7 ms·

Tesla Used Car Price Crashes – Model Y, Model 3 Deals Explode

57 points by bentocorp 2y ago

blackeyeblitzar 2y ago
> Additionally, used Teslas are lingering on dealer lots at a similar rate to other EVs…marking a shift from a year ago when Tesla models moved more quickly than their competitors Sounds like used Tesla prices are returning to normal rather than crashing to some other unexpected level.
- dawnerd 2y ago
  It’s a crash when they’ve been propped up for years as only lightly depreciating. Like ya they should be down this low. If you recall Tesla once even promised to pay back model S owners if their cars were worth less than a BMW? Used. The number of people I’ve heard justify their purchase as an investment is bonkers. Just that alone I’d say calling it a crash is fair. Gonna be a LOT of people underwater.
  - zfg 2y ago
    They bought into the lie that their car would be an "appreciating asset": https://www.businessinsider.com/musks-claim-teslas-appreciate-value-post-purchase-flopped-2024-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/musks-claim-teslas-appreciat... https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-claim-that-tesla-cars-will-appreciate-in-value-likely-wrong-experts-2019-4 https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-claim-that-tesla-c...
TheAlchemist 2y ago
I will just quote the CEO of Tesla, Elon Musk from 2019: "If you buy a Tesla today, I believe you are buying an appreciating asset, not a depreciating asset." And the reason: "Musk's prediction is based on two assumptions: Tesla vehicles will be able to drive themselves without any human input by the end of 2019, and customers will be able to make money from their vehicles by including them in an autonomous ride-hailing service Musk says will be ready next year." As Elon would say "Let that sink in". This is one of the major reasons he's in the White House now. Otherwise he would be in prison.
- Freedom2 2y ago
  Thanks for the quote! Do you happen to have a source for that quote? Other than that, you suggest Musk would otherwise “be in prison.” Under which legal framework or statute should a CEO face criminal liability for a failed technological prediction or delayed product rollout?
  - TheAlchemist 2y ago
    It's from this interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEv99vxKjVI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEv99vxKjVI I think he also repeated that on an investor call later. As for prison, just ask Trevor Milton or Elizabeth Holmes.
    - lern_too_spel 2y ago
      Theranos was private, and its valuation went to 0. Tesla is public, and it lives as a meme stock. As long as enough fools believe Tesla will have self-driving taxis within Musk's latest timeline, the price can stay up, and nobody will sue. Instead, the investors voted to give him money that they had no obligation to give him.
      - TheAlchemist 2y ago
        This is a good take - 'As long as enough fools believe Tesla will have self-driving taxis within Musk's latest timeline, the price can stay up, and nobody will sue'. What I'm describing is what happens after the pool of fools is exhausted.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - heartbreak 2y ago
    Regarding prison, OP is making a reference to an interview of Elon Musk by Tucker Carlson. https://youtu.be/k89aYdZOC_I?si=didH8UhYUIz7Y1zy https://youtu.be/k89aYdZOC_I?si=didH8UhYUIz7Y1zy (link to the video snippet on the Tucker Carlson YouTube channel).
jamesy0ung 2y ago
That is insane value for money, if you don't mind the stigma of owning a Tesla. It seems like a used Tesla would be a better deal since most of the parts don't wear out and require maintenance like a petrol car. You can even check the status of the battery from service mode. Reddit seems to suggest high mileage Model 3's are pretty good in terms of reliability.
- sharkweek 2y ago
  Have seen a few in Seattle where people have replaced the Tesla branding with Honda or Totoya decals. Obviously not fooling anyone but gave me a chuckle.
- bluGill 2y ago
  tires, shocks, and other suspention parts still wear out. the body still rusts. The battery won't last forever. Mice can still chew your wires. The seats still wear. As do door parts.
  - prepend 2y ago
    I’m not sure the number of wires chewed through by mice really affects the maintenance costs of any car. While possible, it’s rare enough not to register things like oil, filters, coolant, sparkplugs, etc and the massive amount of things that require maintenance in ICE vs BEV. It’s not they there are no costs, it’s that costs are exponentially lower.
    - bluGill 2y ago
