3 ms·

> he raised the debt by $5T last time and the proposed budget this time around is similarly raising the deficit further Could you provide links to respectable

by simne 2y ago

> he raised the debt by $5T last time and the proposed budget this time around is similarly raising the deficit further Could you provide links to respectable non-subjective sources?

acdha 2y ago
Even before the pandemic, he was slated to significantly increase the deficit. The CBO had predicted $2T in 2017 but even by 2018 they had updated the deficit predictions by several trillion dollars because the Republican spending increases were paired with lower growth in revenue. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53651 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53651 https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/03/12/trump-vowed-eliminate-debt-years-hes-track-leave-it-least-percent-higher/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/03/12/trump-vow... This time around, they’re looking at additional tax cuts which would only increase the deficit rate. We don’t have a final plan yet but there’s no sign of willingness needed to restore tax rates to anything like previous levels, which is the only way to make the math work: https://apnews.com/article/cbo-budget-outlook-treasury-26b1fc8a13af4537b72660c4a478dd97 https://apnews.com/article/cbo-budget-outlook-treasury-26b1f... > Trump’s proposed extension of his 2017 tax cuts that are set to expire after this year along with new cuts could easily exceed $4 trillion
- simne 2y ago
  > before the pandemic I'm sorry for misunderstanding, but I sure, asked about current Trump policy, not about nearly 10 years ago. - 2000s was one case; 2010s was another case; 2020s are totally new case. And what I really seen on previous Trump, and see now, he is like a burning flame, really looking like he want to do something great. BTW, if you want to remember pandemic, I remember nearly best was Germany chancellor Merkel, but what make me curios, she retired just few months before Russia began war against Ukraine. So I want to see considerations relevant for current case. Thank you.
  - acdha 2y ago
    You can’t just ignore his first term: not only is that debt still here but the reason this is coming up in every conversation now is that the 2017 tax cuts were justified on two grounds - that greater economic growth would make up for the losses (the opposite happened) and that tax rates would return to previous levels in 2025. That places Republicans in an even harder position because simply preserving the TCJA rates makes it impossible to avoid taking on trillions in new debt and they’re trying to make deeper cuts (see my previous comment). There’s no way to make those numbers work without massive cuts to Medicare and the military, or taking on huge amounts of debt. They had originally been hoping to make this a problem for whoever became president after Trump’s second term but Biden winning in 2020 means they have to deal with it, or simply pretend they never cared about debt. Currently they’re trying to see if they can get away with new accounting methods to produce better-sounding numbers: https://www.barrons.com/articles/lutnick-government-spending-gdp-calculation-economy-aaa2b8c6 https://www.barrons.com/articles/lutnick-government-spending...
    - simne 2y ago
      > You can’t just ignore his first term I don't ignore. I just say, if you are programmer you must understand, 10 years is millennia for computers, and federal level is one of most affected fields. So, if Biden don't use new technologies effectively, does not mean, these technologies are not valuable. And nobody is better than trio of Musk-Bezos-Zuckerberg in using new technologies, and they agree to cooperate with federal government. This new pivot is something very special, for some reason, Biden have not such tight relations with independent tech leaders (and Trump on first presidency also failed to do this). https://www.newyorker.com/podcast/the-new-yorker-radio-hour/bill-gates-on-his-new-memoir-and-dining-with-donald-trump-at-mar-a-lago https://www.newyorker.com/podcast/the-new-yorker-radio-hour/... So, what I trying to say, President should not do all things himself, this is just direct violation of management best practices (in management such violation named micromanagement). Instead, President should hire best managers and delegate key functions to them, so they will do best possible. And that is what we exactly see now. For about timing, scientific management also have direct answers - from change tops to begin work need at least two months, plus at least one full month of work. So adequate people with really good understanding, usually considering to see some results after first 100 days of new top executive.

by simne 2y ago

> he raised the debt by $5T last time and the proposed budget this time around is similarly raising the deficit further Could you provide links to respectable non-subjective sources?

acdha 2y ago

Even before the pandemic, he was slated to significantly increase the deficit. The CBO had predicted $2T in 2017 but even by 2018 they had updated the deficit predictions by several trillion dollars because the Republican spending increases were paired with lower growth in revenue. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53651 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53651 https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/03/12/trump-vowed-eliminate-debt-years-hes-track-leave-it-least-percent-higher/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/03/12/trump-vow... This time around, they’re looking at additional tax cuts which would only increase the deficit rate. We don’t have a final plan yet but there’s no sign of willingness needed to restore tax rates to anything like previous levels, which is the only way to make the math work: https://apnews.com/article/cbo-budget-outlook-treasury-26b1fc8a13af4537b72660c4a478dd97 https://apnews.com/article/cbo-budget-outlook-treasury-26b1f... > Trump’s proposed extension of his 2017 tax cuts that are set to expire after this year along with new cuts could easily exceed $4 trillion

simne 2y ago
> before the pandemic I'm sorry for misunderstanding, but I sure, asked about current Trump policy, not about nearly 10 years ago. - 2000s was one case; 2010s was another case; 2020s are totally new case. And what I really seen on previous Trump, and see now, he is like a burning flame, really looking like he want to do something great. BTW, if you want to remember pandemic, I remember nearly best was Germany chancellor Merkel, but what make me curios, she retired just few months before Russia began war against Ukraine. So I want to see considerations relevant for current case. Thank you.
- acdha 2y ago
  You can’t just ignore his first term: not only is that debt still here but the reason this is coming up in every conversation now is that the 2017 tax cuts were justified on two grounds - that greater economic growth would make up for the losses (the opposite happened) and that tax rates would return to previous levels in 2025. That places Republicans in an even harder position because simply preserving the TCJA rates makes it impossible to avoid taking on trillions in new debt and they’re trying to make deeper cuts (see my previous comment). There’s no way to make those numbers work without massive cuts to Medicare and the military, or taking on huge amounts of debt. They had originally been hoping to make this a problem for whoever became president after Trump’s second term but Biden winning in 2020 means they have to deal with it, or simply pretend they never cared about debt. Currently they’re trying to see if they can get away with new accounting methods to produce better-sounding numbers: https://www.barrons.com/articles/lutnick-government-spending-gdp-calculation-economy-aaa2b8c6 https://www.barrons.com/articles/lutnick-government-spending...
  - simne 2y ago
    > You can’t just ignore his first term I don't ignore. I just say, if you are programmer you must understand, 10 years is millennia for computers, and federal level is one of most affected fields. So, if Biden don't use new technologies effectively, does not mean, these technologies are not valuable. And nobody is better than trio of Musk-Bezos-Zuckerberg in using new technologies, and they agree to cooperate with federal government. This new pivot is something very special, for some reason, Biden have not such tight relations with independent tech leaders (and Trump on first presidency also failed to do this). https://www.newyorker.com/podcast/the-new-yorker-radio-hour/bill-gates-on-his-new-memoir-and-dining-with-donald-trump-at-mar-a-lago https://www.newyorker.com/podcast/the-new-yorker-radio-hour/... So, what I trying to say, President should not do all things himself, this is just direct violation of management best practices (in management such violation named micromanagement). Instead, President should hire best managers and delegate key functions to them, so they will do best possible. And that is what we exactly see now. For about timing, scientific management also have direct answers - from change tops to begin work need at least two months, plus at least one full month of work. So adequate people with really good understanding, usually considering to see some results after first 100 days of new top executive.