You’re welcome to bet against my prediction market about whether the quarter I flip will land on mars. Or on the two markets for “New pope by tomorrow” and “ne

You’re welcome to bet against my prediction market about whether the quarter I flip will land on mars. Or on the two markets for “New pope by tomorrow” and “new pope by 2030”, I’m sure those should both be 50% yes. My experience is that the vast majority of prediction markets do not tend towards 50/50 because reality isn’t 100% uncertain.