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Forecasts will always have some level of uncertainty and if a race is very close a prediction around 50/50 will be the most honest result. A prediction like tha
by rurp 2y ago
Forecasts will always have some level of uncertainty and if a race is very close a prediction around 50/50 will be the most honest result. A prediction like that does have value, just like a prediction that candidate A is a large favorite, it's informing you about the future state of the world.
I'm not sure what you're expecting forecasters to do when they have a 50/50 result. Put a thumb on the scale in a random direction so that you will think they are providing useful information, even though they'll be less accurate?