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Generally correlates with my own view on the subject. After reading two USDA reports on the subject "Chickens and Eggs" [1] and "Egg Markets Overview" [2] it s

by araes 2y ago

Generally correlates with my own view on the subject. After reading two USDA reports on the subject "Chickens and Eggs" [1] and "Egg Markets Overview" [2] it seemed like the markets are not responding to actual supply / demand issues. The losses, while large "sounding" (30 million), are not really that enormous in the context of 369 million egg laying flock, down 2% from the previous year. And most of the losses were heavily constrained to the Ohio (44%) / Illinois (22%) area. [1] https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/fb494842n/q524mj24t/z316rx705/ckeg0125.pdf#:~:text=All%20layers%20in%20the%20United%20States%20on,3.91%20million%20layers%20producing%20egg%2Dtype%20hatching%20eggs. https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/... [2] https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3725.pdf https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3725.pdf

thegrim33 2y ago
The article you're commenting on states that 115 million egg-laying hens were culled, not 30 million.
- pests 2y ago
  I admit I have not read the article yet but I have done independent research into these stats previously a few weeks ago. I found the 30m quoted number is the monthly cull amount. I have seen many references to the 115m or similar numbers but have no idea over what time period. I had my own ~120m number come up from my calculations: The industry claims it takes 4-6 months to clean, disinfect, hatch and re-grow, and get the chickens to egg-laying age. If you take the ~30m and ~4-6m period, you end up around ~120-180m "missing" egg-laying chickens in the flock at any time assuming this replacement is taking place at expected levels.
  - Jtsummers 2y ago
    The article's 115 million is over 3 years. Your 30 million monthly represents one sampling period within that same 3 year period.
    - pests 2y ago
      I have since read the article and you are correct, thank you.
    - genewitch 2y ago
      Us cull numbers in 2024 were between 130mm and 180mm depending on who is saying the numbers. But I heard our flock numbers in that period were 10 times that. So I'm not sure what to think. I do know it was easy to get chicks this year, so that confused me even more. Perhaps the lack of grocery eggs was because they were incubated instead? I don't know.
      - SoftTalker 2y ago
        > Perhaps the lack of grocery eggs was because they were incubated instead? Grocery eggs aren't even fertilized.
        ryao 2y ago
        Some are: https://www.delish.com/food-news/a63842548/what-are-fertile-eggs-trader-joes/ https://www.delish.com/food-news/a63842548/what-are-fertile-... You will find a number of people who have claimed to have hatched a number of types of birds from store eggs, including chickens.
        soulofmischief 2y ago
        I didn't hatch a live bird, but one time I broke a store egg over a meal in the pan and it was filled with blood, a fetus and a couple tiny feathers
        ryao 2y ago
        We had a similar experience at my house one time, except it was in a bowl and all we saw was blood in the yoke. It had not been quite as developed as the one in your egg.

by araes 2y ago

thegrim33 2y ago

The article you're commenting on states that 115 million egg-laying hens were culled, not 30 million.

pests 2y ago
I admit I have not read the article yet but I have done independent research into these stats previously a few weeks ago. I found the 30m quoted number is the monthly cull amount. I have seen many references to the 115m or similar numbers but have no idea over what time period. I had my own ~120m number come up from my calculations: The industry claims it takes 4-6 months to clean, disinfect, hatch and re-grow, and get the chickens to egg-laying age. If you take the ~30m and ~4-6m period, you end up around ~120-180m "missing" egg-laying chickens in the flock at any time assuming this replacement is taking place at expected levels.
- Jtsummers 2y ago
  The article's 115 million is over 3 years. Your 30 million monthly represents one sampling period within that same 3 year period.
  - pests 2y ago
    I have since read the article and you are correct, thank you.
  - genewitch 2y ago
    Us cull numbers in 2024 were between 130mm and 180mm depending on who is saying the numbers. But I heard our flock numbers in that period were 10 times that. So I'm not sure what to think. I do know it was easy to get chicks this year, so that confused me even more. Perhaps the lack of grocery eggs was because they were incubated instead? I don't know.
    - SoftTalker 2y ago
      > Perhaps the lack of grocery eggs was because they were incubated instead? Grocery eggs aren't even fertilized.
      - ryao 2y ago
        Some are: https://www.delish.com/food-news/a63842548/what-are-fertile-eggs-trader-joes/ https://www.delish.com/food-news/a63842548/what-are-fertile-... You will find a number of people who have claimed to have hatched a number of types of birds from store eggs, including chickens.
        soulofmischief 2y ago
        I didn't hatch a live bird, but one time I broke a store egg over a meal in the pan and it was filled with blood, a fetus and a couple tiny feathers
        ryao 2y ago
        We had a similar experience at my house one time, except it was in a bowl and all we saw was blood in the yoke. It had not been quite as developed as the one in your egg.