      those things you mention are cheap. you have to do them of course but a set of tires is a similar price as all of those things over the life of the tire.
    - Marsymars 2y ago
      More than half of the maintenance costs on my vehicle over the past decade have been components that aren't ICE-specific.
- 2y ago
streptomycin 2y ago
The average price for a used Y has dropped more than $6,000 over the last 12 months to about $30K this month, as shown in the CarGurus chart below. If you go back even further to March 2023, the bottom has dropped out of Model Y pricing, falling more than $20,000. Is much of that driven by the price of new Model Ys declining? I bought one last year and (after accounting for rebates/incentives) it was less than half the price of a few years ago. That may suck for people who bought at the high price and want to resell, because of course they won't be able to sell a used Model Y for more than a new one, so that puts a hard upper limit on the value of used ones. But it's kind of awesome for the rest of us.
prepend 2y ago
“ Tesla Model Y average used price has dropped” Wouldn’t this chart be more likely due to just Model Y being a relatively new car and more used coming into the market, off leases, etc. It seems silly to compare overall prices without comparing similar models like what a 2018 with 40k miles cost last year vs a 2019 with 40k miles now. Ys came out in 2020 and really got popular in 2021-2, so it makes sense that initially used car prices would be higher for 1 year old cars vs when those care are 2 and 3 and 4 years. And depreciation is high in early years so this seems kind of normal.
duxup 2y ago
Has there been a situation where a company leader has potentially tanked sales because of themselves in this very non business related manner? This is a strange timeline.
- pestatije 2y ago
  sure it has, a company called Twitter (now not no more) comes to mind
  - duxup 2y ago
    Well being silly and over bidding does seem to happen. Not exactly the same as Tesla, but I get what you’re saying.
- nunez 2y ago
  My Pillow?
- rsynnott 2y ago
  Ratner’s Group, previously a major (market cap ~1bn pounds in 1990) jewellery chain; the CEO gave a speech in which he pointed out that it sold cheap crap, resulting in a loss of 500m pounds, its near collapse, and his firing: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_Ratner https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_Ratner That was a one-off really stupid comment, tho, so a little different. I mean, realistically, this situation, where the CEO of a large public company has become a public official and is running around doing Nazi salutes and calling people the r-word on twitter is kinda unique; nothing like that has happened before. Even just a CEO of a large public company becoming a public official while keeping the CEO is pretty deviant; that's really not done.
sleepyguy 2y ago
One can look at the Model S trajectories to see where this is all going. I was looking at a 2018 Model S 75d with 100k on it in very good condition (Texas car). Owner was asking for $18k with lifetime SuperCharging Free. With the additional Gov Tax Credit ($4k) on the used Tesla, the car is a good deal (S14k). But if I were to consider a used Tesla, I wouldn't pay more than what a battery replacement cost. I could deal with the other problems like control arms and coolant leaks, but the replacement of the Battery/BMS is a risky proposition for me if it is no longer under warranty.
jerlam 2y ago
With the new Model Y ‘Juniper’ being delivered to the first customers on Saturday, expect a sell-off of the prior generation Y Do people often sell their current, functioning vehicle to buy a slightly facelifted vehicle of the same model? Sure people will buy a bigger, faster, or more fuel-efficient car. But I don't know people who will spend 20k or so to get pretty much the same car. And if your previous (less than 8 year old) Tesla had significant problems, I wouldn't be buying another one.
- mingus88 2y ago
  The sell off is not due to anyone trading up for the newer model; those aren’t selling either. It’s folk selling off what they have because the value is in free fall so they need to get what they can before the value drops even further.
cjoelrun 2y ago
They chose to focus on Model Y because a new design just came out. Apples to apples comparison 90 day change of prices Model 3: -4.41% to Ioniq 6: -3.38%. Both mid range electrics. I'm always looking for a deal. Nothing spectacular yet. https://www.cargurus.com/research/price-trends/Hyundai-Ioniq-6-d3297 https://www.cargurus.com/research/price-trends/Hyundai-Ioniq... https://www.cargurus.com/research/price-trends/Tesla-Model-3-d2475 https://www.cargurus.com/research/price-trends/Tesla-Model-3...

