4 ms·

One thing I'd love to short is the idea that we're going to have a second AI winter. Lots of people predict it but I believe this time is actually a real step f

by qoez 2y ago

One thing I'd love to short is the idea that we're going to have a second AI winter. Lots of people predict it but I believe this time is actually a real step function innovation (and last time was caused by it being a very distant research project and money dried out because competition with the much more lucrative internet which was growing at the same time).

somewhereoutth 2y ago
It will be the third major winter - there was one around 1974-1980 as well as 1987-2000. I don't believe the previous 'summers' entailed quite the scale of [mal]investment that has occurred this time, so the impending winter will be correspondingly savage.
secretmark 2y ago
Why would you need to short it? If you believe that is true just go long on AI stocks or buy calls on these companies
- _ea1k 2y ago
  Going long on AI stocks is fairly hard. OpenAI, Antrophic, and xAI are privately held, as are most of the robotics companies and companies. Companies like Amazon, Google, or Tesla might are sort of AI investments, but they are just subsidiaries or small fractions of the parent (Zoox, Waymo, FSD, etc). This isn't quite like the dot-com era, with tons of pure play investment options avaialable, regardless of whether you want to go long or short.
Veedrac 2y ago
> Lots of people predict it Yup. 2009 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=855684 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=855684 2017 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14790251 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14790251 2018 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17184054 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17184054 2019 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21613997 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21613997 2022 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30622300 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30622300 2023 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35091237 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35091237 2024 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40739431 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40739431

by qoez 2y ago

somewhereoutth 2y ago

It will be the third major winter - there was one around 1974-1980 as well as 1987-2000. I don't believe the previous 'summers' entailed quite the scale of [mal]investment that has occurred this time, so the impending winter will be correspondingly savage.

secretmark 2y ago

Why would you need to short it? If you believe that is true just go long on AI stocks or buy calls on these companies

_ea1k 2y ago
Going long on AI stocks is fairly hard. OpenAI, Antrophic, and xAI are privately held, as are most of the robotics companies and companies. Companies like Amazon, Google, or Tesla might are sort of AI investments, but they are just subsidiaries or small fractions of the parent (Zoox, Waymo, FSD, etc). This isn't quite like the dot-com era, with tons of pure play investment options avaialable, regardless of whether you want to go long or short.

Veedrac 2y ago

> Lots of people predict it Yup. 2009 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=855684 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=855684 2017 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14790251 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14790251 2018 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17184054 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17184054 2019 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21613997 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21613997 2022 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30622300 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30622300 2023 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35091237 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35091237 2024 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40739431 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40739431