I got 100 actuations has 1 chance in 10,000, which is unlikely, but not maybe not as unlikely as it seemed at first glance. 1 actuation has 1 chance

I got 100 actuations has 1 chance in 10,000, which is unlikely, but not maybe not as unlikely as it seemed at first glance. 1 actuation has 1 chance in 1e6 1e2 actuations has 1e2 chances in 1e6 1e2 actuations has 1 chance in 1e4