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Elon’s antics certainly haven’t helped things, but the real story is legitimate alternatives finally entering the market from multiple OEMs (especially BYD) and

Elon’s antics certainly haven’t helped things, but the real story is legitimate alternatives finally entering the market from multiple OEMs (especially BYD) and Tesla’s absolute face plant on model development. A large portion of Tesla’s sales were driven by a lack of decent alternatives if you wanted a BEV. Today that’s no longer the case, especially in Europe and China. And instead of pushing for a new small Model 2 with global appeal, they launched Cybertruck and Cybercab. Meanwhile Model S and X are just plain old. This is becoming a case study in 1) squandering a market lead, and 2) the danger of making devil’s bargains with China.

averageRoyalty 2y ago
It's also worth noting the S and X haven't been available in Australia for years (and I assume some other countries), which is probably a limiting factor too.
- threeseed 2y ago
  But that doesn't explain the massive drop in sales. It really is a combination of better and cheaper Chinese EVs, Trump negatively impacting Australia e.g. tariffs, undermining security and Musk's antics e.g. Nazi salute etc.
  - csa 2y ago
    > But that doesn't explain the massive drop in sales. New model y releasing in May. This may not explain all of the drop off, but I’m certain this refreshed model explains some of it.
    - threeseed 2y ago
      Thankfully, we only have a few months before this excuse runs dry. Tesla has had the slowest and most minor refresh cycles of any car marker in my lifetime and it has had a minimal impact on sales. Not sure why a refreshed Y is suddenly going to result in a 70% increase in sales. Especially when in the next few weeks Trump/Musk are expected to start a trade war with Australia.
      - mschuster91 2y ago
        > Tesla has had the slowest and minimal refresh cycles of any car marker in my lifetime and it has had a minimal impact on sales. The thing is Tesla operates on a "continuous refresh" model, they constantly iterate on all aspects of their design. The downside of this is it makes supply chains for spare parts an utter damn nightmare, which is why spare parts are so hard to come by.
        skolos 2y ago
        They did operate on a "continuous refresh" basis. However, it mostly stopped for almost 2 years now. Other than HW4 I don't think anything else is different between current models and their iterations 2 years ago. Edit: mostly speaking about Model Y, as Model 3 had actual refresh recently.
        semi-extrinsic 2y ago
        The other downside is that us other drivers get to experience their beta testing in prod. Few things are as annoying as driving behind a Model Y where the adaptive high beams don't work properly, and getting flashed by every oncoming car for miles on end.
  - Animats 2y ago
    Yes. Electric cars are getting simpler. Lithium-iron-phosphate batteries are safer. BYD has an "E-axle" kit, where motor, axle, and differential are a single unit. That goes with a power electronics box and battery.[1] Talks CANbus to the controls. Plug everything together and put a body on top, and you have a car. Or a truck. EVs from all manufacturers are getting much cheaper. Margins are decreasing. This is a big problem for Tesla, with their grossly inflated stock price. Musk liked to say that Tesla investors are not investing in a car company, they are betting on Tesla's technology. What technology? Tesla is way behind Waymo in self-driving. There are at least four other humanoid robots as good as Tesla's, none profitable. Tesla is nowhere in solid-state batteries. Rivian is outselling all other US makers in electric pickup trucks. Rivian's truck is not weird, like the Cybertruck, and it seems to be a decent pickup truck, although overpriced. I see them being driven around, often being used to do truck things, not just car things. Even in the US, with protectionism keeping BYD out, Tesla isn't doing that well any more. [1] https://insideevs.com/news/738606/byd-ev-teardown-impresses-japan/ https://insideevs.com/news/738606/byd-ev-teardown-impresses-...
  - sngltoon 2y ago
