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It’s more of a systemic failure than a single mistake. If you’re a business that releases one major product version every year or two that accounts for your ent
by ilikehurdles 2y ago
It’s more of a systemic failure than a single mistake. If you’re a business that releases one major product version every year or two that accounts for your entire revenue, and you completely blow the product on the last release, there’s a good chance you’re not getting another chance if you’re a small-medium business. Compare her firm to any number of smaller gaming and entertainment studios.
Selzer wasn’t gallup or some other big player that was continuously releasing a wide range of evolving polls, but a once-an-election shop that was multiple standard deviations away from reality in the wrong direction, on the biggest stage in history. Who would contract Selzer ever again?
- gowld 2y agoSomeone who understands that 97% success rate is better than much smaller success rate?
- ilikehurdles 2y agoSounds like the success rate of Arthur Andersen. Whatever happened to them? A pollster’s reputation isn’t everything, but it’s close.
- rurp 2y ago> Who would contract Selzer ever again? Presumably anyone who is familiar with her overall body of work and the concept of an outlier. Pollsters are increasingly herding. Perhaps after this election all unexpected results will be suppressed or adjusted, which seems to be what you're advocating for.
- bryanlarsen 2y ago> Who would contract Selzer ever again? People like hedge funds, who don't care about perception, have a mechanism to turn accuracy into dollars and can ride out occasional misses.