4 ms·

The US is extremely chaotic and unpredictable. China is fairly stable and predictable.

by dgellow 2y ago

paulddraper 2y ago
[flagged]
ratatoskrt 2y ago
This is it. China might be authoritarian, but it's acting way less eratic than the US right now.
- janice1999 2y ago
  That may be in part to their 'president for life'. Leaders are not immortal though and transitions between them have seen large and sometimes catastrophic changes. China designed its modern political system to avoid that, only for Xi to undo it and purge younger potential challengers.
  - jimbob45 2y ago
    For life and is 71 in arguably the most stressful job in the world. The risk of mental decline cannot be ignored, particularly as he has now served longer than any US president in all of history. Although I say that and then I went down the rabbit hole of trying to find which individual had the longest tenure of presidency and vice presidency combined. It seems like it’s either Nixon, HW Bush, or Biden.
    - brucehoult 2y ago
      As the US president is more or less in the same position as the monarch in the UK -- the main *official* task is to approve or reject legislation already passed by parliament -- you should perhaps look at the 63 years 216 days Victoria reigned, or 70 years 214 days of Elizabeth II, both far exceeding any recent US, Chinese, or Russian supreme leader. I recently noticed with horror that my birth is now closer to the end of Victoria's reign in 1901 than it is to today.
- akie 2y ago
  The US is not just erratic, it wouldn't be a stretch to call them hostile towards the EU right now.
  - hsuduebc2 2y ago
    If not exactly hostile then definetly untrustworthy, they certainly show that they are willing to blackmail their partners. No one can be surprised that others want to get rid of influence over critical products. I strongly support it. It's like with russian gas once again, even the root of the problem is the same. One man with infinite power and no accountability for his actions. Just for clarification. I don't blame Americans, but at least from my perspective, this electoral system is very radical and gives almost "absolute power" to a person or party that almost always has marginally more support. You do not need to compromise by creating coalitions etc. In the end, it is the fault of us Europeans who blindly believed that any successful candidate would be in our favour and perceived as friendly. Although everyone understands how fragile elections are, this was naively ignored.
  - LazarWolf_ 2y ago
    That’s a pretty insane take that ignores decades of actual history.
    - akie 2y ago
      You need to believe what your eyes are seeing. Canadians are taking Trump's threats very seriously, as is Greenland, as is Panama, as is the EU. And for good reason.
    - fsflover 2y ago
      You mean the history of enshittification by the monopolistic US companies with the lack of any regulation in their country? Also, forcing horrible IP laws on Europe. More details: https://pluralistic.net/2025/02/26/ursula-franklin/ https://pluralistic.net/2025/02/26/ursula-franklin/ And the history of NSA spying on the whole world, see PRISM.
- pipes 2y ago
  "right now" being the key phrase here. On what length of time due you judge stability? The last 75 years or so in China... well amoung other things they killed over 50 million of their own people with a man made famine. The question is if the institutions that produced USA can hold. China on the other hand lacks the self correcting mechanisms that USA has built in.
  - ben_w 2y ago
    > The last 75 years or so in China... well amoung other things they killed over 50 million of their own people with a man made famine. Such an event is also one reason India got my grandparent's generation to leave. And the one about 175 years ago in Ireland probably contributed to both the (eventual) Irish home rule movement and the writing of the Communist Manifesto. While the Great Leap Forward's famine was avoidable in theory, I think that the historical examples of so many others having similar experiences during the transition from agrarian to industrial, shows that in practice the mistakes are very easy to fall into.
  - nostrademons 2y ago
    China has a tendency to self-destruct every 300-400 years. The interesting thing is that many regions of the globe have a tendency to self-destruct every 300-400 years. Europe had major continent-wide cataclysms with WW1/2 in the 1900s; the Wars of Religion in the early 1600s; and the Hundred Years War + Black Death + Mongol Conquests in the 1300s. The Holy Roman Empire lasted from about 900 AD to around 1300 AD. The Roman Republic lasted about 500 years; the Roman Empire lasted another 400-500. I think the logic might be that China just had their civilization-ending cataclysm, and so they're on the upswing now. Ditto Europe. This is probably not the end of the United States either, more like the Crisis of the 3rd Century. But it's just as logical to look back on the 400-year cycle and think "Better invest in the countries that have already had their crisis and dealt with it than ones that are starting to decay internally" than to look back on the last 75 years and think "Wow, that was chaotic, the next 75 years will be equally chaotic."
