4 ms·

I’m reading this news with a glimmer of hope. A ceasefire of just 30 days seems like a good starting point, does not require any major concessions from either

by tailspin2019 2y ago

I’m reading this news with a glimmer of hope. A ceasefire of just 30 days seems like a good starting point, does not require any major concessions from either side and puts the ball in Russia’s court. Given the US backing of this proposal, if Russia declines, it sends a pretty clear message about the “reasonableness” of their position (which obviously hasn’t ever been anything close to “reasonable”) and I think makes it that much harder for the Donald to side with them (though who can really predict what he’ll do). If they agree, then hopefully this gives Ukraine just a bit of respite and starts a change of trajectory of this war. It also seems to be a small enough step to help Ukraine and the US realign - as far as that is possible - without looking like a major walk-back of the US position or looking like Ukraine has been strong-armed into something they didn’t really want to agree to (aka minerals deal without guarantees - though that may come next). Still so many challenges ahead but I really hope this ceasefire happens.

kelipso 2y ago
> If they agree, then hopefully this gives Ukraine just a bit of respite and starts a change of trajectory of this war. Looks like Russia is at an advantage in the war right now, so why would it be reasonable for Russia to agree to the ceasefire if this is the case.
- amai 2y ago
  You are implying Russia will only end the war if it has a disadvantage. That means the strategy of the US by putting pressure on Ukraine is completely wrong. It will make things worse. But everybody knew that already except the American president.
  - kelipso 2y ago
    I think at this stage Russia will keep going until it achieves its objectives, main ones being replace Ukrainian govt with a Russian friendly government, annex the Russia speaking regions, demilitarize Ukraine. Whether the current US strategy makes things worse or not is an entirely different question, because you have to take into consideration things like the ability of the US to support Ukraine, the likelihood of Ukraine winning with the support, how much the support can hurt Russia in the long term, the number of people dying from this, the risk of nuclear war, etc.
    - rat87 2y ago
      > I think at this stage Russia will keep going until it achieves its objectives, main ones being replace Ukrainian govt with a Russian friendly government, They made this goal impossible when they attacked Ukraine in 2014. A government that's pro Russia is no longer electable. Zelenskyy could resign and however would replace him would be more anti Russia as well as whoever gets elected next time. Anyone sucking up to Russia would get impeached and could not win re-election in any case. If Russia succeed in making Ukraine a dictatorship with a pet dictator its likely he would be overthrown very quickly. Even if they were able to conquer Ukraine they'd have to occupy it militarily indefinitely at great cost > annex the Russia speaking regions, This seems to pretend that those regions are any more happy to be joining Russia then the rest of Ukraine. Also it ignores that many people are changing to speaking Ukrainian even among people who immigrated from russia and people whose Ukrainian was not great until recently. > demilitarize Ukraine. Ukraine would never agree to this after what Russia has pulled. > Whether the current US strategy makes things worse or not is an entirely different question, because you have to take into consideration things like the ability of the US to support Ukraine, The US can keep supporting Ukraine as long as it wants to. The only reason it wouldn't is if a crazy guy was in charge and he decides to backstab our allies and undermine/destroy our government and national interests. > the likelihood of Ukraine winning with the support, Winning is hard but at least with US support Russian victory is practically impossible > how much the support can hurt Russia in the long term The main reason US wants to damage Russia is to prevent it from conquering Ukraine or from attacking other countries after that. >the number of people dying from this, the risk of nuclear war, etc Compare with risk of giving into nuclear bullying which encourages more bullying and makes nuclear weapon use much more likely in the medium term. The safer move is to call their bluff

kelipso 2y ago

> If they agree, then hopefully this gives Ukraine just a bit of respite and starts a change of trajectory of this war. Looks like Russia is at an advantage in the war right now, so why would it be reasonable for Russia to agree to the ceasefire if this is the case.

amai 2y ago
You are implying Russia will only end the war if it has a disadvantage. That means the strategy of the US by putting pressure on Ukraine is completely wrong. It will make things worse. But everybody knew that already except the American president.
- kelipso 2y ago
  I think at this stage Russia will keep going until it achieves its objectives, main ones being replace Ukrainian govt with a Russian friendly government, annex the Russia speaking regions, demilitarize Ukraine. Whether the current US strategy makes things worse or not is an entirely different question, because you have to take into consideration things like the ability of the US to support Ukraine, the likelihood of Ukraine winning with the support, how much the support can hurt Russia in the long term, the number of people dying from this, the risk of nuclear war, etc.
  - rat87 2y ago
    > I think at this stage Russia will keep going until it achieves its objectives, main ones being replace Ukrainian govt with a Russian friendly government, They made this goal impossible when they attacked Ukraine in 2014. A government that's pro Russia is no longer electable. Zelenskyy could resign and however would replace him would be more anti Russia as well as whoever gets elected next time. Anyone sucking up to Russia would get impeached and could not win re-election in any case. If Russia succeed in making Ukraine a dictatorship with a pet dictator its likely he would be overthrown very quickly. Even if they were able to conquer Ukraine they'd have to occupy it militarily indefinitely at great cost > annex the Russia speaking regions, This seems to pretend that those regions are any more happy to be joining Russia then the rest of Ukraine. Also it ignores that many people are changing to speaking Ukrainian even among people who immigrated from russia and people whose Ukrainian was not great until recently. > demilitarize Ukraine. Ukraine would never agree to this after what Russia has pulled. > Whether the current US strategy makes things worse or not is an entirely different question, because you have to take into consideration things like the ability of the US to support Ukraine, The US can keep supporting Ukraine as long as it wants to. The only reason it wouldn't is if a crazy guy was in charge and he decides to backstab our allies and undermine/destroy our government and national interests. > the likelihood of Ukraine winning with the support, Winning is hard but at least with US support Russian victory is practically impossible > how much the support can hurt Russia in the long term The main reason US wants to damage Russia is to prevent it from conquering Ukraine or from attacking other countries after that. >the number of people dying from this, the risk of nuclear war, etc Compare with risk of giving into nuclear bullying which encourages more bullying and makes nuclear weapon use much more likely in the medium term. The safer move is to call their bluff