Thank you! Lordy it's crazy that this thread isn't distinguishing polls which are a measurement and the resulting prediction based on those polls. If you polle

Thank you! Lordy it's crazy that this thread isn't distinguishing polls which are a measurement and the resulting prediction based on those polls. If you polled 60%/40% yea/nay you wouldn't give the nays a 40% chance of winning. You need P(yeas > 50%) based on your observed measurement.