3 ms·

By fantastic, I'm talking about this "Mars for half a million dollars in 15 years" talk. It's crazy ambitious. Space X is doing lots of great stuff in new ways,

By fantastic, I'm talking about this "Mars for half a million dollars in 15 years" talk. It's crazy ambitious. Space X is doing lots of great stuff in new ways, but it's all stuff that has been done before. There will be a wall of difficulty, both technical and financial, that will prove extremely difficult to overcome. I will even go as far as to say it's a pipe dream (although I hope I am wrong!). But I've always thought part of Musk's brilliance is that he has a way fo aiming for the stars and landing on the moon. The moon is still pretty cool, but it isn't the stars.

buu700 14y ago
Ah, fair enough; that's pretty different from "SpaceX [as a whole] is fantasy" (much more reasonable). As far as financial issues, SpaceX is pretty hugely successful with commercial launch as it is (even more so with the new NASA deal announced this morning); but, worst case financial scenario (as the inside joke goes), "Hey Congress, we're about to send a manned spacecraft to Mars, and some country's flag is going in with them...". As far as technical issues, I can't really subscribe to the idea that the team hasn't accounted for or will inevitably fail to account for some massive unknown/unforeseen/insurmountable blocker on the road to Mars. It's certainly possible, but there really isn't any fundamentally unique problem (that I can see) in a manned mission to Mars which hasn't already been solved in some form in the past.
- damoncali 14y ago
  Agreed. I should have been more specific. I'm talking only in the context of making a business of sending people to Mars as described vaguely by Musk in various interviews. I am still very skeptical that there is a non-government way to keep someone alive for a round trip. That's a very tough problem to fix with limited finances and time.

3 ms·

By fantastic, I'm talking about this "Mars for half a million dollars in 15 years" talk. It's crazy ambitious. Space X is doing lots of great stuff in new ways,

by damoncali 14y ago

buu700 14y ago
Ah, fair enough; that's pretty different from "SpaceX [as a whole] is fantasy" (much more reasonable). As far as financial issues, SpaceX is pretty hugely successful with commercial launch as it is (even more so with the new NASA deal announced this morning); but, worst case financial scenario (as the inside joke goes), "Hey Congress, we're about to send a manned spacecraft to Mars, and some country's flag is going in with them...". As far as technical issues, I can't really subscribe to the idea that the team hasn't accounted for or will inevitably fail to account for some massive unknown/unforeseen/insurmountable blocker on the road to Mars. It's certainly possible, but there really isn't any fundamentally unique problem (that I can see) in a manned mission to Mars which hasn't already been solved in some form in the past.
- damoncali 14y ago
  Agreed. I should have been more specific. I'm talking only in the context of making a business of sending people to Mars as described vaguely by Musk in various interviews. I am still very skeptical that there is a non-government way to keep someone alive for a round trip. That's a very tough problem to fix with limited finances and time.