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Well, the fact that Trump is breaking all the treaties one after the other are certainly not encouraging for markets, but there are also many signs that suggest
by Yoric 2y ago
Well, the fact that Trump is breaking all the treaties one after the other are certainly not encouraging for markets, but there are also many signs that suggest that:
1. Trump is planning to deflate the dollar (not the least of which being that this his Secretary of Treasury wrote a plan to do this);
2. Trump might be planning to re-negotiate the US debt, for what I believe is the first time in history.
Neither is the kind of thing that the markets enjoy seeing. After all, if the dollar is deflated by 50% (I'm inventing that number), all the money invested in Wall Street suddenly loses 50% of its value.
Also, I've read a few economists, and they seem to agree that the prosperity of the US is largely a bubble based on the (artificially) strong dollar, but that the same strong dollar is killing US exports. By these accounts, Trump's maneuvers are an attempt to pop that bubble, which might be good, but will destroy the prosperity bubble, which nobody really wants. Whether it's true or not, that hypothesis is a good reason to not invest in US economy.
And none of these three points can be fixed easily.
- rat87 2y ago> Also, I've read a few economists, and they seem to agree that the prosperity of the US is largely a bubble based on the (artificially) strong dollar, but that the same strong dollar is killing US exports. By these accounts, Trump's maneuvers are an attempt to pop that bubble, which might be good, but will destroy the prosperity bubble, which nobody really wants. Whether it's true or not, that hypothesis is a good reason to not invest in US economy. Not a bubble, can argue what artificially means but crashing the economy to get slightly more manufacturing is obviously bad short and long term