4 ms·

If this really has the potential to compete with Ozempic, then it should have a noticeable impact on Novo Nordisk's stock value [1], but we're not seeing that y

by tromp 2y ago

If this really has the potential to compete with Ozempic, then it should have a noticeable impact on Novo Nordisk's stock value [1], but we're not seeing that yet. [1] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVO/ https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVO/

docdeek 2y ago
The article refers to results in animals which means it is probably years - maybe a decade - from being approved. Novo’s patent protection expires in 2033 [0] so it could be that the market is not yet worried about a potential competitor that likely won’t get to market before the IP protection runs out. [0]: https://www.reddie.co.uk/2024/08/30/the-year-of-ozempic-an-ip-take/ https://www.reddie.co.uk/2024/08/30/the-year-of-ozempic-an-i...
- llamaimperative 2y ago
  And Novo (like many others) is already working on next-generation GLPs that’ll have new patent protection before Ozempic’s ends.
  - leereeves 2y ago
    Even so, competition from other GLP-1 drugs and generic semaglutide should make prices and profits lower.
    - droopyEyelids 2y ago
      If the companies combined can meet demand
      - genewitch 2y ago
        They seem to be able to offer it at $300 if you pay without insurance. The implication being that they make 50 extra bucks because the insurance company only pays $250 for your $1,000 prescription.
Gerardo1 2y ago
I really, really don't think that's a reasonable metric, especially on short timelines. In a few years, when this has been trialed, approved, there are a few manufacturers? Maybe.
hermannj314 2y ago
I am reminded of the economist that wouldn't pick up a $20 bill at his feet because if there was a $20 bill at his feet the market would have already picked it up.
lm28469 2y ago
"The market" contains people like my dad who asked me if I knew about deepseek... 3 weeks ago...
sn9 2y ago
This assumes that NN won't snap it up themselves.
- Mr_Minderbinder 2y ago
  Indeed, if this becomes a threat I fully expect one of either Novo Nordisk or Eli Lilly to buy them out.
timewizard 2y ago
The market is intelligent in the aggregate. In particular this means it's slow to adapt to new information and trends.

by tromp 2y ago

docdeek 2y ago

The article refers to results in animals which means it is probably years - maybe a decade - from being approved. Novo’s patent protection expires in 2033 [0] so it could be that the market is not yet worried about a potential competitor that likely won’t get to market before the IP protection runs out. [0]: https://www.reddie.co.uk/2024/08/30/the-year-of-ozempic-an-ip-take/ https://www.reddie.co.uk/2024/08/30/the-year-of-ozempic-an-i...

llamaimperative 2y ago
And Novo (like many others) is already working on next-generation GLPs that’ll have new patent protection before Ozempic’s ends.
- leereeves 2y ago
  Even so, competition from other GLP-1 drugs and generic semaglutide should make prices and profits lower.
  - droopyEyelids 2y ago
    If the companies combined can meet demand
    - genewitch 2y ago
      They seem to be able to offer it at $300 if you pay without insurance. The implication being that they make 50 extra bucks because the insurance company only pays $250 for your $1,000 prescription.

Gerardo1 2y ago

I really, really don't think that's a reasonable metric, especially on short timelines. In a few years, when this has been trialed, approved, there are a few manufacturers? Maybe.

hermannj314 2y ago

I am reminded of the economist that wouldn't pick up a $20 bill at his feet because if there was a $20 bill at his feet the market would have already picked it up.

lm28469 2y ago

"The market" contains people like my dad who asked me if I knew about deepseek... 3 weeks ago...

sn9 2y ago

This assumes that NN won't snap it up themselves.

Mr_Minderbinder 2y ago
Indeed, if this becomes a threat I fully expect one of either Novo Nordisk or Eli Lilly to buy them out.

timewizard 2y ago

The market is intelligent in the aggregate. In particular this means it's slow to adapt to new information and trends.