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That's not how polls work though. A poll shows how a sample of people say they'll vote. An ideal poll would have the same proportions as the final popular vote
by t-3 2y ago
That's not how polls work though. A poll shows how a sample of people say they'll vote. An ideal poll would have the same proportions as the final popular vote count.
- Spivak 2y agoThank you! Lordy it's crazy that this thread isn't distinguishing polls which are a measurement and the resulting prediction based on those polls. If you polled 60%/40% yea/nay you wouldn't give the nays a 40% chance of winning. You need P(yeas > 50%) based on your observed measurement.