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The point is that was there an overhire/pull forward during covid that we're still paying for or is this a long term trend?
by aurareturn 2y ago
The point is that was there an overhire/pull forward during covid that we're still paying for or is this a long term trend?
- TeaBrain 2y agoThat's a fair point. Do you have any thoughts on how long it'll take for a decline to qualify as long term?
- Izkata 2y ago(different person) Just eyeballing the graph, If we can attribute the entire spike to a "pulling forward" effect, then I'm guessing it might end late 2026 or so (as a gradual slope over longer period, not a hard noticeable line). Then give it a few months for stabilization / to ignore random normal fluctuations that just happen to be at that time. So without more information, early 2027 we can call it a long-term trend for certain? Extending it back to 1995 or so like the first comment suggested would give us a few more upsets in the market to see more easily if this effect actually exists in this data. That said, their source is https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE so that data probably doesn't exist.