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Germany will absolutely not have its own nuclear weapons in 10 years (there are already US nukes stationed in Germany, so foreign ones aren't a change in status

Germany will absolutely not have its own nuclear weapons in 10 years (there are already US nukes stationed in Germany, so foreign ones aren't a change in status quo). Even for a highly industrialized nation, developing nukes is a big project, and all of the upcoming defense spending in the next few years will go to Ukraine and closing some of the gaping holes in conventional forces. Besides, Germany still has deep-seated qualms about weapons and armed forces; while this is slowly eroding, I don't see it going as far as nuclear armament. I find it more likely that Poland will possess nukes in ten years; they're geographically closer to Russia, spend more on defense and have more political will.

honzabe 2y ago
> Germany will absolutely not have its own nuclear weapons in 10 years (there are already US nukes stationed in Germany, so foreign ones aren't a change in status quo). Given the regime change in the US, those would be useless if the goal is to deter Russia, wouldn't they?
- carstenhag 2y ago
  But France has some as well. There's really no way Germany will build some imo.
foldr 2y ago
Germany might buy nuclear weapons from France. It’s a fairly outlandish scenario but far less unlikely than it was a few months ago.
t0mas88 2y ago
Germany won't develop them in the next 10 years. But excluding foreign ones because "that's the status quo" is a bit oversimplified. There is a difference between allowing US weapons under US control (and only to be launched from US planes) to be stationed in the country vs a deeper European collaboration where France stations weapons in Germany for joint European use.
- perlgeek 2y ago
  Germany has its own planes certified for use with US nuclear warheads. Any strike command would need to be a joint US + DE decision. I could imagine that Germany replaces the US warheads with French or even British ones, but not actual ownership of nuclear warheads, nor a situation where a single foreign nation could make the decision to start nukes from German soil without German approval.

honzabe 2y ago

> Germany will absolutely not have its own nuclear weapons in 10 years (there are already US nukes stationed in Germany, so foreign ones aren't a change in status quo). Given the regime change in the US, those would be useless if the goal is to deter Russia, wouldn't they?

carstenhag 2y ago
But France has some as well. There's really no way Germany will build some imo.

foldr 2y ago

Germany might buy nuclear weapons from France. It’s a fairly outlandish scenario but far less unlikely than it was a few months ago.

t0mas88 2y ago

Germany won't develop them in the next 10 years. But excluding foreign ones because "that's the status quo" is a bit oversimplified. There is a difference between allowing US weapons under US control (and only to be launched from US planes) to be stationed in the country vs a deeper European collaboration where France stations weapons in Germany for joint European use.

perlgeek 2y ago
Germany has its own planes certified for use with US nuclear warheads. Any strike command would need to be a joint US + DE decision. I could imagine that Germany replaces the US warheads with French or even British ones, but not actual ownership of nuclear warheads, nor a situation where a single foreign nation could make the decision to start nukes from German soil without German approval.