  - omikun 2y ago
    > they killed over 50 million of their own people with a man made famine ... and they learned nothing from it.
nine_k 2y ago
Predictable to an extent. President Xi has effected a number of rather drastic changes internally; it's possible that external policy changes may follow. It's not as crazy as electing Trump, of course.
hagbard_c 2y ago
Most authoritarian states are 'stable and predictable'. When you meet a lion on the savannah the beast is stable and predictable in that it will most likely try to eat you unless it isn't hungry. Step on a snake and the outcome is stable and predictable in that you will get bitten. It is good for Europe to learn to stand on its - our - own legs, to become less dependent on the USA for territorial defence and probably also to learn the hard way that peace and tranquillity is the exception rather than the rule. Si vis pacem, para bellum. It is not good for Europe to swap dependence on the USA with dependence on China, we're more than 500 million people with access to most of the resources we need to stand on our own legs so let's get crackin'. Also, let's drop the silly panic around Trump, the man is doing what he was elected to do which is put America first. We should do the same, in a serious way. Not in an isolationist way but sensibly. Stop importing the world's problems, stop with the silly self-chastisement around 'climate' and 'colonialism', stop the import of islamism and make serious work of getting rid of the islamist factions which have been allowed to establish themselves or Europe as it once was - the birthplace of the enlightenment - will succumb to the sectarian infighting which destroyed Lebanon after they invited Arafat and his PLO. So, 'Europe first' in the sense that the ideas which formed the continent are worth defending and so are people who subscribe to those ideas no matter where they come from. Those who want to get rid of these ideas to replace them with their own intolerant society - whether that be an islamic caliphate or a Chinese-style fascist [1] surveillance state - are not welcome. I realise this includes a number of EU bureaucrats who are enamoured of the latter system and I would be pleased to see these individuals removed from power, preferably by truly democratic means. [1] Fascism and Communism are closely related so it is not that odd to call the current government form in China by the former name even if they claim to be the latter. See https://www.britannica.com/topic/fascism https://www.britannica.com/topic/fascism for a definition or read what Mussolini had to say about the subject and you'll see the parallels.
- nis0s 2y ago
  For secular and democratic nations, multiculturalism isn’t inherently dangerous if there are principles and ideals around which newcomers to any nation can assimilate and integrate. America attempted that to some degree of success with its melting pot ideals till the 90s, but there wasn’t enough emphasis on civic duty, from either the commoners or the elite. The US founding fathers included everyone in their vision, btw, including Muslims. The failure in any integration and assimilation goals from the past few decades result from enabling unjust narratives which pose America as the only country with the social ills and issues it’s being criticized of, when there isn’t any other country in recent memory with a more socially diverse congress.
piokoch 2y ago
Yup, relying on sadistic, communistic regime that puts people into concentration camps is a great idea! What can go wrong!? For instance trading with Russia, Nord Stream, didn't have any bad results... Oh, crap, no, we have some full scale war going on in Europe now, because Putin thought he keeps Europe on the gas & oil leash (and he was almost right).
- OKRainbowKid 2y ago
  Authoritarian stable regime in the east, or authoritarian and erratic regime in the west. I know which one I'd prefer, long term.
TiredOfLife 2y ago
Stable and predictable in supporting russian invasion in Europe.
- dgellow 2y ago
  It took 3 months for the US to shift from actively supporting Ukraine’s defense to actively undermining it. China is more ambiguous, with a neutral stance, the US is now actively going against Ukraine and Europe’s interests by siding with Putin. So if you have a choice between a schizophrenic, antagonistic US, and a China who doesn’t care much about human rights but wants to keep stable international trade relationships, I’m really not shocked if you pick the later
cynusx 2y ago
It would be a mistake to work with China for several reasons. The EU needs to be in a position where it can decide what is best for Europeans and not be strong-armed or overly dependent on allies that clearly don't share the same concern.