    Nobody in europe is buying Chinese evs? Teslas are hot garbage. Also the real car manufacturers have better alternatives now. Experience matters. The sales figures are from before he went full Nazi. Some Teslas are banned for safety reasons in UK and Europe. That's how shit they are. Anyway - who is going to want a car that will be set on fire or at the very least keyed down every side within a week of owning it? Insurance costs alone will make them prohibitive to buy. Musk isn't going to last long anyway. He's on a death spiral. Hope he dies screaming. Nazi scum. SELL $TSLA
- lotsofpulp 2y ago
  3 and Y compose 95% of Tesla’s sales. Not offering S and X does not move the needle. https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-fourth-quarter-2024-production-deliveries-and-deployments https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-fourth-quarter-2024...
  - forrestthewoods 2y ago
    Not sure why you’re getting downvoted. You’re completely correct.
  - averageRoyalty 2y ago
    Makes sense, just adding the data point though. They weren't a common car here before that either.
comfysocks 2y ago
Model 2 might seem like the sensible move, but it is also a capitulation to the idea that Tesla is just a “car company” and has to compete on price and is destined for the inevitable race to the bottom with the likes of byd in an increasingly commoditized market. Cybercab is doubling down on the speculative fiction future that fuels stock valuations that are out of line with the rest of the industry.
- plusmax1 2y ago
  You are right. However, I think I agree with the vision, too bad its Musk+Tesla. I do think in the end we won't each own a car. It's so incredibly inefficient to have individually owned cars just rotting away on the side of the road and in car parks waiting for their owner. It would be so much better for everyone if no one, except enthusiasts, would own a car. And you could just grab an "auto taxi" wherever you are within a few minutes instead. Perhaps someday...
  - puppable 2y ago
    I think Musk should be more bold in his vision here. What if instead of a cybercab that seats just two people, we could come up with an even bigger one that seats many people at once? And then maybe we could have it drive on a predictable, efficient route that covers multiple popular destinations, instead of just going from point A to point B. Has anyone considered building something like this?
    - Kirby64 2y ago
      They literally did this in the announcement for the cybercab. Look up the “Tesla Robovan”. It was clearly a proof of concept, but in theory it’s a good idea. Claimed to be able to seat 20 people.
      - pasttense01 2y ago
        I think puppable is referring to a traditional bus following a traditional bus route.
wat10000 2y ago
That might tie back to Elon’s antics. Tesla seems to be mostly leaderless since Elon decided that his mission was pushing right-wing populism instead of sustainable transportation and Mars.
coryrc 2y ago
Anecdote: my wife wanted to trade up from a 3 to a Y. We won't so long as Elon is involved. I also have an "Occupy Mars" shirt. It was one thing to bandwagon onto some topical events by a CEO who was touting Tesla's 100/100 lgbt friendliness rating and progressing toward human exploration, then one seig heiling and throwing the whole government into disarray and betraying our allies.
- jordanb 2y ago
  Personally the "Occupy Mars" thing rubbed me the wrong way when it came out. The message seemed to be "don't worry about inequality or the rise of the oligarchy because it'll get humans to Mars." I hope we can now all see that 1) it won't get us to mars but 2) it will bring us a total-recall like dystopia.
  - _DeadFred_ 2y ago
    Relevant (Archive footage of Elon on Mars when someone in your district tweets something he doesn't like): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8lT-Sn-HqE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8lT-Sn-HqE
whizzter 2y ago
Neither the competition or the antics are the cause. The combination however has been highly toxic for Tesla, like Apple it had an initial lead and a high trust factor due to size, experience and perceived tech lead. This also allowed them to charge a premium compared to the other makers. Elon single-handedly eroded most of the trust factor and now that people are looking at alternatives (and being happy), they'll notice that there isn't much of a reason to be paying the premium in 2025 (not like 5-10 years ago). The biggest question now is if they can ever recapture the position they held even with Elon gone or if they're yet another BEV automaker, trust as the saying goes is hard to gain and easy to squander (And even if Elon is gone, some of the previous halo goes with him but the antipathy cannot be gotten over with him in the reins, catch-22).
