4 ms·

I'd say it's on hold for four years till they get a new president. In the meanwhile I guess the other members will have to try to manage.

by tim333 2y ago

AlecSchueler 2y ago
In 4 years another administration could come in but there's still damaged trust. If something happens in 5, 6 years from now and article 5 kicks in then even if the US comes to help what is there to say they won't suddenly pull out again 2 years into a war when Vance takes charge? The reliability is gone.
- tim333 2y ago
  I guess you've got to be flexible depending on circumstances. I mean NATO only really got going after Europe elected Hitler and now we have another iffy electoral result to work with.
  - AlecSchueler 2y ago
    What happened in Germany that allowed the US to trust them again?
    - tim333 2y ago
      After the war they seem to have realised the error of their ways. I note with the recent Musk salute Germany had the largest fall in Tesla sales, 80%.
      - AlecSchueler 2y ago
        I think they might have been helped along a little by things like being occupied, becoming economically and militarily reliant on their occupiers and watching all of their leaders face judgement at the Nuremberg Trials. Things haven't gotten quite so extreme in the US yet but it feels reductive to suggest that they can just have a flip flop election and that will show they "realised the error of their ways" like Germany did post WW2.
        tim333 2y ago
        I think culturally most of the US is still pro NATO, it's just Trump and friends who are anti. I guess if Vance succeeds him things will be similar but if the dems win they won't. I'm kind of interested if Russia could become normal if the current regime collapses.
      - tokai 2y ago
        The Allies forced a system of re-eductaion on Germany post ww2. https://digitalcommons.murraystate.edu/scholarsweek/2016/GermanHistory/4/ https://digitalcommons.murraystate.edu/scholarsweek/2016/Ger...
jfengel 2y ago
But what about four years after that? It's just not a good idea to depend on someone who is aligned with your enemies, even intermittently.
51Cards 2y ago
The US has burned trust well past 4 years. This has shown how the US political system enables this. Every 4 years they elect someone who has the power to just toss out everything the previous administration did or committed to. Every 4 years... and the US is so politically divided that it only takes a few percent of opinion change at each election to swing to the other party with polar opposite views. As a result, why would any other country now trust the US in any agreement? (not to mention the large number of agreements they have signed then just abandoned later) Four years is nothing time wise.. barely enough time to get an agreement fully implimented before the US can just say "Nah..." There will be significantly less trust for the US even beyond the Trump era.
scarface_74 2y ago
Why would another Republican President act any differently than Trump after they see how well that works? A majority of the US either doesn’t care about international affairs or they are actively isolationist.
eigenspace 2y ago
It would be delusional to think that this can be patched up with a new president, or that any of America's former allies will be willing to wait around twirling their thumbs, hoping that the next time America flips a coin, it turns out better. The relationship is over. Maybe in 4 years America can start making some initial steps towards patching things up, but even that seems increasingly unlikely at this point.

I'd say it's on hold for four years till they get a new president. In the meanwhile I guess the other members will have to try to manage.

by tim333 2y ago

I'd say it's on hold for four years till they get a new president. In the meanwhile I guess the other members will have to try to manage.

AlecSchueler 2y ago

In 4 years another administration could come in but there's still damaged trust. If something happens in 5, 6 years from now and article 5 kicks in then even if the US comes to help what is there to say they won't suddenly pull out again 2 years into a war when Vance takes charge? The reliability is gone.

tim333 2y ago
I guess you've got to be flexible depending on circumstances. I mean NATO only really got going after Europe elected Hitler and now we have another iffy electoral result to work with.
- AlecSchueler 2y ago
  What happened in Germany that allowed the US to trust them again?
  - tim333 2y ago
    After the war they seem to have realised the error of their ways. I note with the recent Musk salute Germany had the largest fall in Tesla sales, 80%.
    - AlecSchueler 2y ago
      I think they might have been helped along a little by things like being occupied, becoming economically and militarily reliant on their occupiers and watching all of their leaders face judgement at the Nuremberg Trials. Things haven't gotten quite so extreme in the US yet but it feels reductive to suggest that they can just have a flip flop election and that will show they "realised the error of their ways" like Germany did post WW2.
      - tim333 2y ago
        I think culturally most of the US is still pro NATO, it's just Trump and friends who are anti. I guess if Vance succeeds him things will be similar but if the dems win they won't. I'm kind of interested if Russia could become normal if the current regime collapses.
    - tokai 2y ago
      The Allies forced a system of re-eductaion on Germany post ww2. https://digitalcommons.murraystate.edu/scholarsweek/2016/GermanHistory/4/ https://digitalcommons.murraystate.edu/scholarsweek/2016/Ger...

jfengel 2y ago

But what about four years after that? It's just not a good idea to depend on someone who is aligned with your enemies, even intermittently.

51Cards 2y ago

The US has burned trust well past 4 years. This has shown how the US political system enables this. Every 4 years they elect someone who has the power to just toss out everything the previous administration did or committed to. Every 4 years... and the US is so politically divided that it only takes a few percent of opinion change at each election to swing to the other party with polar opposite views. As a result, why would any other country now trust the US in any agreement? (not to mention the large number of agreements they have signed then just abandoned later) Four years is nothing time wise.. barely enough time to get an agreement fully implimented before the US can just say "Nah..." There will be significantly less trust for the US even beyond the Trump era.

scarface_74 2y ago

Why would another Republican President act any differently than Trump after they see how well that works? A majority of the US either doesn’t care about international affairs or they are actively isolationist.

eigenspace 2y ago

It would be delusional to think that this can be patched up with a new president, or that any of America's former allies will be willing to wait around twirling their thumbs, hoping that the next time America flips a coin, it turns out better. The relationship is over. Maybe in 4 years America can start making some initial steps towards patching things up, but even that seems increasingly unlikely at this point.