I think that applying statistical methodology to the study of history might provide some insights into cause-and-effect and the situations surrounding historica

I think that applying statistical methodology to the study of history might provide some insights into cause-and-effect and the situations surrounding historical events. But, I seriously doubt that there are any "cycles" to be found. For one thing, major events in human history absolutely are (or have been) pivotal on just one or a few individuals. A fun book on this is, "What If?", by Robert Cowley. Also, "How the Scots Invented the Modern World". Being the right person, in the right place, at the right time has been a recurring theme throughout history. For example, the final vote for the unification of Scotland and England was led by one passionate, older man -- who died of a stroke later that night. Had he died the night before, it's likely that his opposition, an almost equally skilled and passionate orator, would have won the vote instead. The fathers-and-sons cycle described in the article is a relatively recent phenomenon, where society is settling down into a more peaceful state overall, and even then, the two greatest wars in human history violate the cycle: World Wars 1 and 2. Popular sentiment in the U.S. was against being involved in World War 2, after the horrors scene by the previous generation in World War 1, so the cycle isn't completely without merit. But, as usual in human history, there are too many other factors involved in the outcome. I also think that history changes a lot depending on how you look at it. There are so many human societies on the planet at any given time, each one doing so many different things, that it's easy to step too far back in perspective by ignoring many of the events of history, and then start to think that you an discern some kind of a pattern or cycle. One of my favorite books for this is "Chronicle of the 20th Century", a collection of short-form news articles and pictures from the U.S. from 1900 through 1987. Flipping through that, it's always stunning just how much is so easily forgotten, how rich and complex each day was for the people living through those years.