4 ms·

I am not sure I agree that we lack major economic indicators flashing red. For instance, GDPNow from the Atlanta Fed looks quite bad at the moment: https://www

I am not sure I agree that we lack major economic indicators flashing red. For instance, GDPNow from the Atlanta Fed looks quite bad at the moment: https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow I also have been looking at deliquency rates on industrial equipment leases lately, and they seem to be trending sharply upward: https://www.fitchratings.com/structured-finance/abs/equipment-indices#abs-equipment-indices https://www.fitchratings.com/structured-finance/abs/equipmen... Major retailers are also managing expectations for the next quarters. It seems like they're bracing for soft aggregate demand.

_DeadFred_ 2y ago
Walmart raising alarms as well: https://www.thestreet.com/retail/walmart-ceo-sounds-alarm-on-a-big-problem-for-customers https://www.thestreet.com/retail/walmart-ceo-sounds-alarm-on... Car loan delinquencies at record level: https://www.axios.com/2025/03/07/car-loan-payment-delinquencies-record-high https://www.axios.com/2025/03/07/car-loan-payment-delinquenc...
bjtitus 2y ago
I keep seeing people post the Atlanta GDP forecast without context around the short term import imbalance. "the January surge in imports - especially for gold - caused the model to move negative. As the Atlanta Fed noted: "the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.41 percentage points to -3.70 percentage points". Usually there would be an offsetting increase in inventories, but that is a lagging indicator. This is a short-term distortion and will balance out over the next month or so. I don't expect negative GDP in Q1." [1] 1: https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/a-comment-on-gdpnow.html https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/a-comment-on-gdpn...
- noleary 2y ago
  They have published 'gold-adjusted' figures which are still qualitatively quite bad. https://x.com/AtlantaFed/status/1898126061184971150 https://x.com/AtlantaFed/status/1898126061184971150
bdangubic 2y ago
see same from 3 months ago :) shit did not fall off the cliff in a few months

_DeadFred_ 2y ago

Walmart raising alarms as well: https://www.thestreet.com/retail/walmart-ceo-sounds-alarm-on-a-big-problem-for-customers https://www.thestreet.com/retail/walmart-ceo-sounds-alarm-on... Car loan delinquencies at record level: https://www.axios.com/2025/03/07/car-loan-payment-delinquencies-record-high https://www.axios.com/2025/03/07/car-loan-payment-delinquenc...

bjtitus 2y ago

I keep seeing people post the Atlanta GDP forecast without context around the short term import imbalance. "the January surge in imports - especially for gold - caused the model to move negative. As the Atlanta Fed noted: "the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.41 percentage points to -3.70 percentage points". Usually there would be an offsetting increase in inventories, but that is a lagging indicator. This is a short-term distortion and will balance out over the next month or so. I don't expect negative GDP in Q1." [1] 1: https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/a-comment-on-gdpnow.html https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/a-comment-on-gdpn...

noleary 2y ago
They have published 'gold-adjusted' figures which are still qualitatively quite bad. https://x.com/AtlantaFed/status/1898126061184971150 https://x.com/AtlantaFed/status/1898126061184971150

bdangubic 2y ago

see same from 3 months ago :) shit did not fall off the cliff in a few months