The US is extremely chaotic and unpredictable. China is fairly stable and predictable.

paulddraper 2y ago

[flagged]

ratatoskrt 2y ago

This is it. China might be authoritarian, but it's acting way less eratic than the US right now.

janice1999 2y ago
That may be in part to their 'president for life'. Leaders are not immortal though and transitions between them have seen large and sometimes catastrophic changes. China designed its modern political system to avoid that, only for Xi to undo it and purge younger potential challengers.
- jimbob45 2y ago
  For life and is 71 in arguably the most stressful job in the world. The risk of mental decline cannot be ignored, particularly as he has now served longer than any US president in all of history. Although I say that and then I went down the rabbit hole of trying to find which individual had the longest tenure of presidency and vice presidency combined. It seems like it’s either Nixon, HW Bush, or Biden.
  - brucehoult 2y ago
    As the US president is more or less in the same position as the monarch in the UK -- the main *official* task is to approve or reject legislation already passed by parliament -- you should perhaps look at the 63 years 216 days Victoria reigned, or 70 years 214 days of Elizabeth II, both far exceeding any recent US, Chinese, or Russian supreme leader. I recently noticed with horror that my birth is now closer to the end of Victoria's reign in 1901 than it is to today.
akie 2y ago
The US is not just erratic, it wouldn't be a stretch to call them hostile towards the EU right now.
- hsuduebc2 2y ago
  If not exactly hostile then definetly untrustworthy, they certainly show that they are willing to blackmail their partners. No one can be surprised that others want to get rid of influence over critical products. I strongly support it. It's like with russian gas once again, even the root of the problem is the same. One man with infinite power and no accountability for his actions. Just for clarification. I don't blame Americans, but at least from my perspective, this electoral system is very radical and gives almost "absolute power" to a person or party that almost always has marginally more support. You do not need to compromise by creating coalitions etc. In the end, it is the fault of us Europeans who blindly believed that any successful candidate would be in our favour and perceived as friendly. Although everyone understands how fragile elections are, this was naively ignored.
- LazarWolf_ 2y ago
  That’s a pretty insane take that ignores decades of actual history.
  - akie 2y ago
    You need to believe what your eyes are seeing. Canadians are taking Trump's threats very seriously, as is Greenland, as is Panama, as is the EU. And for good reason.
  - fsflover 2y ago
    You mean the history of enshittification by the monopolistic US companies with the lack of any regulation in their country? Also, forcing horrible IP laws on Europe. More details: https://pluralistic.net/2025/02/26/ursula-franklin/ https://pluralistic.net/2025/02/26/ursula-franklin/ And the history of NSA spying on the whole world, see PRISM.
pipes 2y ago
"right now" being the key phrase here. On what length of time due you judge stability? The last 75 years or so in China... well amoung other things they killed over 50 million of their own people with a man made famine. The question is if the institutions that produced USA can hold. China on the other hand lacks the self correcting mechanisms that USA has built in.
- ben_w 2y ago
  > The last 75 years or so in China... well amoung other things they killed over 50 million of their own people with a man made famine. Such an event is also one reason India got my grandparent's generation to leave. And the one about 175 years ago in Ireland probably contributed to both the (eventual) Irish home rule movement and the writing of the Communist Manifesto. While the Great Leap Forward's famine was avoidable in theory, I think that the historical examples of so many others having similar experiences during the transition from agrarian to industrial, shows that in practice the mistakes are very easy to fall into.
- nostrademons 2y ago
  China has a tendency to self-destruct every 300-400 years. The interesting thing is that many regions of the globe have a tendency to self-destruct every 300-400 years. Europe had major continent-wide cataclysms with WW1/2 in the 1900s; the Wars of Religion in the early 1600s; and the Hundred Years War + Black Death + Mongol Conquests in the 1300s. The Holy Roman Empire lasted from about 900 AD to around 1300 AD. The Roman Republic lasted about 500 years; the Roman Empire lasted another 400-500. I think the logic might be that China just had their civilization-ending cataclysm, and so they're on the upswing now. Ditto Europe. This is probably not the end of the United States either, more like the Crisis of the 3rd Century. But it's just as logical to look back on the 400-year cycle and think "Better invest in the countries that have already had their crisis and dealt with it than ones that are starting to decay internally" than to look back on the last 75 years and think "Wow, that was chaotic, the next 75 years will be equally chaotic."
- omikun 2y ago
  > they killed over 50 million of their own people with a man made famine ... and they learned nothing from it.

