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the probability of 89% of blue counties (in 2020) switching to red counties is a 50-50 chance? can you show your work?
by genewitch 2y ago
the probability of 89% of blue counties (in 2020) switching to red counties is a 50-50 chance? can you show your work?
- roenxi 2y agohttps://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ You'll note that the distribution mode for a Trump win was 312 electoral votes; which is what he got. They do a good forecast - it suggests there was a 50-50 chance Trump wins, and if he wins the most likely outcome is ... exactly what happened. If it was a Harris win the best bet is she would have gotten 319 electoral votes with high correlation in the swing states too.
- genewitch 2y agoyou still didn't watch the video i linked^, and you did not answer my actual question: 89% of counties turning red compared to the 2020 election is a 50-50 chance? Can you show your work? ^ The person in the video explains why thinking it is 50-50 chance is detrimental to the liberal cause.