3 ms·
50-50 means "I have 0 no useful information". Some facts are more useful than others.
by gowld 2y ago
50-50 means "I have 0 no useful information". Some facts are more useful than others.
- rurp 2y agoForecasts will always have some level of uncertainty and if a race is very close a prediction around 50/50 will be the most honest result. A prediction like that does have value, just like a prediction that candidate A is a large favorite, it's informing you about the future state of the world. I'm not sure what you're expecting forecasters to do when they have a 50/50 result. Put a thumb on the scale in a random direction so that you will think they are providing useful information, even though they'll be less accurate?