57 points by bentocorp 2y ago

> Additionally, used Teslas are lingering on dealer lots at a similar rate to other EVs…marking a shift from a year ago when Tesla models moved more quickly than their competitors Sounds like used Tesla prices are returning to normal rather than crashing to some other unexpected level.

dawnerd 2y ago
It’s a crash when they’ve been propped up for years as only lightly depreciating. Like ya they should be down this low. If you recall Tesla once even promised to pay back model S owners if their cars were worth less than a BMW? Used. The number of people I’ve heard justify their purchase as an investment is bonkers. Just that alone I’d say calling it a crash is fair. Gonna be a LOT of people underwater.
- zfg 2y ago
  They bought into the lie that their car would be an "appreciating asset": https://www.businessinsider.com/musks-claim-teslas-appreciate-value-post-purchase-flopped-2024-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/musks-claim-teslas-appreciat... https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-claim-that-tesla-cars-will-appreciate-in-value-likely-wrong-experts-2019-4 https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-claim-that-tesla-c...

TheAlchemist 2y ago

I will just quote the CEO of Tesla, Elon Musk from 2019: "If you buy a Tesla today, I believe you are buying an appreciating asset, not a depreciating asset." And the reason: "Musk's prediction is based on two assumptions: Tesla vehicles will be able to drive themselves without any human input by the end of 2019, and customers will be able to make money from their vehicles by including them in an autonomous ride-hailing service Musk says will be ready next year." As Elon would say "Let that sink in". This is one of the major reasons he's in the White House now. Otherwise he would be in prison.

Freedom2 2y ago
Thanks for the quote! Do you happen to have a source for that quote? Other than that, you suggest Musk would otherwise “be in prison.” Under which legal framework or statute should a CEO face criminal liability for a failed technological prediction or delayed product rollout?
- TheAlchemist 2y ago
  It's from this interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEv99vxKjVI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEv99vxKjVI I think he also repeated that on an investor call later. As for prison, just ask Trevor Milton or Elizabeth Holmes.
  - lern_too_spel 2y ago
    Theranos was private, and its valuation went to 0. Tesla is public, and it lives as a meme stock. As long as enough fools believe Tesla will have self-driving taxis within Musk's latest timeline, the price can stay up, and nobody will sue. Instead, the investors voted to give him money that they had no obligation to give him.
    - TheAlchemist 2y ago
      This is a good take - 'As long as enough fools believe Tesla will have self-driving taxis within Musk's latest timeline, the price can stay up, and nobody will sue'. What I'm describing is what happens after the pool of fools is exhausted.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- heartbreak 2y ago
  Regarding prison, OP is making a reference to an interview of Elon Musk by Tucker Carlson. https://youtu.be/k89aYdZOC_I?si=didH8UhYUIz7Y1zy https://youtu.be/k89aYdZOC_I?si=didH8UhYUIz7Y1zy (link to the video snippet on the Tucker Carlson YouTube channel).

jamesy0ung 2y ago

That is insane value for money, if you don't mind the stigma of owning a Tesla. It seems like a used Tesla would be a better deal since most of the parts don't wear out and require maintenance like a petrol car. You can even check the status of the battery from service mode. Reddit seems to suggest high mileage Model 3's are pretty good in terms of reliability.

sharkweek 2y ago
Have seen a few in Seattle where people have replaced the Tesla branding with Honda or Totoya decals. Obviously not fooling anyone but gave me a chuckle.
bluGill 2y ago
tires, shocks, and other suspention parts still wear out. the body still rusts. The battery won't last forever. Mice can still chew your wires. The seats still wear. As do door parts.
- prepend 2y ago
  I’m not sure the number of wires chewed through by mice really affects the maintenance costs of any car. While possible, it’s rare enough not to register things like oil, filters, coolant, sparkplugs, etc and the massive amount of things that require maintenance in ICE vs BEV. It’s not they there are no costs, it’s that costs are exponentially lower.
  - bluGill 2y ago
    those things you mention are cheap. you have to do them of course but a set of tires is a similar price as all of those things over the life of the tire.
  - Marsymars 2y ago
    More than half of the maintenance costs on my vehicle over the past decade have been components that aren't ICE-specific.
2y ago