- mcv 2y ago
  I think it's pretty obvious that the antics are a bit part of it. It's a big part in how Musk is eroding the trust in Tesla, but more than that, a car is also an image, a feeling. A few years ago, Tesla was widely loved ajd many people hoped to buy one some day, including me. Now lots of people wouldn't want to be caught dead in one. And the real big factor are his support for Trump and his weird and destructive antics these past few months. There was competition a year ago, buy it's only now that sales are really falling off a cliff. I honestly don't think Tesla wil exist in a couple of years. Musk will have made the brand too toxic.
  - ryandrake 2y ago
    It's honestly mind-blowing watching people desperately reach for anything, anything to explain the brand's sudden fall, out of nowhere. Even calling Elon's actions "antics" serves to downplay it. This isn't "antics" and it wasn't an "odd gesture" or whatever euphemism his supporters keep trying to use to downplay what happened. The CEO did a Nazi salute on stage. It's on video, and it's very, very obvious. But no, it's not that. Surely anything but that! It's definitely a vague, complex web of market dynamics that's the real cause of the brand's downfall.
    - 2y ago
lavezzi 2y ago
> Elon’s antics certainly haven’t helped things Doing Nazi salutes might drive sales in the US, but this is the understatement of the year.
- hedora 2y ago
  Yeah; they’re going to nail the EV market for coal-rolling neo-nazis with “drill-baby-drill” bumper stickers. The rest of the US? Not so much.
hedora 2y ago
Also, Cybertruck has three competitors in the US. The F-150 is definitely better for truck stuff, and the R1T definitely wins for camping/off-roading/recreation. Unlike the Cybertruck, the bed-mounted MAGA flag is optional on those two.
scarab92 2y ago
It’s telling that Tesla’s largest market share loses are occurring in foreign markets where BYD is allowed to compete. If the falls were actually caused by Musks antics you would expect the inverse, with a larger effect in the US and attenuated effects in countries less invested in US politics.
- tim333 2y ago
  If you assumed all markets were equally annoyed with the antics you'd expect more of an impact where it's easy to switch to something else.
  - scarab92 2y ago
    Other countries don’t care about US politics as much as Americans think they do. Especially non-English speaking countries.
    - davkan 2y ago
      Elon is the world’s richest man, not just the states’, and he has been meddling in the politics of other nations such us Germany and the UK.
    - rsynnott 2y ago
      Musk promoted AfD and Reform and Meloni and various Irish far-right micro-parties, and presumably other European far-right parties, and did a Nazi salute on stage. And threatened Poland and Ukraine, and is part of a regime which is pushing a trade war with Europe. Like, I'm not sure why you think he's just a factor in US politics.
sizzle 2y ago
What electric alternatives do you recommend with decent self driving tech for stop and go work commute?
maxnevermind 2y ago
> Cybercab Why do they always try to make a taxi out of it? I mean Waymo, now Cybercab. I would gladly pay a high premium for such a car to be able to work on my laptop on the way from my home to the office while in a car. I don't mind the whole taxi concept for some cases but just not sure about focusing or taking a meeting call from a taxi with strangers.
- hatmike05 2y ago
  Why sell you a product once when they can milk you forever with a service?
eweise 2y ago
Anecdote. My friend's wife wanted a Tesla but after explaining to her about Musk, they are now looking at alternatives.
DiogenesKynikos 2y ago
It's not a "devil's bargain." Tesla's most productive factory is in Shanghai, and Tesla was doing great in the Chinese market. It's not China's fault that Musk chose to prioritize the development of the Cyber Truck over new mass-market cars, and it's not China's fault that he's going around giving Nazi salutes on stage.

