3 ms·

A comparison with the Lotka-Volterra equation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lotka%E2%80%93Volterra_equation#Physical_meanings_of_the_equations https://en.wikip

A comparison with the Lotka-Volterra equation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lotka%E2%80%93Volterra_equation#Physical_meanings_of_the_equations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lotka%E2%80%93Volterra_equatio... which are the mathematical explanation of predator prey cycles, shows what's missing in the article and possibly in the research - the explanation for the cycles. Predator-prey cycles can be tied back to biological constants - how quickly prey and predator reproduce, how the availability of prey affects predator reproduction, etc. Thus, if you want to model wolves and sheep rather than foxes and rabbits, you can do so, if you know the various biological constants. I don't get the sense that Turchin has identified the underlying dynamics.

jacques_chester 14y ago
> I don't get the sense that Turchin has identified the underlying dynamics. Then you should read his work. He describes what he thinks are the driving dynamics of the rise-and-fall process.
- essayist 14y ago
  Ok, so I looked at the article again, and got that they focus on population, social structure, state strength, and political instability. It's even more interesting that they identify two cycles with at least some dynamics: 1. the "secular" cycle: in the beginning of the cycle, supply and demand for labour roughly balance out. In time, the population grows, labour supply outstrips demand, elites form and the living standards of the poorest fall. At a certain point, the society becomes top-heavy with elites, who start fighting for power. Political instability ensues and leads to collapse, and the cycle begins again. 2. the "fathers and sons" cycle: the father responds violently to a perceived social injustice; the son lives with the miserable legacy of the resulting conflict and abstains; the third generation begins again. Thanks for the nudge.

jacques_chester 14y ago

> I don't get the sense that Turchin has identified the underlying dynamics. Then you should read his work. He describes what he thinks are the driving dynamics of the rise-and-fall process.

essayist 14y ago
Ok, so I looked at the article again, and got that they focus on population, social structure, state strength, and political instability. It's even more interesting that they identify two cycles with at least some dynamics: 1. the "secular" cycle: in the beginning of the cycle, supply and demand for labour roughly balance out. In time, the population grows, labour supply outstrips demand, elites form and the living standards of the poorest fall. At a certain point, the society becomes top-heavy with elites, who start fighting for power. Political instability ensues and leads to collapse, and the cycle begins again. 2. the "fathers and sons" cycle: the father responds violently to a perceived social injustice; the son lives with the miserable legacy of the resulting conflict and abstains; the third generation begins again. Thanks for the nudge.