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The guy is remarkable. A Jobs-like visionary. But Space X is fantasy at this point driven by a titan of a personality. Having worked in the space business, I'm

The guy is remarkable. A Jobs-like visionary. But Space X is fantasy at this point driven by a titan of a personality. Having worked in the space business, I'm far more impressed by Tesla, and even Paypal.

InclinedPlane 14y ago
Fantasy? How so? They've launched orbital rockets and demonstrated they can do so far more cost effectively than anyone else in history. They've done the same for delivering pressurized cargo to ISS. And their work on manned spaceflight, heavy lift launchers, and reusable launch vehicles is enormously credible given their current track record and history of unabashed transparency.
buu700 14y ago
If you've worked in the industry (I'm assuming not at SpaceX), I can see how you'd assume that SpaceX would be similar. It isn't. It really feels like a startup here; everything moves incredibly quickly, major advances in launch technology are being engineered and tested all the time at a fairly breakneck pace, and the whole show is run by some pretty brilliant minds (a good mix of younger engineers and veterans from NASA and the private auto and aerospace industries). Regardless of how closely reality ends up aligning with Elon's goals, the progress made here is pretty far from fantastic.
- damoncali 14y ago
  By fantastic, I'm talking about this "Mars for half a million dollars in 15 years" talk. It's crazy ambitious. Space X is doing lots of great stuff in new ways, but it's all stuff that has been done before. There will be a wall of difficulty, both technical and financial, that will prove extremely difficult to overcome. I will even go as far as to say it's a pipe dream (although I hope I am wrong!). But I've always thought part of Musk's brilliance is that he has a way fo aiming for the stars and landing on the moon. The moon is still pretty cool, but it isn't the stars.
  - buu700 14y ago
    Ah, fair enough; that's pretty different from "SpaceX [as a whole] is fantasy" (much more reasonable). As far as financial issues, SpaceX is pretty hugely successful with commercial launch as it is (even more so with the new NASA deal announced this morning); but, worst case financial scenario (as the inside joke goes), "Hey Congress, we're about to send a manned spacecraft to Mars, and some country's flag is going in with them...". As far as technical issues, I can't really subscribe to the idea that the team hasn't accounted for or will inevitably fail to account for some massive unknown/unforeseen/insurmountable blocker on the road to Mars. It's certainly possible, but there really isn't any fundamentally unique problem (that I can see) in a manned mission to Mars which hasn't already been solved in some form in the past.
    - damoncali 14y ago
      Agreed. I should have been more specific. I'm talking only in the context of making a business of sending people to Mars as described vaguely by Musk in various interviews. I am still very skeptical that there is a non-government way to keep someone alive for a round trip. That's a very tough problem to fix with limited finances and time.

InclinedPlane 14y ago

Fantasy? How so? They've launched orbital rockets and demonstrated they can do so far more cost effectively than anyone else in history. They've done the same for delivering pressurized cargo to ISS. And their work on manned spaceflight, heavy lift launchers, and reusable launch vehicles is enormously credible given their current track record and history of unabashed transparency.

buu700 14y ago

If you've worked in the industry (I'm assuming not at SpaceX), I can see how you'd assume that SpaceX would be similar. It isn't. It really feels like a startup here; everything moves incredibly quickly, major advances in launch technology are being engineered and tested all the time at a fairly breakneck pace, and the whole show is run by some pretty brilliant minds (a good mix of younger engineers and veterans from NASA and the private auto and aerospace industries). Regardless of how closely reality ends up aligning with Elon's goals, the progress made here is pretty far from fantastic.

damoncali 14y ago
By fantastic, I'm talking about this "Mars for half a million dollars in 15 years" talk. It's crazy ambitious. Space X is doing lots of great stuff in new ways, but it's all stuff that has been done before. There will be a wall of difficulty, both technical and financial, that will prove extremely difficult to overcome. I will even go as far as to say it's a pipe dream (although I hope I am wrong!). But I've always thought part of Musk's brilliance is that he has a way fo aiming for the stars and landing on the moon. The moon is still pretty cool, but it isn't the stars.
- buu700 14y ago
  Ah, fair enough; that's pretty different from "SpaceX [as a whole] is fantasy" (much more reasonable). As far as financial issues, SpaceX is pretty hugely successful with commercial launch as it is (even more so with the new NASA deal announced this morning); but, worst case financial scenario (as the inside joke goes), "Hey Congress, we're about to send a manned spacecraft to Mars, and some country's flag is going in with them...". As far as technical issues, I can't really subscribe to the idea that the team hasn't accounted for or will inevitably fail to account for some massive unknown/unforeseen/insurmountable blocker on the road to Mars. It's certainly possible, but there really isn't any fundamentally unique problem (that I can see) in a manned mission to Mars which hasn't already been solved in some form in the past.
  - damoncali 14y ago
    Agreed. I should have been more specific. I'm talking only in the context of making a business of sending people to Mars as described vaguely by Musk in various interviews. I am still very skeptical that there is a non-government way to keep someone alive for a round trip. That's a very tough problem to fix with limited finances and time.