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Thanks for your comment. I am arguing the hype has peaked, and that there will likely be a pull back in investment in the next year. This is not to say the tec

Thanks for your comment. I am arguing the hype has peaked, and that there will likely be a pull back in investment in the next year. This is not to say the technology has "peaked", which I'm not sure one could even define precisely. Important technologies emerged during each past "AI summer", and did not disappear during "AI winter". LISP is more popular than ever, despite the collapse of hype in symbolic reasoning AI decades ago. As I mention in the OP, I think productivity enhancing tools for developers are one of the LLM applications that is here to stay. If I didn't think so, I wouldn't be concerned about the impact on skill development among developers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter

alexpotato 2y ago
Counter point: The decline in NVDA stock price may also be due to newer models that require fewer GPUs, specifically from NVDA. In other words, the demand may stay the same but if fewer GPUs in general or non-NVDA GPUs specifically get you to the same point performance-wise then the supply just went up.
- dowager_dan99 2y ago
  this seems realistic with consideration of a lot of previous tech advancements. We focus on the disruption, but meanwhile the efficiency improvements follow closely (and often more easily) on the coat-tails. We should definitely be looking for more efficient production of what's already been proven, vs. the next big step happening immediately.
breckenedge 2y ago
Thanks for the clarification. IMO, the recent draw down in investment is political as people are seeing the US tech giants facing a more uncertain future under the current administration. https://stocks.apple.com/AaYuqQyN_QVOYHhUY2G0IHg https://stocks.apple.com/AaYuqQyN_QVOYHhUY2G0IHg
Yoric 2y ago
If my memory serves, both SQL and HTML are indirect fallouts from an AI summer, too.

alexpotato 2y ago

Counter point: The decline in NVDA stock price may also be due to newer models that require fewer GPUs, specifically from NVDA. In other words, the demand may stay the same but if fewer GPUs in general or non-NVDA GPUs specifically get you to the same point performance-wise then the supply just went up.

dowager_dan99 2y ago
this seems realistic with consideration of a lot of previous tech advancements. We focus on the disruption, but meanwhile the efficiency improvements follow closely (and often more easily) on the coat-tails. We should definitely be looking for more efficient production of what's already been proven, vs. the next big step happening immediately.

breckenedge 2y ago

Thanks for the clarification. IMO, the recent draw down in investment is political as people are seeing the US tech giants facing a more uncertain future under the current administration. https://stocks.apple.com/AaYuqQyN_QVOYHhUY2G0IHg https://stocks.apple.com/AaYuqQyN_QVOYHhUY2G0IHg

Yoric 2y ago

If my memory serves, both SQL and HTML are indirect fallouts from an AI summer, too.