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That's assuming Putin would use nukes in case Ukraine succeeds in winning back their territory. Which he won't do if mutually assured destruction is credible.

That's assuming Putin would use nukes in case Ukraine succeeds in winning back their territory. Which he won't do if mutually assured destruction is credible. He's not going to destroy the world including himself and everything he loves for Ukraine. Once there are doubts that use of nuclear weapons will be punished, then all bets are off.

danenania 2y ago
The problem is that it’s simply not credible on its face. No matter what is said, there is no possibility of US leaders launching nukes over Ukraine. It’s a bad idea to bluff in situations like this, because when the obvious bluff is called and you are forced to back down, it makes enemies more likely to test all your commitments and “red lines”. While Putin might not be willing to risk MAD either over Ukraine, it’s a lot more believable that he would than that the US would. There have been direct kinetic attacks on Moscow and parts of Russia have been invaded. There have been assassination attempts against people close to him. This is not some far away conflict for him. He’s already taking on a huge amount of risk, a lot more than the US has taken on in a long time—even in WW2 there was no direct attack on the continental US.
- StormChaser_5 2y ago
  If it's not such a far away conflict then why isn't Putin looking for a way to stop? If anything the war shows how little Putin cares about his own people, even those close around him and how willing he is to spend their lives to burnish his legacy. In that case why would you think that any backing down on Ukraine leads to anything other than him or his successors wanting to swallow more? Personally I don't see any real chance of nuclear escalation over Ukraine on both sides. The war needs to end but to do that Putin needs to be given a way to deescalate and claim a win at home. But that can only be allowed to happen if Ukraine is made safe and secure once again and if Putin is willing to swallow that. And I see no evidence of that being true.
  - danenania 2y ago
    There's definitely a chance it does lead to Russia wanting to "swallow more", which is a terrible thing, but that doesn't really change the strategic dynamics. Until they try to swallow territory that is as important to a nuclear-armed enemy as it is to Russia, they will have an advantage and it will be difficult to stop them.
qznc 2y ago
Putin created a system of carefully balanced violent psychopaths around himself. Showing any weakness (like losing against little Ukraine) can quickly lead to a coup there. I can very well imagine Putin think "if I'm going to die, I want the whole world to die with me".
- DennisP 2y ago
  Fortunately, unlike the US, Russia does not give a single person the authority to launch nuclear weapons. Putin would need one of those other psychopaths to go along with him. https://www.ucs.org/resources/whose-finger-button https://www.ucs.org/resources/whose-finger-button

danenania 2y ago

The problem is that it’s simply not credible on its face. No matter what is said, there is no possibility of US leaders launching nukes over Ukraine. It’s a bad idea to bluff in situations like this, because when the obvious bluff is called and you are forced to back down, it makes enemies more likely to test all your commitments and “red lines”. While Putin might not be willing to risk MAD either over Ukraine, it’s a lot more believable that he would than that the US would. There have been direct kinetic attacks on Moscow and parts of Russia have been invaded. There have been assassination attempts against people close to him. This is not some far away conflict for him. He’s already taking on a huge amount of risk, a lot more than the US has taken on in a long time—even in WW2 there was no direct attack on the continental US.

StormChaser_5 2y ago
If it's not such a far away conflict then why isn't Putin looking for a way to stop? If anything the war shows how little Putin cares about his own people, even those close around him and how willing he is to spend their lives to burnish his legacy. In that case why would you think that any backing down on Ukraine leads to anything other than him or his successors wanting to swallow more? Personally I don't see any real chance of nuclear escalation over Ukraine on both sides. The war needs to end but to do that Putin needs to be given a way to deescalate and claim a win at home. But that can only be allowed to happen if Ukraine is made safe and secure once again and if Putin is willing to swallow that. And I see no evidence of that being true.
- danenania 2y ago
  There's definitely a chance it does lead to Russia wanting to "swallow more", which is a terrible thing, but that doesn't really change the strategic dynamics. Until they try to swallow territory that is as important to a nuclear-armed enemy as it is to Russia, they will have an advantage and it will be difficult to stop them.

qznc 2y ago

Putin created a system of carefully balanced violent psychopaths around himself. Showing any weakness (like losing against little Ukraine) can quickly lead to a coup there. I can very well imagine Putin think "if I'm going to die, I want the whole world to die with me".

DennisP 2y ago
Fortunately, unlike the US, Russia does not give a single person the authority to launch nuclear weapons. Putin would need one of those other psychopaths to go along with him. https://www.ucs.org/resources/whose-finger-button https://www.ucs.org/resources/whose-finger-button