nine_k 2y ago

Predictable to an extent. President Xi has effected a number of rather drastic changes internally; it's possible that external policy changes may follow. It's not as crazy as electing Trump, of course.

hagbard_c 2y ago

Most authoritarian states are 'stable and predictable'. When you meet a lion on the savannah the beast is stable and predictable in that it will most likely try to eat you unless it isn't hungry. Step on a snake and the outcome is stable and predictable in that you will get bitten. It is good for Europe to learn to stand on its - our - own legs, to become less dependent on the USA for territorial defence and probably also to learn the hard way that peace and tranquillity is the exception rather than the rule. Si vis pacem, para bellum. It is not good for Europe to swap dependence on the USA with dependence on China, we're more than 500 million people with access to most of the resources we need to stand on our own legs so let's get crackin'. Also, let's drop the silly panic around Trump, the man is doing what he was elected to do which is put America first. We should do the same, in a serious way. Not in an isolationist way but sensibly. Stop importing the world's problems, stop with the silly self-chastisement around 'climate' and 'colonialism', stop the import of islamism and make serious work of getting rid of the islamist factions which have been allowed to establish themselves or Europe as it once was - the birthplace of the enlightenment - will succumb to the sectarian infighting which destroyed Lebanon after they invited Arafat and his PLO. So, 'Europe first' in the sense that the ideas which formed the continent are worth defending and so are people who subscribe to those ideas no matter where they come from. Those who want to get rid of these ideas to replace them with their own intolerant society - whether that be an islamic caliphate or a Chinese-style fascist [1] surveillance state - are not welcome. I realise this includes a number of EU bureaucrats who are enamoured of the latter system and I would be pleased to see these individuals removed from power, preferably by truly democratic means. [1] Fascism and Communism are closely related so it is not that odd to call the current government form in China by the former name even if they claim to be the latter. See https://www.britannica.com/topic/fascism https://www.britannica.com/topic/fascism for a definition or read what Mussolini had to say about the subject and you'll see the parallels.

nis0s 2y ago
For secular and democratic nations, multiculturalism isn’t inherently dangerous if there are principles and ideals around which newcomers to any nation can assimilate and integrate. America attempted that to some degree of success with its melting pot ideals till the 90s, but there wasn’t enough emphasis on civic duty, from either the commoners or the elite. The US founding fathers included everyone in their vision, btw, including Muslims. The failure in any integration and assimilation goals from the past few decades result from enabling unjust narratives which pose America as the only country with the social ills and issues it’s being criticized of, when there isn’t any other country in recent memory with a more socially diverse congress.

piokoch 2y ago

Yup, relying on sadistic, communistic regime that puts people into concentration camps is a great idea! What can go wrong!? For instance trading with Russia, Nord Stream, didn't have any bad results... Oh, crap, no, we have some full scale war going on in Europe now, because Putin thought he keeps Europe on the gas & oil leash (and he was almost right).

OKRainbowKid 2y ago
Authoritarian stable regime in the east, or authoritarian and erratic regime in the west. I know which one I'd prefer, long term.

TiredOfLife 2y ago

Stable and predictable in supporting russian invasion in Europe.

dgellow 2y ago
It took 3 months for the US to shift from actively supporting Ukraine’s defense to actively undermining it. China is more ambiguous, with a neutral stance, the US is now actively going against Ukraine and Europe’s interests by siding with Putin. So if you have a choice between a schizophrenic, antagonistic US, and a China who doesn’t care much about human rights but wants to keep stable international trade relationships, I’m really not shocked if you pick the later

cynusx 2y ago

It would be a mistake to work with China for several reasons. The EU needs to be in a position where it can decide what is best for Europeans and not be strong-armed or overly dependent on allies that clearly don't share the same concern.