2 ms·

> [...] buying low now would be nice. Just to be clear, the point of the linked article is that you cannot know that now is the LOW and not the new high.

michaelscott 2y ago
That's the premise yeah, but it makes sense to buy more on red days
- mjburgess 2y ago
  But that can't possibly be the case -- since such a simple strategy is already priced into the red. Anything accessible to any person without days/weeks of research or insider knowledge is already priced-in. All the people rationally "buying the dip" are doing so as the price dips. Any time you buy, you are betting on a future price against everyone else making bets. Most of those other people, who can move markets, are spending their entire lives in R&D to eek out a slightly better bet. You're a mark if you think you can price better than them -- and they are the ones presently setting the price.
throw0101b 2y ago
> Just to be clear, the point of the linked article is that you cannot know that now is the LOW and not the new high. And even if you did know ahead of time when the dip would occur, this article show it's still generally best to DCA instead of sitting in cash: * https://ofdollarsanddata.com/even-god-couldnt-beat-dollar-cost-averaging/ https://ofdollarsanddata.com/even-god-couldnt-beat-dollar-co...
ARandumGuy 2y ago
That's why the phrase "don't try and catch a falling knife" exists. We have no idea if prices will rebound shortly, or continue to take a nose-dive. Trying to time the market is a gambling strategy, not an investment strategy.
- immibis 2y ago
  Buying the market at all is a gambling strategy. You cannot be in the market without timing it. For example, just last week, I realized I had a bunch of money sitting in my crypto exchange that I thought was in Bitcoin, so I traded it for Bitcoin. Now it's worth 80% as much.
  - throw0101b 2y ago
    > Buying the market at all is a gambling strategy. You cannot be in the market without timing it. If you buy a little every pay cheque automatically, without looking whether things are up or down, how much are you really "timing" versus simply investing? (Especially if you buy a globally diversified fund like VT.)

michaelscott 2y ago

That's the premise yeah, but it makes sense to buy more on red days

mjburgess 2y ago
But that can't possibly be the case -- since such a simple strategy is already priced into the red. Anything accessible to any person without days/weeks of research or insider knowledge is already priced-in. All the people rationally "buying the dip" are doing so as the price dips. Any time you buy, you are betting on a future price against everyone else making bets. Most of those other people, who can move markets, are spending their entire lives in R&D to eek out a slightly better bet. You're a mark if you think you can price better than them -- and they are the ones presently setting the price.

throw0101b 2y ago

> Just to be clear, the point of the linked article is that you cannot know that now is the LOW and not the new high. And even if you did know ahead of time when the dip would occur, this article show it's still generally best to DCA instead of sitting in cash: * https://ofdollarsanddata.com/even-god-couldnt-beat-dollar-cost-averaging/ https://ofdollarsanddata.com/even-god-couldnt-beat-dollar-co...

ARandumGuy 2y ago

That's why the phrase "don't try and catch a falling knife" exists. We have no idea if prices will rebound shortly, or continue to take a nose-dive. Trying to time the market is a gambling strategy, not an investment strategy.

immibis 2y ago
Buying the market at all is a gambling strategy. You cannot be in the market without timing it. For example, just last week, I realized I had a bunch of money sitting in my crypto exchange that I thought was in Bitcoin, so I traded it for Bitcoin. Now it's worth 80% as much.
- throw0101b 2y ago
  > Buying the market at all is a gambling strategy. You cannot be in the market without timing it. If you buy a little every pay cheque automatically, without looking whether things are up or down, how much are you really "timing" versus simply investing? (Especially if you buy a globally diversified fund like VT.)