4 ms·

How close are we to Q-Day?

rbanffy 2y ago
That's very difficult to say. We should all be using quantum resistant cryptography anyway.
citizenpaul 2y ago
I have access to friends working directly on the hardware RnD at one of the main players. When I ask if how close we are to q-day the answer is always well....ummm...............you see.........we are really happy with the progress we made so far and continue to make more progress. something like that anyway. Not a single one ever says yeah real soon or defiantly by this date. The people that work there on other things basically laugh and say probably never but its an interesting job. To me Q-day is the same as every research stage tech, somewhere between tomorrow and never. Disclaimer I never used the term q-day before but am adopting it for ease of commenting.
- citizenpaul 2y ago
  Update I got yesterday. We are seeing error rates lower than anyone else has made public yet. Still nothing about an actual working computer.
sgt101 2y ago
Look at what the major banks are doing. All of them have some sort of post quantum security program. None of them have deployed post quantum security at scale. To me this means that they have a estimate of >10 years <30 years for Q day. I disagree with them - I think >20 years < 50 years... but wtf do I know! I'm a fella on the internet with an axe to grind :)
ktallett 2y ago
We need to prepare for it but there are still a few elements that still need to be worked on. Capacity and size of machine are two major issues at the moment that are being worked on.
- walleeee 2y ago
  > still a few elements that still need to be worked on. Capacity and size of machine Rather an understatement. These are absolutely foundational engineering problems which nobody yet knows how to properly solve.
  - ktallett 2y ago
    I would question if that is true. We have plans that work; using photonic systems instead of electrical signals. However the budget and dedicated focus into researching this has not quite been there just yet. Saying that, there are a few recently young collaborations looking into this more steadily now.
pclmulqdq 2y ago
It's 10 years away. Same as it was 30 years ago.

That's very difficult to say. We should all be using quantum resistant cryptography anyway.

I have access to friends working directly on the hardware RnD at one of the main players. When I ask if how close we are to q-day the answer is always well....ummm...............you see.........we are really happy with the progress we made so far and continue to make more progress. something like that anyway. Not a single one ever says yeah real soon or defiantly by this date. The people that work there on other things basically laugh and say probably never but its an interesting job. To me Q-day is the same as every research stage tech, somewhere between tomorrow and never. Disclaimer I never used the term q-day before but am adopting it for ease of commenting.

citizenpaul 2y ago
Update I got yesterday. We are seeing error rates lower than anyone else has made public yet. Still nothing about an actual working computer.

sgt101 2y ago

Look at what the major banks are doing. All of them have some sort of post quantum security program. None of them have deployed post quantum security at scale. To me this means that they have a estimate of >10 years <30 years for Q day. I disagree with them - I think >20 years < 50 years... but wtf do I know! I'm a fella on the internet with an axe to grind :)

ktallett 2y ago

We need to prepare for it but there are still a few elements that still need to be worked on. Capacity and size of machine are two major issues at the moment that are being worked on.

walleeee 2y ago
> still a few elements that still need to be worked on. Capacity and size of machine Rather an understatement. These are absolutely foundational engineering problems which nobody yet knows how to properly solve.
- ktallett 2y ago
  I would question if that is true. We have plans that work; using photonic systems instead of electrical signals. However the budget and dedicated focus into researching this has not quite been there just yet. Saying that, there are a few recently young collaborations looking into this more steadily now.

pclmulqdq 2y ago

It's 10 years away. Same as it was 30 years ago.