Stagflation seems likely, due to the combination of terrible and harmful ideas being implemented at once, in which case the Fed's hands will be tied on rate cut

Stagflation seems likely, due to the combination of terrible and harmful ideas being implemented at once, in which case the Fed's hands will be tied on rate cuts regardless of the unemployment rate. If Trump successfully gets people to think this is all somehow the Fed's fault, the Musk-backed and recently (re-)introduced in the Senate bill to eliminate the institution entirely might get traction. Then there's the "department heads, submit a report in 90 days on whether I should invoke the Insurrection Act" thing that's due in about 45 days. Lots of balls in the air and not enough hands to catch them.