you. Once it gets to that point, there's no reason not to immediately organize a military response.
    - giraffe_lady 2y ago
      Hold on to that thought we're going to need it this summer.
      - impossiblefork 2y ago
        Ah, I'm Swedish, so I can't really help you.
    - nkmnz 2y ago
      Almost every single authoritarian thinks that way. That’s how they stay in power. Please google Volksaufstand (1953), Hungarian Uprising (1956), Prague Spring (1968), Tiananmen (1989), Vilnius Massacre (1991)…
    - PaulDavisThe1st 2y ago
      >But nobody thinks that way. And yet history shows many (dozens?) of instance where that's exactly what most people thought.
    - pjc50 2y ago
      Military responses are very hard to organize if you're not already the military. Having a bunch of demonstrators killed is usually the final step in consolidation of power. Especially if the rest of the public isn't 100% behind the demonstrators.
  - hayst4ck 2y ago
    Timothy Snyder put his history of Ukraine class on YouTube. The lesson on the Maidan was done by a guest speaker. The presentation is mostly dry and the person isn't the best speaker, but the content was quality and very worth watching, especially if you have any beliefs in "color revolutions" or American imperialism: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gg_CLI3xY58&list=PLh9mgdi4rNewfxO7LhBoz_1Mx1MaO6sw_&index=20 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gg_CLI3xY58&list=PLh9mgdi4rN... It was now a revolt against произвол, an idea of arbitrariness tinged with tyranny, helplessness in the face of power, the feeling that the powers that be can do whatever they want to you, and you are helpless, that you are being treated as a plaything, as a thing and not as a human being, as an object and not as a subject, and the Maidan became a revolt against произвол, it became an insistence on being treated as a person and not as a thing, as a subject not as an object, and they began to call themselves on the Maidan the revolution of dignity. It seems that Yanukovych (Ukraine's corrupt Russian puppet leader) was counted on the fact that if you shock people this way (brutally beating up protestors), not enough to kill people, but enough to terrify them, the parents will freak out and they will pull their kids off the streets... (after many people's children were beaten) Suddenly you have parents joining their children on the streets, and that is the moment that creates the revolution...
    - h2zizzle 2y ago
      >it became an insistence on being treated as a person and not as a thing, as a subject not as an object At the risk of inflammation: sounds like Black Lives Matter.
      - h2zizzle 2y ago
        Wishing the person who downvoted this an ironic encounter with their ignorance.
- timeon 2y ago
  Unfortunately, it worked in Belarus.
  - martin-t 2y ago
    I knew those protests were going to fail as soon as I heard on the news that police were throwing down their weapons and joining the protesters. The way to defeat a dictator is not by painting yourself as a defenseless victim. (That is only useful as the first step to gain support.) The way is to show him you have a greater potential for violence than him and if he doesn't flee, he will be punished (usually killed, sometimes tortured first). They had huge numbers and if at least some police were on their side they were on the right track to escalating the threat of violence. At some point the dictator would have either broken or the violence would have materialized. But that requires the good people to keep their weapons and use them.
- captainkrtek 2y ago
  “Winter on Fire” on Netflix is a pretty thorough documentary of events day-by-day, though many scenes are difficult to watch.

crooked-v 2y ago

Estimates are that something like 300,000+ people were out actively protesting just in Belgrade... in a country of 6.6 million people.

impossiblefork 2y ago
Yes, but polarization is a possibility. You can't know you're the majority, so until violence is used against you, you don't necessarily have a reason to turn the thing into a civil war.
- Tadpole9181 2y ago
  Something like 1.6 million people across Serbia were protesting across the country, last I heard. They're the majority.
  - impossiblefork 2y ago
    That seems reasonable, but my comment was intended as a continuation of my general 'if an organization attacks you...'.
- cantrecallmypwd 2y ago
  You're using whataboutism to conflate the Serbian government with an imaginary counter faction. Civil war requires 2+ factions that cannot or will not express their grievances through political means. This simply isn't the case.
  - impossiblefork 2y ago
    No, I'm actually not really talking about Serbia at all, but about the general situation, i.e. about violence and how one should react to it. Basically, I'm saying that if one is attacked, the one can do as one likes, but if one is not attacked, then one can leave things to democracy; and it is difficult to know whether ones position, in the absence of an election, has popular support.

tbrownaw 2y ago

> any legitimacy they view themselves as having I'm pretty sure that's not actually how power or legitimacy work anyway.

