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Investors love to hang engineers when things don’t go according to plan, but the reality is that R+D means doing something where the outcome is totally unknown.

Investors love to hang engineers when things don’t go according to plan, but the reality is that R+D means doing something where the outcome is totally unknown. Time blows out and things don’t go the way you expect: it’s nearly unavoidable. Something like 30% of projects (anecdotal) are never finished and 85% (from a study) go over time and budget. The whole time, the end of the line seems like it’s just around the corner. It’s super scary, yes, but that’s why deep tech investment is at an all time low in western countries. China’s dominant attitude - not being scared of it - is also why China is winning across the board in EVs and deep tech. Perfection isn’t a human trait: actually, holding others to perfection but not yourself is a sign of diagnosable narcissism. Therefore when someone seems to be trying their best, I think it needs to be interpreted in good faith and not as a criminal offence if they don’t meet their mark.

majormajor 2y ago
How much of the Tesla failure to catch up with Waymo in self-driving is because of a Elon-dictated limitation on the tools and technologies they can use? Elon threw out a lot of the "R" part of R&D and said "just develop this approach I chose." The critiques of Tesla self-driving are not saying it isn't a hard problem, they are the: * Elon acts like it's an easier problem than it is in terms of constraining how his company approaches it * Elon ALSO acts like it's an easier problem than it is in terms of his claims about when it will be done, in a way that offers potential harm to purchasers and investors It's hard to say he's "trying his best" to be honest about the timelines when they've slipped this many times.
- aetherspawn 2y ago
  Are there any consumer cars fitted with LiDAR that also advertise FSD capability? If not: perhaps something like a Waymo fit-out is way outside a consumers normal capability to afford, or even clean and maintain? I’m not convinced either way yet. But I think the need to fulfill the FSD promise to prior buyers is one reason why FSD would need to happen without LiDAR.
  - dron57 2y ago
    In China there are. But of course the hardware and supplier integration is much easier for them than for American competitors.

majormajor 2y ago

How much of the Tesla failure to catch up with Waymo in self-driving is because of a Elon-dictated limitation on the tools and technologies they can use? Elon threw out a lot of the "R" part of R&D and said "just develop this approach I chose." The critiques of Tesla self-driving are not saying it isn't a hard problem, they are the: * Elon acts like it's an easier problem than it is in terms of constraining how his company approaches it * Elon ALSO acts like it's an easier problem than it is in terms of his claims about when it will be done, in a way that offers potential harm to purchasers and investors It's hard to say he's "trying his best" to be honest about the timelines when they've slipped this many times.

aetherspawn 2y ago
Are there any consumer cars fitted with LiDAR that also advertise FSD capability? If not: perhaps something like a Waymo fit-out is way outside a consumers normal capability to afford, or even clean and maintain? I’m not convinced either way yet. But I think the need to fulfill the FSD promise to prior buyers is one reason why FSD would need to happen without LiDAR.
- dron57 2y ago
  In China there are. But of course the hardware and supplier integration is much easier for them than for American competitors.