averageRoyalty 2y ago

It's also worth noting the S and X haven't been available in Australia for years (and I assume some other countries), which is probably a limiting factor too.

threeseed 2y ago
But that doesn't explain the massive drop in sales. It really is a combination of better and cheaper Chinese EVs, Trump negatively impacting Australia e.g. tariffs, undermining security and Musk's antics e.g. Nazi salute etc.
- csa 2y ago
  > But that doesn't explain the massive drop in sales. New model y releasing in May. This may not explain all of the drop off, but I’m certain this refreshed model explains some of it.
  - threeseed 2y ago
    Thankfully, we only have a few months before this excuse runs dry. Tesla has had the slowest and most minor refresh cycles of any car marker in my lifetime and it has had a minimal impact on sales. Not sure why a refreshed Y is suddenly going to result in a 70% increase in sales. Especially when in the next few weeks Trump/Musk are expected to start a trade war with Australia.
    - mschuster91 2y ago
      > Tesla has had the slowest and minimal refresh cycles of any car marker in my lifetime and it has had a minimal impact on sales. The thing is Tesla operates on a "continuous refresh" model, they constantly iterate on all aspects of their design. The downside of this is it makes supply chains for spare parts an utter damn nightmare, which is why spare parts are so hard to come by.
      - skolos 2y ago
        They did operate on a "continuous refresh" basis. However, it mostly stopped for almost 2 years now. Other than HW4 I don't think anything else is different between current models and their iterations 2 years ago. Edit: mostly speaking about Model Y, as Model 3 had actual refresh recently.
      - semi-extrinsic 2y ago
        The other downside is that us other drivers get to experience their beta testing in prod. Few things are as annoying as driving behind a Model Y where the adaptive high beams don't work properly, and getting flashed by every oncoming car for miles on end.
- Animats 2y ago
  Yes. Electric cars are getting simpler. Lithium-iron-phosphate batteries are safer. BYD has an "E-axle" kit, where motor, axle, and differential are a single unit. That goes with a power electronics box and battery.[1] Talks CANbus to the controls. Plug everything together and put a body on top, and you have a car. Or a truck. EVs from all manufacturers are getting much cheaper. Margins are decreasing. This is a big problem for Tesla, with their grossly inflated stock price. Musk liked to say that Tesla investors are not investing in a car company, they are betting on Tesla's technology. What technology? Tesla is way behind Waymo in self-driving. There are at least four other humanoid robots as good as Tesla's, none profitable. Tesla is nowhere in solid-state batteries. Rivian is outselling all other US makers in electric pickup trucks. Rivian's truck is not weird, like the Cybertruck, and it seems to be a decent pickup truck, although overpriced. I see them being driven around, often being used to do truck things, not just car things. Even in the US, with protectionism keeping BYD out, Tesla isn't doing that well any more. [1] https://insideevs.com/news/738606/byd-ev-teardown-impresses-japan/ https://insideevs.com/news/738606/byd-ev-teardown-impresses-...
- sngltoon 2y ago
  Nobody in europe is buying Chinese evs? Teslas are hot garbage. Also the real car manufacturers have better alternatives now. Experience matters. The sales figures are from before he went full Nazi. Some Teslas are banned for safety reasons in UK and Europe. That's how shit they are. Anyway - who is going to want a car that will be set on fire or at the very least keyed down every side within a week of owning it? Insurance costs alone will make them prohibitive to buy. Musk isn't going to last long anyway. He's on a death spiral. Hope he dies screaming. Nazi scum. SELL $TSLA
lotsofpulp 2y ago
3 and Y compose 95% of Tesla’s sales. Not offering S and X does not move the needle. https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-fourth-quarter-2024-production-deliveries-and-deployments https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-fourth-quarter-2024...
- forrestthewoods 2y ago
  Not sure why you’re getting downvoted. You’re completely correct.
- averageRoyalty 2y ago
  Makes sense, just adding the data point though. They weren't a common car here before that either.

comfysocks 2y ago

Model 2 might seem like the sensible move, but it is also a capitulation to the idea that Tesla is just a “car company” and has to compete on price and is destined for the inevitable race to the bottom with the likes of byd in an increasingly commoditized market. Cybercab is doubling down on the speculative fiction future that fuels stock valuations that are out of line with the rest of the industry.

plusmax1 2y ago
You are right. However, I think I agree with the vision, too bad its Musk+Tesla. I do think in the end we won't each own a car. It's so incredibly inefficient to have individually owned cars just rotting away on the side of the road and in car parks waiting for their owner. It would be so much better for everyone if no one, except enthusiasts, would own a car. And you could just grab an "auto taxi" wherever you are within a few minutes instead. Perhaps someday...
- puppable 2y ago
  I think Musk should be more bold in his vision here. What if instead of a cybercab that seats just two people, we could come up with an even bigger one that seats many people at once? And then maybe we could have it drive on a predictable, efficient route that covers multiple popular destinations, instead of just going from point A to point B. Has anyone considered building something like this?
  - Kirby64 2y ago
    They literally did this in the announcement for the cybercab. Look up the “Tesla Robovan”. It was clearly a proof of concept, but in theory it’s a good idea. Claimed to be able to seat 20 people.
    - pasttense01 2y ago
      I think puppable is referring to a traditional bus following a traditional bus route.

wat10000 2y ago

That might tie back to Elon’s antics. Tesla seems to be mostly leaderless since Elon decided that his mission was pushing right-wing populism instead of sustainable transportation and Mars.

coryrc 2y ago

Anecdote: my wife wanted to trade up from a 3 to a Y. We won't so long as Elon is involved. I also have an "Occupy Mars" shirt. It was one thing to bandwagon onto some topical events by a CEO who was touting Tesla's 100/100 lgbt friendliness rating and progressing toward human exploration, then one seig heiling and throwing the whole government into disarray and betraying our allies.

