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This article is way too light on the details. Does it conflate Nvidia’s stock price with interest in generative AI? New use cases for it are arriving every mont

This article is way too light on the details. Does it conflate Nvidia’s stock price with interest in generative AI? New use cases for it are arriving every month. 9 months ago I was amazed to use Cursor, and was leading getting my team to switch to it. 3 months ago it was that Cursor had added agents and trying to again demonstrate their benefits to my colleagues. Now I’m using Cline + Claude 3.7 and more productive than I’ve ever been — and I haven’t even touched MCPs yet. Definitely not yet peaked IMO. However yea, I don’t see it fully replacing developers in the next 1-2 years — still gets caught in loops way too often and makes silly mistakes.

Etheryte 2y ago
I would say the hype has started to fall off, as it's becoming increasingly obvious that AGI is not around the corner, but meanwhile practical use cases keep getting better and better. The more we understand the strengths and weaknesses, the better we can exploit them, and even if the models themselves have hit the scaling wall, I think tooling around them is far from done.
bwestergard 2y ago
Thanks for your comment. I am arguing the hype has peaked, and that there will likely be a pull back in investment in the next year. This is not to say the technology has "peaked", which I'm not sure one could even define precisely. Important technologies emerged during each past "AI summer", and did not disappear during "AI winter". LISP is more popular than ever, despite the collapse of hype in symbolic reasoning AI decades ago. As I mention in the OP, I think productivity enhancing tools for developers are one of the LLM applications that is here to stay. If I didn't think so, I wouldn't be concerned about the impact on skill development among developers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter
- alexpotato 2y ago
  Counter point: The decline in NVDA stock price may also be due to newer models that require fewer GPUs, specifically from NVDA. In other words, the demand may stay the same but if fewer GPUs in general or non-NVDA GPUs specifically get you to the same point performance-wise then the supply just went up.
  - dowager_dan99 2y ago
    this seems realistic with consideration of a lot of previous tech advancements. We focus on the disruption, but meanwhile the efficiency improvements follow closely (and often more easily) on the coat-tails. We should definitely be looking for more efficient production of what's already been proven, vs. the next big step happening immediately.
- breckenedge 2y ago
  Thanks for the clarification. IMO, the recent draw down in investment is political as people are seeing the US tech giants facing a more uncertain future under the current administration. https://stocks.apple.com/AaYuqQyN_QVOYHhUY2G0IHg https://stocks.apple.com/AaYuqQyN_QVOYHhUY2G0IHg
- Yoric 2y ago
  If my memory serves, both SQL and HTML are indirect fallouts from an AI summer, too.
yubblegum 2y ago
> Nvidia’s stock price Market may be pricing in possible takeover of Taiwan by China.
MangoCoffee 2y ago
AI is just a tool. Its not going to replace human coder anytime soon.
- giantrobot 2y ago
  That's not what the C-suite is telling their boards/investors as they conduct layoffs to goose margins at the end of the quarter. So a lot of people are having their lives and livelihoods upended because of unrestrained hype.
- beernet 2y ago
  >> Its not going to replace human coder anytime soon. Not sure if this arrogant POV is very sustainable. This technology is replacing human coders as we speak, right now. Just not all of them yet, of course.
maxglute 2y ago
Peaking hype = investers think generative AI may replace billions instead of trillions of economic activity in the return window they're looking at.
- breckenedge 2y ago
  I believe it continues to get faster and better from here. We haven’t even scratched the surface of deployed capabilities yet. Sure it might not be a path to AGI, but it could still replace many people in many roles. It may not be a specific company’s silicon that wins, but generative AI is just getting started. Yes, Claude 3.7 and ChatGPT 4.5 are not as groundbreaking as previous iterations, but there are so many untouched areas ripe for investment.

Etheryte 2y ago

I would say the hype has started to fall off, as it's becoming increasingly obvious that AGI is not around the corner, but meanwhile practical use cases keep getting better and better. The more we understand the strengths and weaknesses, the better we can exploit them, and even if the models themselves have hit the scaling wall, I think tooling around them is far from done.

bwestergard 2y ago

Thanks for your comment. I am arguing the hype has peaked, and that there will likely be a pull back in investment in the next year. This is not to say the technology has "peaked", which I'm not sure one could even define precisely. Important technologies emerged during each past "AI summer", and did not disappear during "AI winter". LISP is more popular than ever, despite the collapse of hype in symbolic reasoning AI decades ago. As I mention in the OP, I think productivity enhancing tools for developers are one of the LLM applications that is here to stay. If I didn't think so, I wouldn't be concerned about the impact on skill development among developers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter

alexpotato 2y ago
Counter point: The decline in NVDA stock price may also be due to newer models that require fewer GPUs, specifically from NVDA. In other words, the demand may stay the same but if fewer GPUs in general or non-NVDA GPUs specifically get you to the same point performance-wise then the supply just went up.
- dowager_dan99 2y ago
  this seems realistic with consideration of a lot of previous tech advancements. We focus on the disruption, but meanwhile the efficiency improvements follow closely (and often more easily) on the coat-tails. We should definitely be looking for more efficient production of what's already been proven, vs. the next big step happening immediately.
breckenedge 2y ago
Thanks for the clarification. IMO, the recent draw down in investment is political as people are seeing the US tech giants facing a more uncertain future under the current administration. https://stocks.apple.com/AaYuqQyN_QVOYHhUY2G0IHg https://stocks.apple.com/AaYuqQyN_QVOYHhUY2G0IHg
Yoric 2y ago
If my memory serves, both SQL and HTML are indirect fallouts from an AI summer, too.

yubblegum 2y ago

> Nvidia’s stock price Market may be pricing in possible takeover of Taiwan by China.

MangoCoffee 2y ago

AI is just a tool. Its not going to replace human coder anytime soon.

giantrobot 2y ago
That's not what the C-suite is telling their boards/investors as they conduct layoffs to goose margins at the end of the quarter. So a lot of people are having their lives and livelihoods upended because of unrestrained hype.
beernet 2y ago
>> Its not going to replace human coder anytime soon. Not sure if this arrogant POV is very sustainable. This technology is replacing human coders as we speak, right now. Just not all of them yet, of course.

maxglute 2y ago

Peaking hype = investers think generative AI may replace billions instead of trillions of economic activity in the return window they're looking at.

breckenedge 2y ago
I believe it continues to get faster and better from here. We haven’t even scratched the surface of deployed capabilities yet. Sure it might not be a path to AGI, but it could still replace many people in many roles. It may not be a specific company’s silicon that wins, but generative AI is just getting started. Yes, Claude 3.7 and ChatGPT 4.5 are not as groundbreaking as previous iterations, but there are so many untouched areas ripe for investment.