impossiblefork 2y ago
Once they're shooting at you, or going after you in some other way, that legitimacy etc. is irrelevant, simply because they're going after you. The solution is then always an organized military response. This applies whether it's your government or somebody else's.
- defrost 2y ago
  > The solution is then always an organized military response. In actual history, not always, and not that often. Case in point, for example, the Peterloo Massacre: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peterloo_Massacre https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peterloo_Massacre took place at St Peter's Field, Manchester, Lancashire, England, on Monday 16 August 1819. Eighteen people died and 400–700 were injured when cavalry charged into a crowd of around 60,000 people who had gathered to demand the reform of parliamentary representation. the response to that, from the general public, was general outrage, mocking of government, but no "organized military response". The immediate effect of Peterloo was a crackdown on reform. The government instructed the police and courts to go after the journalists, presses and publication of the Manchester Observer. For a few months following Peterloo it seemed to the authorities that the country was heading towards an armed rebellion. Encouraging them in that belief were two abortive uprisings, [..], and the discovery and foiling of [..] conspiracy to blow up the cabinet that winter. By the end of the year, the government had introduced legislation, later known as the Six Acts, to suppress radical meetings and publications, and by the end of 1820 every significant working-class radical reformer was in jail; civil liberties had declined to an even lower level than they were before Peterloo. The urge for reform increased, resolve stiffened, and eventually (after some time) change came about. Events such as [ ..these.. ] all serve to indicate the breadth, diversity and widespread geographical scale of the demand for economic and political reform at the time. Peterloo had no effect on the speed of reform, but in due course all but one of the reformers' demands, annual parliaments, were met. Following the Great Reform Act 1832 [ ... ]

vpribish 2y ago

you are stating this with confidence but it doesn't sound at all convincing - where are you getting this from? aggressive crowd control measures have been used very often and they almost never result in an armed rebellion. that's just nonsense. There are many MANY levels of escalation left for both sides - as well as the real expectation of behind the scenes diplomacy and within-the-system politics. like really, are you just fantasizing about a balkan civil war because it's exciting? or are you trying to get more people to think that civil disagreement may as well be considered warfare? just what are you on about, mate?

pjc50 2y ago

> come back next Monday with mortars and machine guns Where the heck are they going to get those in Serbia? Weren't they rounded up after the war, especially mortars? Also that sort of thing tends not to last very long against the regular army, who have a much larger supply of materiel and are better trained. It only really works if the army flips politically against the regime (think Ceaucescu, or less violently the Carnation Revolution).

cue_the_strings 2y ago
There's a huge amount of weapons hidden away in attics, even after several campaigns to get rid of illegal weapons, no questions asked. There's also a huge amount of it in the region (Montenegro, Bosnia). I used to live first in Serbia, then Montenegro. I've personally been to weddings in both Serbia and Montenegro, in the early-mid 2000s, where they fired full auto weapons with live rounds into the air. AK variants and such. I remember us kids collecting shell casings and stripper clips. I'd say that it's mostly handguns and hand grenades, some AK and SKS variants, obsolete 40s-50s SMGs given out to territorial defense decades ago, some bolt action rifles and some Zoljas (anti tank rocket) and AP mines from the war. I remember a guy in Podgorica, Montenegro (local football hooligan and drug dealer) firing a Zolja at a department store at night. He had obtained it for 200 euros in Belgrade, Serbia and "had to try it out". [1] I also remember them catching a 15 year old with an AK in 2017 in Podgorica, Montenegro. [2] I loved frequenting the local flea market and you could regularly see stuff like helmets for sale, also some magazines (I remember seeing one for an MP40 or similar SMG). I also witnessed a transaction, a guy buying a small pistol from another guy at the flea market. The gun quickly changed hands and dissapeared in his jacket, but I saw it beyond doubt. Anything else I could write would just bring into question my credibility, so I'll keep these stories for us who lived through it. It recently happened to me that I started quesioning my childhood memories (age 8 or so), like "did that really happen or did I imagine it", so I asked people I remembered were there with me, and yep it sure as hell did. I even forgot some details and people involved. But I'd have a hard time beleiving it if I heard it. Also bear in mind that a lot of the people who have these weapons actually support the government and loved Vučić's old party from the 90s. For example, one of the people firing an AK at his son's wedding was a policeman, and his grandson is now a policeman and Vučić sympathiser in Belgrade. [1] https://www.b92.net/o/info/vesti/index?nav_id=211841 https://www.b92.net/o/info/vesti/index?nav_id=211841 [2] https://volimpodgoricu.me/novosti/podgorica-uhapsen-petnaestogodisnjak-sa-automatskom-puskom https://volimpodgoricu.me/novosti/podgorica-uhapsen-petnaest...

nickfromseattle 2y ago

Serbia has the 5th highest amount of civilian guns per capita. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimated_number_of_civilian_guns_per_capita_by_country https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimated_number_of_civilian_g...