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The odds on Polymarket (and other betting markets) started diverging at the start of October; by the end of the month, the odds were 65/35 in favour of Trump.

The odds on Polymarket (and other betting markets) started diverging at the start of October; by the end of the month, the odds were 65/35 in favour of Trump. At the time, many commentators were arguing that this was obvious market manipulation. It turned out that the trader who had supposedly manipulated the market had in fact commissioned private polls using an alternative methodology - rather than asking people how they would vote, it asked how they expected their neighbours to vote. https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024 https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-20... https://www.ft.com/content/e8b2ff85-a4dd-40cd-a4c1-e3d70686917f https://www.ft.com/content/e8b2ff85-a4dd-40cd-a4c1-e3d706869... https://www.ft.com/content/4b302ab8-7e40-4d1a-bbe6-3d46f6811d85 https://www.ft.com/content/4b302ab8-7e40-4d1a-bbe6-3d46f6811...

thierrydamiba 2y ago
Was this a new development in polling?
- DrillShopper 2y ago
  Can't wait to check the DraftKings odds on the presidential election before I head to the polls to see if it's worth bothering to vote./s
- Izkata 2y ago
  No, it was fairly well known a decade or more ago as a very good way to remove bias for how low-effort it is. We were using a variation of it at work back then for an unrelated subject. How much it's used in political polling I can't say.
  - thierrydamiba 2y ago
    It just seems so obvious-I would have been surprised if it was only discovered in the last election.
AnimalMuppet 2y ago
Interesting. If you think about it, that's how the stock market works. It's not how much you think a stock is worth; it's really how much you think everyone else thinks the stock is worth.
- ngriffiths 2y ago
  Yes but unlike with stocks, you don't want to agree with them: if you think people overrate the chances of an event, you'd against it.
  - qznc 2y ago
    That is similar with stocks. I'd say the difference is that PolyMarket has an end date where everything gets resolved one way or another. Stocks can go on forever.
    - ngriffiths 2y ago
      Oh you're right, it is basically the same, the undervalued stock is the one to buy. I guess I was thinking about another difference which is that the value of stocks seems more vibes-based and a really stupid product (from the investor's perspective) can sometimes become popular. In prediction markets the outcome is more concrete.

thierrydamiba 2y ago

Was this a new development in polling?

DrillShopper 2y ago
Can't wait to check the DraftKings odds on the presidential election before I head to the polls to see if it's worth bothering to vote./s
Izkata 2y ago
No, it was fairly well known a decade or more ago as a very good way to remove bias for how low-effort it is. We were using a variation of it at work back then for an unrelated subject. How much it's used in political polling I can't say.
- thierrydamiba 2y ago
  It just seems so obvious-I would have been surprised if it was only discovered in the last election.

AnimalMuppet 2y ago

Interesting. If you think about it, that's how the stock market works. It's not how much you think a stock is worth; it's really how much you think everyone else thinks the stock is worth.

ngriffiths 2y ago
Yes but unlike with stocks, you don't want to agree with them: if you think people overrate the chances of an event, you'd against it.
- qznc 2y ago
  That is similar with stocks. I'd say the difference is that PolyMarket has an end date where everything gets resolved one way or another. Stocks can go on forever.
  - ngriffiths 2y ago
    Oh you're right, it is basically the same, the undervalued stock is the one to buy. I guess I was thinking about another difference which is that the value of stocks seems more vibes-based and a really stupid product (from the investor's perspective) can sometimes become popular. In prediction markets the outcome is more concrete.