streptomycin 2y ago

The average price for a used Y has dropped more than $6,000 over the last 12 months to about $30K this month, as shown in the CarGurus chart below. If you go back even further to March 2023, the bottom has dropped out of Model Y pricing, falling more than $20,000. Is much of that driven by the price of new Model Ys declining? I bought one last year and (after accounting for rebates/incentives) it was less than half the price of a few years ago. That may suck for people who bought at the high price and want to resell, because of course they won't be able to sell a used Model Y for more than a new one, so that puts a hard upper limit on the value of used ones. But it's kind of awesome for the rest of us.

prepend 2y ago

“ Tesla Model Y average used price has dropped” Wouldn’t this chart be more likely due to just Model Y being a relatively new car and more used coming into the market, off leases, etc. It seems silly to compare overall prices without comparing similar models like what a 2018 with 40k miles cost last year vs a 2019 with 40k miles now. Ys came out in 2020 and really got popular in 2021-2, so it makes sense that initially used car prices would be higher for 1 year old cars vs when those care are 2 and 3 and 4 years. And depreciation is high in early years so this seems kind of normal.

duxup 2y ago

Has there been a situation where a company leader has potentially tanked sales because of themselves in this very non business related manner? This is a strange timeline.

pestatije 2y ago
sure it has, a company called Twitter (now not no more) comes to mind
- duxup 2y ago
  Well being silly and over bidding does seem to happen. Not exactly the same as Tesla, but I get what you’re saying.
nunez 2y ago
My Pillow?
rsynnott 2y ago
Ratner’s Group, previously a major (market cap ~1bn pounds in 1990) jewellery chain; the CEO gave a speech in which he pointed out that it sold cheap crap, resulting in a loss of 500m pounds, its near collapse, and his firing: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_Ratner https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_Ratner That was a one-off really stupid comment, tho, so a little different. I mean, realistically, this situation, where the CEO of a large public company has become a public official and is running around doing Nazi salutes and calling people the r-word on twitter is kinda unique; nothing like that has happened before. Even just a CEO of a large public company becoming a public official while keeping the CEO is pretty deviant; that's really not done.

sleepyguy 2y ago

One can look at the Model S trajectories to see where this is all going. I was looking at a 2018 Model S 75d with 100k on it in very good condition (Texas car). Owner was asking for $18k with lifetime SuperCharging Free. With the additional Gov Tax Credit ($4k) on the used Tesla, the car is a good deal (S14k). But if I were to consider a used Tesla, I wouldn't pay more than what a battery replacement cost. I could deal with the other problems like control arms and coolant leaks, but the replacement of the Battery/BMS is a risky proposition for me if it is no longer under warranty.

jerlam 2y ago

With the new Model Y ‘Juniper’ being delivered to the first customers on Saturday, expect a sell-off of the prior generation Y Do people often sell their current, functioning vehicle to buy a slightly facelifted vehicle of the same model? Sure people will buy a bigger, faster, or more fuel-efficient car. But I don't know people who will spend 20k or so to get pretty much the same car. And if your previous (less than 8 year old) Tesla had significant problems, I wouldn't be buying another one.

mingus88 2y ago
The sell off is not due to anyone trading up for the newer model; those aren’t selling either. It’s folk selling off what they have because the value is in free fall so they need to get what they can before the value drops even further.

cjoelrun 2y ago

They chose to focus on Model Y because a new design just came out. Apples to apples comparison 90 day change of prices Model 3: -4.41% to Ioniq 6: -3.38%. Both mid range electrics. I'm always looking for a deal. Nothing spectacular yet. https://www.cargurus.com/research/price-trends/Hyundai-Ioniq-6-d3297 https://www.cargurus.com/research/price-trends/Hyundai-Ioniq... https://www.cargurus.com/research/price-trends/Tesla-Model-3-d2475 https://www.cargurus.com/research/price-trends/Tesla-Model-3...