jordanb 2y ago
Personally the "Occupy Mars" thing rubbed me the wrong way when it came out. The message seemed to be "don't worry about inequality or the rise of the oligarchy because it'll get humans to Mars." I hope we can now all see that 1) it won't get us to mars but 2) it will bring us a total-recall like dystopia.
- _DeadFred_ 2y ago
  Relevant (Archive footage of Elon on Mars when someone in your district tweets something he doesn't like): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8lT-Sn-HqE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8lT-Sn-HqE

whizzter 2y ago

Neither the competition or the antics are the cause. The combination however has been highly toxic for Tesla, like Apple it had an initial lead and a high trust factor due to size, experience and perceived tech lead. This also allowed them to charge a premium compared to the other makers. Elon single-handedly eroded most of the trust factor and now that people are looking at alternatives (and being happy), they'll notice that there isn't much of a reason to be paying the premium in 2025 (not like 5-10 years ago). The biggest question now is if they can ever recapture the position they held even with Elon gone or if they're yet another BEV automaker, trust as the saying goes is hard to gain and easy to squander (And even if Elon is gone, some of the previous halo goes with him but the antipathy cannot be gotten over with him in the reins, catch-22).

mcv 2y ago
I think it's pretty obvious that the antics are a bit part of it. It's a big part in how Musk is eroding the trust in Tesla, but more than that, a car is also an image, a feeling. A few years ago, Tesla was widely loved ajd many people hoped to buy one some day, including me. Now lots of people wouldn't want to be caught dead in one. And the real big factor are his support for Trump and his weird and destructive antics these past few months. There was competition a year ago, buy it's only now that sales are really falling off a cliff. I honestly don't think Tesla wil exist in a couple of years. Musk will have made the brand too toxic.
- ryandrake 2y ago
  It's honestly mind-blowing watching people desperately reach for anything, anything to explain the brand's sudden fall, out of nowhere. Even calling Elon's actions "antics" serves to downplay it. This isn't "antics" and it wasn't an "odd gesture" or whatever euphemism his supporters keep trying to use to downplay what happened. The CEO did a Nazi salute on stage. It's on video, and it's very, very obvious. But no, it's not that. Surely anything but that! It's definitely a vague, complex web of market dynamics that's the real cause of the brand's downfall.
  - 2y ago

lavezzi 2y ago

> Elon’s antics certainly haven’t helped things Doing Nazi salutes might drive sales in the US, but this is the understatement of the year.

hedora 2y ago
Yeah; they’re going to nail the EV market for coal-rolling neo-nazis with “drill-baby-drill” bumper stickers. The rest of the US? Not so much.

hedora 2y ago

Also, Cybertruck has three competitors in the US. The F-150 is definitely better for truck stuff, and the R1T definitely wins for camping/off-roading/recreation. Unlike the Cybertruck, the bed-mounted MAGA flag is optional on those two.

scarab92 2y ago

It’s telling that Tesla’s largest market share loses are occurring in foreign markets where BYD is allowed to compete. If the falls were actually caused by Musks antics you would expect the inverse, with a larger effect in the US and attenuated effects in countries less invested in US politics.

tim333 2y ago
If you assumed all markets were equally annoyed with the antics you'd expect more of an impact where it's easy to switch to something else.
- scarab92 2y ago
  Other countries don’t care about US politics as much as Americans think they do. Especially non-English speaking countries.
  - davkan 2y ago
    Elon is the world’s richest man, not just the states’, and he has been meddling in the politics of other nations such us Germany and the UK.
  - rsynnott 2y ago
    Musk promoted AfD and Reform and Meloni and various Irish far-right micro-parties, and presumably other European far-right parties, and did a Nazi salute on stage. And threatened Poland and Ukraine, and is part of a regime which is pushing a trade war with Europe. Like, I'm not sure why you think he's just a factor in US politics.

sizzle 2y ago

What electric alternatives do you recommend with decent self driving tech for stop and go work commute?

maxnevermind 2y ago

> Cybercab Why do they always try to make a taxi out of it? I mean Waymo, now Cybercab. I would gladly pay a high premium for such a car to be able to work on my laptop on the way from my home to the office while in a car. I don't mind the whole taxi concept for some cases but just not sure about focusing or taking a meeting call from a taxi with strangers.

hatmike05 2y ago
Why sell you a product once when they can milk you forever with a service?

eweise 2y ago

Anecdote. My friend's wife wanted a Tesla but after explaining to her about Musk, they are now looking at alternatives.

DiogenesKynikos 2y ago

It's not a "devil's bargain." Tesla's most productive factory is in Shanghai, and Tesla was doing great in the Chinese market. It's not China's fault that Musk chose to prioritize the development of the Cyber Truck over new mass-market cars, and it's not China's fault that he's going around giving Nazi salutes on stage.