3 ms·

Wall Street Fears Trump Will Wreck the Soft Landing

16 points by karmsingh 2y ago

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
bbor 2y ago
Surprisingly, the administration who first devised an economic strategy and then found one (!!!) economist to support it[1] is bucking conventional wisdom on how to run an economy. The article says it well: when the president is telling us to "buckle our seatbelts", you should expect hard times ahead. I'd love to be wrong for my loved ones' sakes, but IMO the technical parameters are bleak: 1. Such a huge downturn in government employment that they're proposing removing government spending from GDP[2][3] (which would make for an unbalanced ledger). 2. Cratering consumer sentiment in reaction to both real and imagined threats.[4][5] 3. Growing solidarity in NA & Europe against US trade war tactics, especially for countries where they're driven by provably-false claims about Fentanyl (how does one solve a non-existent problem, even if you wanted to cave?)[6] 4. Vought slowly taking direct control over the Fed, which would obviously send confidence in the dollar into a tailspin. So far they're not claiming control over the fed's monetary activity, but the writing is on the wall to say the least.[7] Not looking great! "Hard Landing" is the best case scenario at this point, IMHO... [1] https://financialpost.com/news/stephen-miran-economist-trump-economic-advisory-team https://financialpost.com/news/stephen-miran-economist-trump... [2] https://apnews.com/article/trump-gdp-economy-government-spending-lutnick-7414ba1bd441bd4bf64620bfd66923b2 https://apnews.com/article/trump-gdp-economy-government-spen... [3] https://bsky.app/profile/quantian.bsky.social/post/3ljijddpvbc2r https://bsky.app/profile/quantian.bsky.social/post/3ljijddpv... [4] https://bsky.app/profile/peark.es/post/3lip32so7k22h https://bsky.app/profile/peark.es/post/3lip32so7k22h [5] https://bsky.app/profile/peark.es/post/3liz5aggx4c2l https://bsky.app/profile/peark.es/post/3liz5aggx4c2l [6] https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/03/politics/us-canada-trade-fentanyl-fact-check/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/03/politics/us-canada-trade-fent... [7] https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25538563-ending-independent-agencies-eo/?mode=text https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25538563-ending-inde...
suraci 2y ago
There's no such thing as 'soft landing' at the beginning trump received a ticking bomb from the biden admin, his best option is to trigger the bomb as soon as possible, otherwise he would become the worst president since Hoover again, I'm not defending Trump. if Harris wins the election, she will also become the most failed president https://www.thedailyupside.com/economics/after-bashing-janet-yellens-approach-to-debt-issuance-bessent-keeps-it-for-now/ https://www.thedailyupside.com/economics/after-bashing-janet... https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/21/nonfarm-payroll-growth-revised-down-by-818000-labor-department-says.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/21/nonfarm-payroll-growth-revis...
- sp_c 2y ago
  This argument is tired and frustrating. I have heard it so many times. A new government comes to power promising a whole bunch, fails miserably, then says 'well I inherited this, it isn't my fault' and walks back all the promises (or just ignores them). If you want to make an argument that the state of the US economy is in peril, feel free, but dragging this common trope into the discussion doesn't help.
  - rlnvlc 2y ago
    It is like those I-am-not-really-MAGA-pretenders forgot that Trump launched a nonsensical trade war against US allies, which has started all this drama in the first place.
  - suraci 2y ago
    I'm not saying it's not trump's fault it's people like you saying it's not biden/dems' fault if the Biden admin can effectively control the deficit, if Powell can maintain the Fed's independence without cutting interest rates too soon, if Yellen can plan bond duration allocation with a long-term, nonpartisan strategy, a recession may occur during Biden's term, but its consequences will not be as severe. it's americans like you make all this happen by pardoning all the failure of the party you support believe it or not, i'm not a maga, i'm the one standing on the shore watching all this happening

16 points by karmsingh 2y ago

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

bbor 2y ago

Surprisingly, the administration who first devised an economic strategy and then found one (!!!) economist to support it[1] is bucking conventional wisdom on how to run an economy. The article says it well: when the president is telling us to "buckle our seatbelts", you should expect hard times ahead. I'd love to be wrong for my loved ones' sakes, but IMO the technical parameters are bleak: 1. Such a huge downturn in government employment that they're proposing removing government spending from GDP[2][3] (which would make for an unbalanced ledger). 2. Cratering consumer sentiment in reaction to both real and imagined threats.[4][5] 3. Growing solidarity in NA & Europe against US trade war tactics, especially for countries where they're driven by provably-false claims about Fentanyl (how does one solve a non-existent problem, even if you wanted to cave?)[6] 4. Vought slowly taking direct control over the Fed, which would obviously send confidence in the dollar into a tailspin. So far they're not claiming control over the fed's monetary activity, but the writing is on the wall to say the least.[7] Not looking great! "Hard Landing" is the best case scenario at this point, IMHO... [1] https://financialpost.com/news/stephen-miran-economist-trump-economic-advisory-team https://financialpost.com/news/stephen-miran-economist-trump... [2] https://apnews.com/article/trump-gdp-economy-government-spending-lutnick-7414ba1bd441bd4bf64620bfd66923b2 https://apnews.com/article/trump-gdp-economy-government-spen... [3] https://bsky.app/profile/quantian.bsky.social/post/3ljijddpvbc2r https://bsky.app/profile/quantian.bsky.social/post/3ljijddpv... [4] https://bsky.app/profile/peark.es/post/3lip32so7k22h https://bsky.app/profile/peark.es/post/3lip32so7k22h [5] https://bsky.app/profile/peark.es/post/3liz5aggx4c2l https://bsky.app/profile/peark.es/post/3liz5aggx4c2l [6] https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/03/politics/us-canada-trade-fentanyl-fact-check/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/03/politics/us-canada-trade-fent... [7] https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25538563-ending-independent-agencies-eo/?mode=text https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25538563-ending-inde...

suraci 2y ago

There's no such thing as 'soft landing' at the beginning trump received a ticking bomb from the biden admin, his best option is to trigger the bomb as soon as possible, otherwise he would become the worst president since Hoover again, I'm not defending Trump. if Harris wins the election, she will also become the most failed president https://www.thedailyupside.com/economics/after-bashing-janet-yellens-approach-to-debt-issuance-bessent-keeps-it-for-now/ https://www.thedailyupside.com/economics/after-bashing-janet... https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/21/nonfarm-payroll-growth-revised-down-by-818000-labor-department-says.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/21/nonfarm-payroll-growth-revis...

sp_c 2y ago
This argument is tired and frustrating. I have heard it so many times. A new government comes to power promising a whole bunch, fails miserably, then says 'well I inherited this, it isn't my fault' and walks back all the promises (or just ignores them). If you want to make an argument that the state of the US economy is in peril, feel free, but dragging this common trope into the discussion doesn't help.
- rlnvlc 2y ago
  It is like those I-am-not-really-MAGA-pretenders forgot that Trump launched a nonsensical trade war against US allies, which has started all this drama in the first place.
- suraci 2y ago
  I'm not saying it's not trump's fault it's people like you saying it's not biden/dems' fault if the Biden admin can effectively control the deficit, if Powell can maintain the Fed's independence without cutting interest rates too soon, if Yellen can plan bond duration allocation with a long-term, nonpartisan strategy, a recession may occur during Biden's term, but its consequences will not be as severe. it's americans like you make all this happen by pardoning all the failure of the party you support believe it or not, i'm not a maga, i'm the one standing on the shore watching all this happening