I find it's helpful to fall back on: 1. How much motive exists for the "experts" to be lying? 2. What's the punishment if they're caught? 3. What kind of con

I find it's helpful to fall back on: 1. How much motive exists for the "experts" to be lying? 2. What's the punishment if they're caught? 3. What kind of conspiracy would need to exist, and is that size*secrecy*duration plausible? For example, patients addicted to opioids would have a strong incentive to keep it secret, as would suppliers making repeated sales. In contrast, people suffering side effects from a vaccine would be motivated to speak out.